AMW Makes New All Time Low

AMW is now trading at a new all time low. If you are still in this disaster, you are feeling the pain. Today AMW issued a press release stating it had received a letter of non-compliance from the American Stock Exchange. The AMEX has two major concerns- the company’s failure to file its financial statements on time, and the fact that they are in default on a note for $6.2 million and counting with Laurus Funds.

The first issue is easily remedied- just file the damn 10Q. Nearly every other company in the public markets does it- I don’t know why AMW cannot seem to meet their reporting obligation in a timely manner. Certainly, it gives no comfort in terms of management’s capabilities.

The second issue is far more menacing. The issue of the default on the note. One of two things will happen- either they will make some kind of deal with Laurus and come out of default, or they will probably have to file for bankruptcy to try to protect their assets from being seized by Laurus. I have not reviewed the terms of the notes, but I would guess AMW pledged its assets against the note, and Laurus has a UCC filing on the assets. I’m no lawyer, but I believe this means Laurus would get the assets even if bankruptcy is filed. On the potential positive side, I’m sure Laurus doesn’t want a lengthy legal battle, and has no interest in owning the two remaining bottling facilities.

Not much to talk about as far as the chart is concerned, but another new all time low on a big volume spike. I don’t know what will happen here and have no contact with management, but it sure looks grim. You have to make your own decision about what to do, but it sure seems at this point the stock is a sale for a tax loss. I wish I hadn’t been so right when the stock traded up briefly to $.40 in September about taking some or all of your money off the table.

If anyone has any input on whether they would still retain their bottling plants in a bankruptcy, that would be helpful. Please post a comment.


Callisto Out With More Good News

While KAL did not have a notable day on the price appreciation side, the volume in the stock may be setting us up for better days ahead.

In addition to the strong volume day, the company was out with more good news after the market closed today. Atiprimod, the company’s developing drug for the virtually untreatable Mulitple Myeloma, has been chosen for oral presentation at the  American Society of Hematology next month in Atlanta, GA.

The ASH is the most prestigious body of scientists and doctors who deal with blood disorders. KAL will be presenting findings from an animal study and anti-tumor activity in elegant models of multiple myeloma developed by researchers at Dana-Farber, as well as evaluation of genes that are affected in multiple myeloma cells exposed to the drug.

This is a very positive development for both Antiprimod and KAL. Early clinical data is making the blood disorder community take notice. To read the entire text of the press release, click here.

Yesterday’s edition on KAL’s patent for a new colon cancer treatment contained an inaccuracy. The edition stated KAL had received a patent approval. In fact, what they have received is a “Notice of Allowance” of a patent. This means the patent office has decided to allow the patent, formal issuance to come soon. I am informed it is almost always a ”fait accompli”.

Here’s a daily chart of KAL throughout 2005. Note that today was the third highest volume day of 2005.  Past high volume days have preceeded a nice move up in the stock.

It’s all about the volume. Since September the volume has been increasing. If the volume can just stay up there, eventually the stock will break out. Hard to say when, but the way the company is going a better market should deliver a much higher price.


UpSnap Violates Stop Loss

I’m just not willing to get too exposed to stocks trading poorly these days. UpSnap has hit its  stop loss today, and therefore if you are not a long term investor and only in it for a trade you should probably sell this one. Here is what I am looking at technically:

This is an hourly chart measuring back to when the stock started trading some real volume. Therefore, it is a very short term look, but short term is the only way you can look at this stock until there is more history.

If you measure back to when the first volume came in, the stock has violated the 61.8% retracement line. We are at the moment of truth. In the interest of protecting your principle, the stock shold be sold at the current level if you are not prepared to be longer term. It could turn around and head right back up, but sometimes discpline is required. 

If it starts to behave better, we can always go back in.

Global ePoint Busting Out All Over

I know many of you have asking for an update on GEPT. I have spent the last few days trying to figure out why the stock has traded so poorly of late.  I don’t have to try based on today’s action. In case you’re wondering, the company announced that the Reno airport has agreed to buy their video surveillance system. It’s the first fomal sale of this product announced by GEPT.

Based on what happened today one thing is clear. The future of this stock is based 100% on the company’s ability to sell video surveillance systems in the security market- especially airport security.

When the Astrophysics deal fell apart I was very disppointed- after all that would have been cargo scanning security- a wide open field.

The market is telling us loud and clear where the future of this stock lies. If they can combine video surveillance with facial recognition software, this stock will trade extremely well.

Here’s a chart with the OTC Journal’s trading history on this stock. As you can see, I have really hit it right twice. I missed the buy entry level on the third try, but the stock is making up for lost ground quickly. With today’s action, it has returned to a break even.

If history repeats itself, the stock will trade very well for another few days, then start descending again. I would be more inclined be a seller than a buyer right now.

When the stock starts to descend I will try to pick a good technical entry level where we can sit and wait for the next explosive move.

UpSnap: Technical Comments in the Early Going

UpSnap snapped up nicely this morning, but then turned around and is now under some pressure. Since the stock has now been trading for less than one week, I guess it’s a little early to draw too many conclusions.

This hourly chart leads me to two conclusions, both of which I am quite emphatic about. 1. The 38.2% level at $2.70 has now been broken. Therefore, the ideal level around which you can accumulate this stock is the 61.8% level, or $2.38. For those with a trading mentality, that is the perfect level.

Second conculsion: Since it is early in the game, and we don’t know exactly where the support level is, I would make the $2.30 level an absolute drop dead stop loss level. If the stock trades that low, the 61.8% retracement will be violated and from a technical perspective I would not be in this stock. Sell and take your loss. Then we’ll keep an eye on it, look for firming, and go back in when the stock is ready to behave better.


Dermisonics Delivers Second Application

Post close on Friday, Dermisonics was out with news of a second potential application for their revolutionary new uses for portable ultrasound.

Dermisonics is about to begin its first clinical trials for a new use of Ultrasound. This product has the potential to allow 145 drugs to be administed transdermally- through the skin instead of through a needle.  Their initial focus is the transdermal delivery of insulin for Type II Diabetes.

Friday, after the market closed, DMSI announced it was developing another application using its expertise in ultrasound.

According to the release, the portable device will cause wound sites to more readily accept antibotics in order to protect from infection. Click Here to read the press release.

 The new product, known as the A-Wand (TM) is an advanced, proprietary ultrasonic handheld instrument designed to have multiple uses for consumers, the medical industry, EMS first responders, emergency room personnel and the military, and others. It is designed for the greatly improved application of antiseptic solutions to cuts, abrasions and wounds.

I first published on this company last weekend. It was trading at about $1, and still remains pretty close to that level.

Dermisonics has been in an uptrend which began in early November. Not only has there been price appreciation, but volume has been steadily increasing as you can tell from the vertical bars along the bottom.

Of particular note is the increase in volume. From a virtual stand still, this stock has begun to trade 100,00 shares everyday on average, and more some days.

The company is starting to garner some recognition. More applications are coming for their unique ultrasound technology. It might take a little more time, but early technical indicators look positive for a breakout move.

TelePlus Beefs Up Management

Teleplus was a little bit of a shining star against a pretty bleak landscape this past week. It’s a new idea, and this one is all about the numbers.

Today, just prior to the open, TLPE announced it had beefed up its management team with Tom Davis, a 30 year vet of the telecom business with vast experience on the operational side. Click Here to read the press release.

If the company is going to maintain its 104% growth rate, it is going to need strong management. After all, they have formally projected they will deliver $21 million in ’05, and jump to $55 million in ’06. Based on September quarterly results, their annual run rate is about $27 million. Therefore, they need to continue on the current path to deliver on projected results.

As you can see from the chart, this week’s announcement sparked a little mini rally in the stock, which has come down considerably from it’s brief trip to $.55 in early July.

The horizontal blue line at about $.22 represents the support line for the stock.  This is where you should set your stop loss. If the stock trades much below $.22, simply sell it and get out. As long as it hangs above that level, there is no need to worry about short term flucuations.

The upside from the current level in the short term (before year’s end) is probably about $.35, the previous spike. In order to achieve that level, the company will have to deliver another positive event which demonstrates to shareholders they are on their way to achieving the $55 million in ’06 sales.

Your comments and questions are welcome. 

NeWave Becomes NoWave

NeWave has definately turned into NoWave. The company has become barely a ripple at this point in time. Their previously lofty 400% year to year gain on the revenue side from ’03 to ’04 has turned into three steps backward to go one step forward in ’05.

September quarterly results were announced on Tuesday, and the word that comes to mind relative to what we’ve grown to expect is “abominable”.  The company delivered $1.77 million in revs for the quarter, down from the $2.4 million it had delivered in the same quarter in ’04.

Adding insult to injury was the refunds and credits number which comes off the top line. It has increased considerably as a percentage of revenues; not a good sign.

As you can see from the chart, the stock sold off in dramatic fashion shortly after the news hit the tape. A few hundred thousand shares caused the stock to crater down to a new low.

While I was expecting some softness in their numbers relative to closing down two subsidiaries that didn’t work out, I will be the first to admit these numbers served as a slap in the face.

On the plus side for shareholders who are taking this on the chin (myself included), the company followed up the next day with positive news concerning October’s performance.

Apparently the company has taken its lumps and is back on the upswing. generated 5400 new members in October, and at the subsidiary level generated $90,000 in operating profits. The press release made it clear the overall public company wasn’t in the black, but it is promising to see the core business turn cash flow positive for a month. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend.

The results of the first couple of test runs of their nationwide infomercial were as expected. The pilot test was designed to give them some idea of how well it would be received. They got about the call volume they were expecting, but are re-editing the infomercial for major nationwide roll out next year. Timing wise, this makes sense.

As far as the future goes, I am not optimistic for price appreciation in the near term. It’s a seasonal issue. Home based business services don’t do very well in the 4th quarter up against the holiday season. Conversely, they do extremely well in the 1st quarter along with gym membership and Weight Watchers as we all tend to go on self improvement kicks just post New Years.

While the worst is probably past, and the price rapidly adjusted to the poor performance, there will no doubt be some tax selling in this issue before year’s end. Therefore, it is hard for me to see price improvement until we get into next year. Then, it will depend on the corporate performance.

However, the stock will no longer trade on potential. Q3 numbers took them out of the “story” category, and it will be a “prove it to me” market from here forward.

Your comments, questions, and complaints are welcome and appreciated.  No doubt, there will be many.

BrandPartners Craters On Quarterly Numbers

What a miserable couple of weeks. Despite the larger market coming back, several problem children have me tearing my hair out.

BPTR is the latest to get beaten up by the shoot now, ask questions later market. Here’s the overview:

Yesterday, BPTR announced it’s quarterly results. The company managed to generate $12 million in sales for Q3- and they broke even. The question is why, since they have been consistently profitable?

Here’s the answer- their SG&A numbers went up by $1.6 million to $2.8 million- that $1.2 million difference was the amount of profit they surrendered to fund their expansion program. With the same SG&A as last year, the company would have delivered $1.2 million in earnings, or the expected nearly $.04 per share in EPS.

This company could simply move forward with its core business and deliver $5 or $6 million in earnings this year. However, they have decided to fund the roll out of Graffico, their subsdiary focused on the sub prime lending business, and BPTR Europe.

Most small companies would go out and do some sort of financing to fund these new initiatives. BPTR can fund them out of cash flow.

As a result of the break even quarter, the stock got squashed.

So despite the fact that the company just delivered the highest third quarter revenue number in history, and could have been profitable to the tune of $.04 per share had they not been investing in expansion, the market’s knee jerk reaction was to take the stock to its lowest level in 18 months.

So- here’s the double bottom line. If you believe their investment in expansion is going to pay off and translate into substantial top and bottom line growth over the next 4 quarters, then the stock is a buy.

If you believe they just wasted $1.2 million that could have gone directly to the bottom line, and they won’t be successful in their efforts to expand the business, the stock is a sell. Of course, if they fail and unwind both divisions, they can simply go back to their former level of profitability and anemic growth.

For my 100,000 shares at $.60, I am going to simply hang in there. If I free up some cash, I will probably add to the position.

Go to the current press release and listen to the replay Monday’s conference to formulate your own opinion.

Your comments and questions are welcome.

HESG Technical Comment

After Friday’s action in HESG, I took a look at the chart to formulate an opinion on where we go from here. As I see it, the key problem with attaining higher levels relates to volume. If and when the stock trades a little more volume, it will go higher.

The last time the company put out a press release of Thursday’s magnitude, the stock traded 750,000 shares and worked much higher. On Friday, HESG only traded a more anemic 230,000 shares. If it had traded commensurate with early September’s volume, I believe it would have broken out.

In my view, the main difference between early September and now is the hurricanes. The hurricanes and rising energy prices did as much damage to the psyche of individual investors as it did to our refining infrastructure. Money normally available for small stocks is stuffed in the proverbial paranoia mattress. Money managers who trade the big caps realize the worst is behind, but individual investors are clearly behind the 8 ball on the rebound.

There are a couple of major positives in this chart. The downtrend line, which began shortly after the mid summer move to $1.25, has been broken to the upside.

The stock has delivered a double repo against DiNapoli’s 3×3 displaced moving average. It went above it, below for less than 8 trading sessions, and then just barely back above. This is moderately bullish- it would have been very bullish had the 3×3 MA been pierced with more convinction- hence the need for more volume.

I’d love to see the stock break above last week’s high of nearly $.70 as shown by the blue horizontal line. That move would confirm a significant upward bias in the stock.

We need another good corporate event before the stock drifts back down to achieve a breakout. Let’s hope it comes in the next. I don’t know if it will, but I have a strong feeling a series of good events will be coming before year’s end.


Family Room Delivers Michael Douglas For ’06

Family Room was out with news post close yesterday. The company has lined up its second picture for 2006. Fresh off the heels of the announcement they will be producing the reincarnation of Stallone as Rambo, FMLY announced it would be going into production on a film with Oscar Winner Michael Douglas.

The ” King of California” sounds like a slice of life kind of comedy. Douglas plays an eccentric who searches for treasure around the San Fernando valley with his daughter. The film is slated to go into production in February of ’06.

With that announcement, tiny FMLY has movies with Bruce Willis, Nicolas Cage, Sylvester Stallone, Micheal Douglas, and Al Pacino assuming 88 minutes is back on the production calender for next year.

The company produced 8 films in 2005. There are two scheduled for next year already. If the company can just manage to get to a windfall profit and take out their toxic debt, shareholders would have a real chance with this one.

Extraordinary story for a 2 cent stock.

Questions and comments are welcome.


HDY Perfect Entry Level Now

If you feel you missed the big move in HDY or participated and want to add more, now is the perfect technical time to accumulate the stock.


As many of you know, I am not a big proponent of gobbling up stock as it moves up the chart on big volume. That is nearly always a one way ticket on the Titanic for your entry level.

Most stocks go through retracement periods. I have always like the Fibonacci retacement formulas of 38.2 and 61.8% pullbacks from runs. 61.8% is always the lower risk entry level of the two.

As you can see from the chart, HDY has completed a nearly perfect 61.8% retracement of its breathtaking run from $.90 to $2.50. It dropped a little below, then rebounded.

The conclusion- now is the perfect time to accumulate this stock and wait for the next news to create the next surge. Then you can sell when they are all buying. That’s what I am going to do for my own account.