DexCom Bursts To New High

This past weekend’s edition on DexCom was just out in front of a quick burst to a new all time high. I continue to believe that the widely expected pending FDA Approval on their blood glucose monitoring device will create a much bigger spike in the stock.

As I pointed out in the weekend edition, the stock is hard to buy because there really aren’t any retracements of any note. Apparently, there is big demand and little supply. 

As you can see from the chart, this stock is hard to buy. My advice was to take a partial position or no position until there was a pullback.

If you took a parital position, you have to be happy today.  My guess is the stock will now flucuate between $17 and $19. As it bases, you will have another shot. This move leads me to believe the upside target with the FDA Approval will be more like $25.

Comments and questions are welcome.

TelePlus Arrives at Low Risk Entry Level

Those who were ready to pile in on TLPE as it rocketed up the charts two weeks ago should take notice right now. At a mere $.30, the company’s entire market value is only $25 million. Enterprise value (market cap plus debt) is only $34 million. Yet the company is nearly a certainty to deliver north of $30 milion in sales in ’06, and be cash flow positive in the millions.

Since the stock’s meteoric rise north of $.40 earlier this month, a retracement process has been taking place. This is normal and natural. It is also normal and natural to want to get on board a streaking train when every other lemming is going off the cliff.

There is tons ahead of TLPE on the positive fundamental side to come in ’06. If the telecom pendulum swings back to telecom on Wall Street, this one will shine and get fully valued.

Recent press releases concern fairly high profile new hires. Ford lays of 25,000. TLPE is hiring. Which company do you think is expanding?

The stock has dropped a hair below its 61.8% retracement level. I told you to sell some or all at $.41. Now I’m suggesting it is time to accumulate. If you want to be in this stock, now is the time. $.30 to $.31- Accumulate now. You can be a seller on the next surge if you are a trader. For traders- a $.27 stop loss is recommended.

Questions and comments welcome.

Callisto News Has Hidden Major Implications

Callisto was out with news after the close yesterday, and after doing a little digging I am more and more convinced this stock will be a huge win for long term investors. I’m talking at least a 3 bagger from current levels, and much more for very long term investors. When I say long term, I’m referring to investors willing to hold a stock long enough to qualify for long term capital gains- more than one year.

KAL has licensed a new cancer drug from the MD Anderson Cancer Research Center known as “ Degrasyns”. While in and of itself the market might not quite get the significance, I have done a little research to understand the full implications.

The drug was co developed by  Dr. Moshe Talpaz. Dr. Talpaz is credited with being on the team that developed Gleevec, a cancer drug which was estimated to generate $1.57 billion in sales in 2005. And while I haven’t confirmed it yet, I believe Talpaz was also credited with being a co-inventor of Interferon, a drug estimated to deliver $3 billion in sales worldwide in ’06.

If this 411 doesn’t get your speculative blood boiling, I don’t know what will. When Wall Street grasps the full significance, the stock could be a double from current levels.

On a very short term basis KAL has provided a perfect entry level at $1.50. Last week’s huge volume surge was followed with a pullback.  Good fortune for those who want to own this one.

Own, own, own this stock.

I am writing this at 8 pm, so I have no idea at this time how the stock will open. If you are fortunate enough to see an open somewhere near yesterday’s close, jump in. If the stock gaps big, have a little patience and wait for a pullback. Some sellers will not understand the significance of this news.

$1.70 is the most I would pay tomorrow. If you have to pay that much, just pick up 1/2 of what you want and hope for a more favorable entry level for the other half.

The Scoop on QVC For SHUGR

Many of you have been wondering what happened to the previously announced foray onto QVC for the baked goods/SHUGR package to be offered on Lori Grenier’s show.

Here’s the latest as I understand it. The special offer will still appear on QVC, but not on Lori’s show. I’m not sure how it will be offered, but it will be offered on QVC.

HESG is now awaiting the final content approval from QVC. Once received, a final launch date will be announced. I should have the 411 on the progress, and will let you know as soon as I do.

Comments and questions are welcome.


HDY Streaking To New Multi Month Highs

HDY put in a breathtaking performance an hour before the close on Friday. HDY traded about 75,000 shares in the last 10 minutes of Friday’s trading day, and closed at the lofty price of $3- a level not seen since May of ’05.

HDY has been keeping shareholders abreast of developments in Guinea. According to yesterday’s press release, CEO Kent Watts is in the Republic of Guinea right now meeting with government officials. If he comes away with the long sought after drilling permits, look for the stock to capitulate to the upside in a crescendo move.


By now you should have read the weekend edition on big, steaky moves. With HDY, you are looking at a big streaky move as it is happening.

Is it a sell? In my view, not yet. However, this is shaping up as a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type situation. Here’s the pattern- news before the open, stock gaps up, sellers surface, stocks trades below previous day’s close, sellers really step in and drive it lower. The company has been telegraphing to investors that it is closing in on getting the offshore drilling permits from the Guinea gov’t. If they can pull it off in the next few days, I would expect this stock to streak higher and provide a great selling opportunity for traders. If they are delayed for some days, it will probably drift back down.

The streak will be over when the stock trades lower than yesterday’s closing price after gapping at the open. I am not selling any of my 20,000 shares, and I would advise to hold on as well for the time being. Stand by for future updates- a profit taking opportunity could be coming soon.

My comments are geared mainly to traders- if you are a long term investor lookng for $10 or more,  and don’t want to trade, just stay on the sidelines.

Your comments and questions are welcome.

VirTra Systems Defines Merger Agreement

VirTra Systems announced this morning it has entered into a definitive merger agreement with it’s target acquisition. After reviewing the 8k filing, here are my initial impressions.

First, if completed VTSI will end up with $30 million in annual sales. If they have reasonable cash flow, this will serve to take a lot of risk out of owning this stock.

However, there is a midly troubling element. Here’s an excerpt from the SEC filing:

If the merger is completed, the shares of our Company outstanding at the time of the merger (expected to be approximately 65 million shares) will be changed into 8,512,920 shares, and the shareholders of Virtra Merger Corporation will receive 7,803,795 shares of our common stock. In addition, holders of 141,841 shares of outstanding preferred stock of Virtra Merger Corporation will receive 141,841 shares of a newly created Series A Preferred Stock, with each share of the Preferred Stock convertible into 8.9 shares of our common stock. “

get this deal done on these terms, shares of VTSI will be rolled back or reverse split on about a 7.5 for 1 basis. Anotherwords, every 7.5 shares you own will become 1 one share.

The company will then purchase the acquisition target for 7.8 million shares of stock, or about $6.5 million worth of stock. For $30 million in revenues, this seems like a good deal to me for shareholders.

The one minor negative is the reverse split. 16 million shares at about $1, with $30 million in annual revs seems like it offers a lot of upside.

Shareholders will be asked to vote on this merger. Makes sense to me. I am voting in favor.

Teleplus Profit Alert- Stock Breaks Away

I hope a lot of you own TLPE. The stock has broken away, and looks to be trading up on short covering. When you see stocks run like this in such a short period of time, and then keep tearing up the chart, it’s usually because some one is forced to buy.

TLPE is no doubt going to be a multi year grower, and is probably still quite undervalued as measured against the $55 million in sales and $4 million in EBITDA profits the company feels in can deliver in ’06.

However, now might be a good time to exercise some discipline. If you are a shareholder from when I first introduced the company at $.23, you might consider locking in a partial or full profit. I don’t believe you should be out of the stock- this is far from over- if you sell you should be doing so with the idea of piling back in on a dip.


With this morning’s gap to the upside, the stock has eclipsed a high set many months ago. This is a major technical positive. The chart tells me a little common sense might be in order here. It can’t keep going up in a straight line like this forever.

At this point, I like $.37 (.382 retracement) as the first level to accumulate on a pullback, followed by $.335 (.618 retracement) if the gods smile on you and decide to give you another shot at this one.

Comments and questions are welcome. 

Bad Toys Still Trading With Dividend Attached

If you’re wondering about the Bad Toys announcement this morning, it’s just as it appears. The stock will not trade x dividend today despite the fact that the company had previously announced that January 11th would be the cut off date.

I am hearing anecdotally that the NASDAQ is involved in the dividend distribution process, and that they will have some say in the date the stock actually trades without the dividend attached. Because this is such an unusual event, there is discussion is going on about how the dividend will be handled. Issues under consideration include how the dividend will be distributed- will the company simply send you your shares?, or will they send you a letter stating you are entitled to the shares, and send them to you when Southland opens for trading on their own.

BYTH has given a little ground after being a great trade for the early going in ’06. In theory, today’s announcement really changes nothing, so the stock price really should not be affected. However, if it were to drop in price, I would view it as an opportunity to accumulate. You might have a few more weeks to get on board.

Comments and questions are welcome.






Just When You Least Expect It- NWWV Breaking Out on Big Volume

It always happens when you least expect. Beaten down and oversold NWWV has decided to rebound for no apparent reason. Someone has come along and decided to start buying this stock, and today NWWV is experiencing the biggest volume day in months.

In light of last week’s revelation that the company has turned to the plus side on the cash flow, and that sign ups and sales are hitting record levels, it is not all that unusual to see someone come for this stock.

I have no idea where this is coming from. As I stated in the year end edition and recent BLOG- while we got our heads handed to us as a result of poor third quarter performance, the next generation of shareholders will probably make a lot of money from these absurdly oversold levels.

As pointe out in the last BLOG entry, if you are looking for a beaten down idea where the company has turned up long before the stock, here’s your idea.

As you can see from the chart, NWWV has traded as much volume today as in any day since mid October, and it’s only 2 hours into the trading day.

If the volume continues, look for higher levels. Comments and questions are welcome.

BrandPartners Starting to Get Its MOJO Back

BrandPartners was out with a pretty darn piece of good news early this week, and the stock is beginning to firm up after being treated pretty roughly from Q3 numbers.

In fact, lots of microcap stocks seem to be heading in a northerly direction since we made the turn into 2006. It seems as if someone turned the microcap spigot back on. They are behaving much better.

Typically, BPTR announces $3 to $4 million in new contract signings on a somewhat regular basis. On Thursday morning BPTR announced $5.4 million in new signings. Could Graffico be starting to justify its existence? The press release specifically mentions Graffico landed some of this new business, but wasn’t specific as to how much.

BPTR will restor investor confidence when there is demonstratable evidence that Graffico (their new subsidiary for the sub prime lending space) and BrandPartners Europe are beginning to get some sales momentum. I know the company is very excited about the prospects for Graffico. They also believe BPTR Europe is just a matter of time.

The two new subsidiaries are costing them about $400k per quarter- $125K per month. If their investment pays off revenues could grow as much as 50%. In the interim, BPTR is financing these subsidiaries out of cash flow- no capital required- at the expense of earnings. If their bet pays off, earnings will come back better than ever.

This past week the stock broke a pretty short term downtrend line. I’d like to see some longer term downtrend lines broken to be convinced this one is going to trade back up. The action suggests there are no sellers left. A little more volume would probably help the cause.

I am casting my vote through ownership in them getting these two new subs going. I have $60,000 of personal money investing in this stock- 100,000 shares at $.60, and I’m down about $15k after 15 months.

A quick read of the press release is worth your time. Click here. You comments and questions are welcome. 

NeWave Forming New Wave

If you are looking for a stock that is so cheap, and so blown out that it really has no place to go but up, look no farther than NWWV.

The company made some bad blunders in the first half of 2005. Their core business of a subscription based model which puts people in business on the internet was doing fine. Customer retention was an issue, but the company was on solid footing.

Then they decided to expand. They opened a eBay auction drop off service and a couple of other problematic subsidiaries.  They borrowed a substantial amount of money to set up these subsidiaries, and ended up closing them and getting back to their core business.

The Q3 numbers were just horrendous, and the stock simply melted down. Poor performance combined with year end tax selling brought this one crashing down.

The stock is so oversold it really has no where to go but up, which doesn’t mean you should buy it. It only makes sense to buy it if the fundamentals have turned around.

As we learned in a press release which came out today, NWWV is back on track. They have enjoyed three months of positive operating income. The enrolled nearly 13,000 new members in December alone. In addition and perhaps more importantly, NWWV experienced a 46% increase in enrollment renewal. Customer retention has long been a challenge, and they are moving in the right direction. You can click here if you want to read the press release associated with the improvement.

Technically, there is not much to hang your hat on for this one. The stock is a pathetic picture of a full blown collapse. I can only observe that the stock is finally turning back up, and has broken a vicious downtrend line.

I don’t know what it will take to get this one trading back up more dramatically, but in light of the company’s dramatic turn in corporate performance, and year end tax selling being at an end, I believe the stock is ready to begin a rebound phase. I can’t predict the upside, but I don’t believe there is much downside.

Comments and questions are welcome. 

HDY Poised to Break Out

HyperDynamics is poised to break out in my view. I believe the market is very subtly telling us the company is close to achieving its goal of obtaining permits to drill off the coast of Guinea.

At the end of ’05, HDY telegraphed through press releases that they were very close to solving the political mess in Guinea, and expected to obtain drilling permits in the near future.

If the company were to achieve this milestone, I believe the stock would break out of it’s currently forming “ascending wedge”.

The stock is grinding towards the apex of a sideways triangle where it will either break out to the upside or collapse.

Moreover, this stock has a history of responding to positive news with a very favorable move to the upside.

If you don’t own at least a few shares of HDY for the hoped for breakout out, I would be a buyer right now. I own 20,000 in my personal account at $1.76. I intend to sell all or part if the stock makes a dramatic move up on news. If the stock gaps up,  my strategy would be to sell at least half on the gap.

Comments and questions are welcome.

Teleplus Breakout

Wow, what a nice day for TLPE. Amazing what a little breakout can do for the volume. Now that the stock is getting a little steam, investors are piling in. The $.28 level had been a ceiling for this little stock. Breakout confirmed.

Apparently, the market likes the announcement of the Liberty Wireless acquisition. The stock broke out to a multi month high of $.33 today, and closed on the high of the day.

In addition, the stock traded over 1 million shares, which is a big volume day for this one.

I hope and believe this stock is going much higher. Remember, on a valuation model, one analyst has this stock pegged at $2.10 in 12 months.

It was nice that it took the stock a day or two to breakout after the Tuesday post close announcement. It gave you a chance to accumulate at lower levels.

Now that the stock has broken out, it’s time to exercise some discipline if you want to accumulate more. Wait for the Fibonacci retracement levels to play out.  Your first line of support would be $.30 where you should pick up a partial position. The second level would be $.28 for the remainder. If the stock continues higher those numbers will go up.

Remember, you are investing in a company that should report about $55 million in ’06 and deliver $4 million in earnings. It’s hard to find that kind of corporate performance in a $.30+ stock.

Comments and questions are welcome.

Bad Toys Dividend Spin Off

If you are at this BLOG posting, you have read about Bad Toys spin off of Southland Services. This BLOG posting is provided as a forum for questions and comments on this special situation. If I cannot answer the question myself, I will contact CEO Larry Lunan and get accurate answers.  Please allow at least 24 hours for answers to be posted.