Another snore fest in micros today, but a little excitement in the larger cap arena.

The excitement comes from RIMM, and now I have some losses to make up. This morning, RIMM announced the next generation of Blackberry- complete will all kinds of media rich and hi def stuff on the screen along with the new and more robust 3G technology.

I’m down about $13k on my puts, and I don’t think they are going to be worth anything with the stock closing today at $141.50. Over and done with. Ouch.

In light of crude now trading in the $125 range, I believe the market is defying gravity in the short term.

Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have been headed lower except in the energy compound, and these high energy and food costs have got to act as a dampener for economic growth.

In the large cap world, we have enjoyed a nice rebound in April and May, and I believe a correction is in the works.

Here’s a look at the NASDAQ COMP with a Fibonacci retracement. This a reverse retracement look. The NASDAQ COMP cratered from 2730 down to 2156- December to March.

It has since rebounded to almost 2500. At 2511, it’s a nearly perfect 61.8% rebound of the whole move down.

The chart suggests to me we are nearing the point of upside exhaustion.

Before long, I am going to be suggesting shorting one or two of the indexes, or buying puts if you prefer.

I believe we are overdue for a little correction. When, and if it comes, I would use the opportunity to move into a couple of big cap names that have rebounded dramatically- AAPL for one, which I believe is going to $250, and RIMM for another, which I believe is going to $200.

Lots to cover this week. I expect some sort of update from EFSF. SPKL will have Q1 numbers out, as will NIHK. Look for BLOGS on both those events.

Interesting day. The Cisco earnings buoyed the market early, but it couldn’t hold. New all time high oil prices at $122, combined with other rising commodity prices could not keep the market moving north.

The DOW closed down 200, and NASDAQ gave back just under $50. RIMM, a stock I want to see go down, finally pulled back under $130- so I’m starting to gain back some ground on my put options. I need the stock to drop about another 3 points to make some money- with a little luck, that could happen tomorrow.

Despite being a tough day for larger caps, we finally saw a little action in a couple of our micros today.

PhotoChannel (OTC BB: PNWIF) gets honorable mention for perking up nicely. The stock closed at the $3.78 level, up about 4% on the day. The stock also traded just north of 1/4 million shares, which is a nice volume surge for this issue. I’m looking for $4 so this darn thing can hopefully get the long hoped for and wished for NASDAQ SC listing and start getting more institutional sponsorship.

Spicy Pickle (OTC BB: SPKL) keeps trying to break through that $.90 level. Another 100k day- there have been a pretty consistent stream of those days. Persistence will break down resistance on the issue sooner or later.

Despite all the negative stuff going on in the overall economy, the dollar was up more than half a percent again- I believe money is starting to rotate into the oversold dollar, which may help mitigate the insane oil prices.

I think we’re going to get an update in pretty short order on where we are with eFoodSafety and its product line for those who have been waiting.

Tomorrow’s posting will be late as this one has been. Better late than never.

Comments and questions are welcome.

Another day, another yawn. Sorry about last week. If you were looking for some daily commentary, I was otherwise occupied running around NYC for the week, and it makes it tough to get the content side in. The excitement of the FED meeting was the big story for the week, but I covered that in a Thursday/Friday edition.

I was in NY working on two new ideas I will be delivering before the end of the year. I’m going with less ideas, but bigger and better ones.

My observation today is one of frustration. I’m frustrated because there’s an evident change in the character of large caps, but no change at the small and micro cap level- yet.

For the first quarter of 2008, it was “Sell the Rips, Buy the Dips”. My single best trade of 2008 was the Monday morning after the Bear Stearns debacle was announced. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) was simply beaten the morning, and I made $21k in two days by having the courage to buy.

In fact, I looked at a chart of AAA mortgage portfolio values today, and it is moving to the upside for the first time in a long time. The porfolios have appreciated from a low of $51 on a $100 par value to about $58- the chart has not broken the downtrend line, but it’s coming close. I’ll show the chart in a future edition- this is a very positive sign for the beginning of the end of the turmoil in the mortgage markets.

However, along with the micros going nowhere, I have been frustrated on the short side of the rips for the last month. Two of the four horseman of the last bull market- AAPL and RIMM just keep going up with no major correction in sight. I caught AAPL the first time, but now I holding nothing as it rockets. I am long a few put options in RIMM right now, and the stock keeps cranking higher.

On the micro front, the stocks I am covering are a snore fest at the present time. SPKL can’t seem to get through $.90- PNWIF gets Costco going, announces Australia, and can’t find any volume. EFSF has been silent on the DRTV campaign, so I guess investors are assuming it’s not working because the stock is very quiet. TCGD and NIHK are in comas. All in all, a very boring period in time.

On the plus side, I guess we needed a period of time where these stocks stopped going down, and simply traded sideways on low volume. We are right in the heart of that period, and I can’t wait for it to resolve to the upside.

On another note- I don’t believe the usual “Go away in May” strategy will work this year. The annual correction has already been priced into these issues, and the only question in my mind is whether we will have a decent rebound before the summer, or if we will have to wait until the Fall.

Sorry for the tardiness of this update. Yesterday I was in the air all day on long suffering Delta, and am firmly planted in wonderful Manhattan this AM. For those with questions in the BLOG- I got to them this morning.

I won’t be commenting on today’s market action until tomorrow as I will be in an all day meeting. Too bad- it’s a big day for potential progress.

Yesterday was another lackluster day as the market is pausing for the FED moves today. The market is expecting a one and done 1/4 point cut. Of far more importance is the statement- I continue to believe if the FED turns a bit hawkish on inflation in the statement, the market will love it.

Credit spreads are sabotaging the FEDs efforts. AAA mortgage portfolios have not found a bid, and Libor is stubbornly staying high against the short term fed funds rate- this means mortgage and credit card rates are not dropping in conjunction with the FED’s efforts.

There is an appetite for financials at the right price. Last night, Citibank did a new issue of convertible preferred- they were looking to raise $3 billion- due to demand Citi raised $4.5 billion. Since Jan 1, CITI has raised a total of $40.5 billion. That’s a staggering number, and shows there is capital available to replace the losses on mortgages.

In our small stock land, CREE is giving some ground, SPKL is very quiet, EFSF has given a little ground which in the past has been a buying opportunity. VTOK has crept up a couple of pennies of late. NIHK all quiet. TTGL and CPNE are both probably done for.

Of special note is a little long awaited news out of PhotoChannel. PNWIF announced the Costco service has started. Today, they announced they will be rolling out their service in conjunction Kodak throughout Australia.

Costco was no surprise, but Australia was. Let’s see if the stock can find a bid on this news.

The dollar has been firming slightly as the market expects the FED to be done easing. This should help commodities ease as the dollar firms, and be good for us all. The weak dollar has helped the big multinational companies, but it’s now gone to far and the price off commodities is killing the economy. This needs to change.

Let’s hope for a hawkish statement on inflation out of the FED today. I believe that is what the market is looking for.

All quiet in the markets today out in front of the FED’s open market committee meeting tomorrow.

The market is pricing in a 1/4 point rate drop. I don’t believe it’s a mark moving event.

However, I do believe the statement is a market moving event. If the FED indicates they are close to the end of the interest rate lowering cycle, the markets will respond positively- if the FED makes an announcement indicating it is going to remain vigilant on economic stimulus, and isn’t too worried about inflation, the market will hate it.

We have arrived at a point that generates a lot of impatience- Stocks have stopped going down, but the volume has not materialized to push them back up. We are in that no man’s land where the market is trying to decide where to go from here. The “all clear” signal is far from being blown, but the market priced in a lot of doom and gloom rather efficiently in Q1. We are close to some sort of tipping point. I wish I knew for sure which way.
The indexes drifted up today on light volume, and the dollar gave a little ground- not much.

In the individual stocks in our little universe, there wasn’t much to talk about. SPKL continues to trade at about the same level as the $6 million investment after making a valiant try for higher levels 10 days ago.

EFSF is struggling- trying to trade lower on light volume. I don’t know if people are impatient for news of the direct marketing campaign, or if someone thinks something is awry. Nevertheless, the stock ground a little lower.

CREE turned out to be a great call in the $25 to $26 range last week, closing at $27.38 today. I sold my options for a short term gain of about $1,000 on a $5,000 investment. I’m now holding 3,000 shares of common stock at about $26.75 average.

AAPL is killing me on its way through $170. I was waiting for a bottom of $110, and it only got to $120. My mistake. Hard to buy now.

Tomorrow I won’t be publishing this daily a musing as it will be a travel day. However, I should get to questions in the BLOG by Wednesday morning.

If it’s one and done for the FED, the market could start to break through some key resistance points. Stand by for the next chapter.

Today was all about oil and the dollar. Oil, making new highs the last 6 of 7 days, touched off the $120 per barrel today. Who have figured we would see these kinds of levels? Financial write downs were in the news again.

The markets didn’t like it, and responded in kind by giving back some of last week’s gains. Forgotten are the Google, IBM, and Intel earnings. Oil, and its widespread effect on US consumers, were the story of the day. The major indexes were all off about 1%.
And, speaking of hot areas- a fertilizer company went public on the NYSE today. It was priced at $32 and traded to $50- this shows were the strength in the market lies.

Yahoo numbers were out after the bell, and I believe their numbers are meaningless. It’s all about Mr. Softy buying them out, which also doesn’t matter other than to show there can be big boy consolidation. Microsoft wants to buy Yahoo! as a platform to try to take on Google- I heard one metaphor I liked- like two drunks holding each other up. Not much of a challenge, even combined. However, Yahoo came in at $.11 per share- and the stock is reasonably flat in after hours trading.

One of my favorite stocks is getting hit on a post close earnings release. CREE came in with $.05 vs the $.11 the market was looking for, and the stock is down to $28 in afterhours trading. As a reminder- buy around $25 to $26- sell covered calls in the mid $.30’s- this may be a buying opportunity.

Last week’s micro darling- Spicy Pickle (SPKL), was out with post close news today. Their Michigan franchisee has signed two leases for new stores expected to open this summer. The good stuff just keeps coming, and the stock is destined for higher levels.

Nighthawk (NIHK) followers responded pretty well to the weekend edition, with the stock eclipsing the $.05 level for the first time in a while.

All in all, a pretty lackluster day, but nonetheless important in the bottoming process for the markets. Clearly, some sectors are hot, others ice cold.

Huge day in the broader markets. Google was up $90 bucks- unbelievable- why didn’t I have a few calls on that stock? It was only a 20% move, but can you imagine having a few calls at $10, making a $90 move in one day? Awesome. I guarantee some shorts got absolutely hammered in that stock.

There were 127 new highs on the NYSE, which is a very healthy number and suggests strength in the market. However, the NASDAQ is lagging with only 52 new highs- smaller stocks have not been invited to the party yet, and the Russel 2000 is lagging way behind. We need to see some strength in the small and microcap sector to really see some bids come back.

This rally is coming at the expense of short seller and bonds- the 10 Year has moved a full 4 basis points this week-  that’s a huge move taking interest rates from 3.4% to 3.8%. Money is flowing out of bonds into stocks.

The anemic volumes in the small stock end of the market are still keeping stocks depressed. That coupled with an usually high number of redemptions at microcap funds, has the supply in that arena continuing to collar upside.

SPKL had on OK day, only giving back $.01 of yesterday’s move. EFSF was sideways as well, along with PNWIF and NIHK- the subject of the weekend edition.

The large cap action is encouraging- suggesting we will see some action in the small cap world in the near future.

Great news this week from Intel, IBM, and now Google has absolutely smashed the number analysts were looking for.

$4.42 was the estimate- the whisper number was $4.38 (lower, which is weird)- the real number was $4.84 on $3.7 billion in sales.

If after hours trading, the stock is up nearly $50 - wow!!!!!!! Talk about a short trap- I assure you there are some short sellers that are getting absolutely mauled on this news. The Bear just isn’t growling as loud as he was in February. Unlike mortgage, finance, and banking, its nice to know the world is not coming apart in tech land.

AMD also out with numbers after the close- losses were worse than expected, and the stock is up- imagine that.

On the slightly negative side- bonds are getting killed as money is running back into stocks- that is not good for most of us as it means interest rates are headed up.

In micro land- we had a great day with SPKL- the stock traded back above the $1 level today and closed at $.95- good stuff. Same store sales growth is quite remarkable in this environment. It was the highest volume day in 2008. In all likelihood this stock has made its bear market bottom at $.70- right now, a prudent trader should pounce on this stock in the $.85 range. Not sure it will get there, but if it does- be ready.

NIHK perked up nicely yesterday, but gave back some of the gains today. More on this one in the weekend edition. The press release associated with the earnings predicted the company would turn profitable in Q4- this is a good candidate to start waking up.

PNWIF continues in its endless coma in a news vacuum. Guys- get some updates out.

I noticed TTGL put out a 10Q with no press release. $21 million in cash, but $31 million in payables- big trouble there. Probably a good idea to be out if you aren’t already.

EFSF holding above $.20. Hallelujah. I’ll take any small victory I can get after Q1.

This is all pointing to a better market environment ahead.

Another quiet day in the markets with an upside bias in both larger caps and micro land. The two stocks that seem to want to work higher right now- SPKL and EFSF.

EFSF seems to finally be willing to hang on to that elusive $.20 which can act as a springboard to higher levels. News today about their Direct Marketing initiatives, and the market seemed to like it. Nothing wrong with this stock that a few 2 million share days won’t fix.

SPKL had another 100k share plus day, holding recent gains. Please listen to the conference call tomorrow at 4:15 Eastern- dial (866) 696-5897. If you can’t dial in, and have a question you want answered, send me an email at editor@otcjournal.com.

Washington Mutual (WM) reported a $1.40 loss- the stock is up nicely in after hours trading. Bad news is good for stocks- that’s a sign of moving back towards a Bull Market.
Intel (INTC)- up 6% on earnings. Came in at $.25 on a $.25 estimate. Margins were good, and the market loves it. AMG came in a little light, so there was some concern it was an industry wide problem. Apparently, INTC might be pirating some business from AMG.

This all bodes well for another nice up day in the markets tomorrow. Of course- there is one big negative- oil at $113- ouch. US demand is down about 7% from last year, but there is still an oil bubble inflating out there. Eventually, this price will have to moderate world wide demand, and the price will correct. Two years ago I would have thought we would be in a full blown depression with $113 oil, but apparently we are more resilient than that.

I have some absolutely fantastic alternative energy ideas coming. Stay tuned.

The market has every to melt down right now. Between numbers on the economy, the GE numbers last Friday, the recent run up in stocks, and the lowered estimates by Arch Coal, the market should be absolutely tanking.

However, all we are doing is giving a little ground against this very rough back drop.

When bad news stops driving down stocks, you know you are close to a bottom in the market. Last week WM- Washington Mutual - one of the biggest sub prime lenders- announced it was raising $7 billion from a private equity- Wachovia is said to be following suit- guess what- WM made a 50% move to the upside on the news, which was short lived.

The big money is now moving into blown out financials at bottom basement prices- making the assumption the worst of the sub prime mess is behind us, and these lending institutions will do very well in the next low interest environment.

Of particular interest is the dollar- Bernanke’s plan to provide liquidity to the system without printing money has the dollar firming. Check out UUP- that’s the ETF to go long the dollar. It has started making a series of higher lows, and looks like it could be completing a bottom process.

If the dollar firms, two things will happen- 1. The big “trade” will begin to unwind- long oil and short the dollar, and 2. International money will pour back into US equities. It has been on the sidelines for sometime as the perception is that the stocks can go up, but if the dollar goes down they make no gain.

On the micro side, SPKL is making a very good showing today on a nice volume blip. Investors are anticipating something good out of the company with the conference call coming on Wednesday. Investors are also recognizing the stock is cheap.

EFSF is also trying to make a come back- it finally appears to be ready to hold on to that  elusive $.20 level- still waiting for a broadcast schedule.

NIHK still has not done their 10k filing, along with CPNE, who I really don’t care that much about anymore.

On the short term side, I am out of the RIMM trade. The theme was right, the security and the timing were wrong. I know some of you lost money, others who were smarter, had better timing, or just plain lucky made money.

Right now, I would prefer a couple of nice down days to go long. I believe the worst is behind us. Bad news no longer drives stocks down. For the most part- it’s all priced in and we are poised to return to better times.

Great day in the markets, which is fine with me except for my open put position on RIMM. The trade did not work, and I will be closing out my other 20 puts at a loss either late today or tomorrow. I am now 5 for 6 on short term ideas- Of course, RIMM is the one I put the most money in, so it hurts the profits on some of the other ideas.

In today’s action, Semi index up 2.7%- Biotech index up 3%- Consumer Discretionary up 1%- this means there is a bid coming back to the markets. The Semis and consumer discretionarys moving up is a great sign. A Japanese company is buying out Milenium Pharma at $25- and the stock is up 8 points or 50% on the news. Hence, the biotech rally today.

Aside from getting my butt kicked on the RIMM trade, CREE is behaving well today- up $.24 into the mid $28’s- at this price, there is nothing to do here. I keep saying buy at $25- sell calls at $35.

EFSF, the little stock that could, is trying for higher ground again, with a high print of nearly $.21 with about 300k shares of volume.

The loss I take on RIMM will be made up for as other stocks I am long appreciate. The worst of the Bear is clearly behind us, and the stock market is buying into Bernanke’s moves.

I love the tone of the markets. I believe there is easy money to be made on rebounds in EFSF and SPKL- perhaps PNWIF as well. NIHK could be a candidate for a rebound if they can ever get their numbers out.

All in all, the market sure looks like it’s in recovery mode to me. The big ones lead the small ones back in this kind of environment.

Looks like the pain is over- at least for the time being.

Sorry to those who have been looking for this daily review earlier this week. Got a bit distracted working on some new ideas to come, old ideas that should head back in the right direction, and Spring Break for the kids.

On to some fun stuff.

The market is cracking a bit today on a new all time high for oil- north of $110 per barrel, and UPS revising estimates lower. Trannies are getting hit. Oil and gold are up. These commodities, are nearing the top of a speculative bubble. The evidence is everywhere. At this price, demand for oil will wane, and it will correct. Might take some months. Gold is close to being ready for a big correction some time between now and the end of ‘08. Like dot coms and real estate in the last 10 years, all bubbles eventually burst. The more they inflate, the more painful when they burst.

The correction in the markets today was help for my puts in RIMM- that position has been killing me. It’s the first stock in months that didn’t fall apart after running up into a good earnings report. I was pretty exposed with a total investment of $22,500. When the stock traded below $118 today, I closed out 15 of the 35 puts at $4.90 for a net loss of $2275. I’ll hang on to the other 20 puts and see what happens tomorrow. If there’s another down day like today, I’ll actually make money. However, if the darn stock turns back up, I’ll have to limit my losses and get out. If I had a longer window in time on these things, I would continue to hold, but they will expire in short order. If I had just shorted the stock, I’d be making money. I don’t mind shorting indexes, but I avoid shorting individual stocks. I just need one more day down 3 points, but it needs to be this week.

I mentioned QPCI in the weekend report. The stock was looking tired and the volume was dropping, so I sold the 20,000 shares I had picked up on Friday and made a few hundred bucks. One to watch on a correction.

After filling the gap, SPKL is looking a bit stronger. There’s an easy money rebound forming here. The sellers are all blown out, and there’s probably easy money to $1.

There was a surge of interest in EFSF yesterday- the stock traded north of 1 million shares for the first time this year, and made a high of $.22. I’m not sure why, but it’s a promising sign. I’m still hoping to get my hands on a schedule of commercial broadcasts to share with everyone, but the 411 is not forthcoming as of yet.

I was able to confirm that PNWIF is indeed now providing services for Sam’s Club, so that should help numbers. No 411 on Costco one way or the other yet. I would love to see that darn thing get up to $4 and hang there for a month. NASDAQ SC would be close at hand.

NIHK and TCGD still delinquent on their filings, so no comments worth mentioning there.

It’s the lunch hour in California after a particularly ho hum day in the markets. It’s nice to see a bit of a rebound after last week’s drubbing, and my bet on the SPYs might still pay off. As I write today’s musings, I am about even on 1,000 SPY at $132.06. I’m not afraid to hold for a few more days and see if the rebound can get some legs. Would be happy to scalp a couple of points out of this idea and get out.

On the larger cap side- CREE (NASDAQ: CREE) is still in no man’s land. At $28- not cheap enough to add to, but not expensive enough to write calls. I’ll just hang in there today.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is a bit irritating as it ran away from me before I could buy some. If I had been smart enough to buy at $120, I’d be writing calls today. Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is also being uncooperative- looking for that one to trade up into Wednesday’s post close earnings so I can get short for a trade. $112 is not the right time to get short- I would prefer around $120. Let’s hope it gets some legs tomorrow and the next day.

In our little corner of the microcap world its All Quiet on the Western Front. No significant action anywhere.

Spicy Pickle (SPKL), is a non event today, eFoodsafety (EFSF) anemic - today is the day they should be starting the commercials- PhotoChannel (PNWIF)- nothing new- no annual numbers on NightHawk (NIHK) yet- TraceGuard (TCGD) quiet to the point of death-

V2K (VTOK) was out with some positive news pre open, but I don’t believe investors get it yet- it is going to take some time for people to understand this one. I think I’ll do a BLOG feature on today’s news.

Going to be watching RIMM like a hawk the next couple of days. The better it trades, the more I’ll invest in a put option.

I was in front of the computer on and off today, but the tone of the market looks reasonable.

After last week, it’s fine to have a couple of days of consolidation. This bottoming process is going to take some time.

I flipped out of my LEH puts close to the open for a nice 35% gain in two trading days. Turned $8k into $11,500. Will never look back, but I’ll bet I left some money on the table. There is nothing about the LEH chart that suggests the stock is going higher.

SPKL- firmed today, but continues to be under pressure. I believe very early shareholders who originally financed the company are selling out in front of April 15th- tax day. Some other shares coming out as well. Just a little more selling than buying should keep this one grinding a bit lower for the time being. Should be coming close to the end of this Chinese Water Torture.

CREE- stock looked great today- bucking the declining market to finish over $30. Nothing to be done right now. Sell calls at $35, or buy more at $25.

EFSF grinding a bit lower again today. Too close to my SSL. Commercials start on the 31st. Hoping it injects some real life in the stock.

NIHK fans don’t worry- 411 coming.

Didn’t like the action in commodities. If commodities start another parabolic move to the upside, it will tough on the market. However, I believe this bubble is close to bursting. You can’t buy a metal detector in Florida (folks looking for gold in the sand). Individual gold mining permits in Alaska are at a new all time high- it that’s not a signal of a top, I don’t know what is.

Have to do a BLOG piece on the SPKL 10k- traveling tomorrow, so look for it Friday. I want to put some thought into it.

This will be the first in a new series of daily blogs with some observations about today’s market action, especially as it applies to the current ideas I have in front of subscribers.

Open LEH Puts:

Well, the trade is working well so far. Earlier today I was up $2k on an $8k investment from last Friday, and tempted to lock in. Gave back $500 so far. However, since LEH was down yesterday on a huge up day in the markets, I have no reason to believe the stock is ready to head back up. Some downgrades today from brokerage firms, and they are rumored to be awash in bad mortgage paper. Let’s hang in another day.

VTOK: New Idea

The response to new idea VTOK was pretty anemic. I believe the story is reasonably compelling, but I don’t think the market really gets how big the Amerivon relationship will be. More will come out in the future.

SPKL:

Stock continues to languish on light volume. The company is doing great, but the stock needs a catalyst to get it moving again. They came out with their 10K, so I will do an in depth BLOG on it. Big winner in the next bull market.

EFSF:

Stock firming a little in a pretty brutal micro environment. I like the second test of the lows, and some volume starting to show up. Might get some legs in this one.

PNWIF:

Showing some signs of life today as it is oversold in a news vacuum. Costco services should start soon. Big winner in the next Bull market.

AAPL:

I missed it waiting for the all time bargain basement steal. I don’t believe the volatile madness is over, so might get another chance.

CREE:

In no man’s land. Sticking with my plan. I have my 2k shares in the mid 28’s- will buy more if I see it back in the $25 to $26 range- will sell calls against it in the $30s. Today, nothing to do at $29+.

Overall Market:

After a huge week and a big Monday, the market should be giving some ground, but it’s not. Bullish, but still half the day to go. The environment is finally improving a little, and perhaps the micro will start to show some signs of life before too long.

I haven’t published an update on NCNC since the initial presentation back on June 13th. The company hasn’t been in a position to announce some of the events that are happening behind the scenes.

However, I did have a chance to speak with CEO David Duquette today at length, and based on our conversation I believe this is one stock that could really take off later this year.

If you check back and read the original presentation, you will note one of their key growth drivers is the newly developing demand for wind turbines. Duquette reports the demand for machines to manufacture the components for wind turbines is skyrocketing. He has proposals going out nearly every day, and expects to have a number of new announceable contracts throughout the month of August. GE could be producing as many as 50 new wind turbines weekly by year’s end.

On the Boeing Dreamliner front, their joint venture is set up, and they will be setting up a machine to work on the 12 ft engine rings in very short order. Order flow is expected to start in August, and gain momentum for the forseeable future.

Q2 numbers are due out by Mid August, and I am expecting another quarter of growth in both top and bottom line.

NCNC does have one big challenge- they are having difficulty with the truck lines getting parts in and shipments out. They are also having challenges with suppliers- getting components they need which are backordered.

We agreed it was kind of a high class problem to have. He’s just got too much business, and the market will catch on sooner or later.

Here’s the current chart:

The stock has come down $.20 since the high of $.80 it made just after I started covering the company.

The chart you are looking at is a pretty typical summer trading pattern. The stock is drifting down on very light volume. It could trade all the way down to $.50 in my view before it becomes a screaming buy.

The company is in the proverbial eye of the hurricane right now. High winds are swirling all around, but there is a calm period before massive new order flow hits. Look for continued significant growth on both the top and bottom lines.

Comments and questions are welcome.

Admittedly, UCMT was one of the few bad ideas I have shared with OTC Journal members in a long time. At least in the short term, the stock has trade atrociously. This is a very thinly traded stock, and as such is subject to big price swings on very little volume.

Nevertheless, I believe this one will eventually be embraced by microcap investors. It might take a huge win in their portfolio, but this stock is absurdly undervalued and underfollowed.

Their year end audited numbers are due out by the end of July, and I believe they are going to be very good.

Here’s the chart, and you can see just how poorly the stock has done in the summer sell off period:

As you can see, UCMT traded very poorly pretty much out of the gates. Apparently, there was an appetite to sell, and despite the limited volume, the sellers don’t seem too concerned about the price at which they sell.

However, of late the supply seems to have dried up completely. The stock appears to be firming, and could be one heck of a great buy right now.

Thinly traded stocks can give a lot of ground on light volume, but they can make it up as quickly to the upside.

Year end audited numbers are due out by the end of July, and I believe you are going to see a very healthy company.

If you didn’t sell when the stock hit the SSL, it simply means you have decided to become a longer term investor. With this one, a little buying could go a long way.

The bottom appears to be in. I suggest being a buyer.

Comments and questions are welcome.

It looks to me like CPNE finally made a bottom this week and is ready to begin a serious rebound phase.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I started buying the stock today for my personal and corporate account, and will probably continue to do so. As I write this, so far I have picked up 5,000 at $1.36 in the personal, and 7500 in the corporate at about $1.345.

The stock looks really good to me- as I have been saying all along, something needed to change, and it looks like the change is here.

I don’t know if anything is going on behind the scenes beyond the sellers running out of stock and the buyers bringing the momentum back, but the stock is sure charging up the charts on strong volume.

Here’s the chart I put together- there are no retracement levels because the stock blew them all away, but there’s a couple of other indicators:

The white line is the 10 day moving average - it broke above today which is very short term bullish.

The next line- the blue line- is the downtrend line from the top at $3.40 back in late January. I believe the stock will blow through that today, signalling a trend reversal.

The yellow line at $1.66 is the 50 day moving average. A break through that would confirm everything.

I am buying as I believe the drubbing is over. I am often wrong, but there you have it.

Comments and questions are welcome.

The first day of coverage on UCMT yielded no big surprise. I thought this one would be hard to buy, and I was right.

After all, there are only 5 million shares I&O- the lowest number of any company I follow, and the vast majority of those shares are probably held fairly tightly. After all, the growth rate is extraordinary, the portfolio has some huge upside, and the company pays free trading shares of its portfolio company as dividends. Not much reason to sell.

The stock opened a little too strong- the first print was at $1.78 followed by $1.95. Then it settled back into the $1.75 to $1.80 range for the first 1/2 hour.

Here’s a look at the chart:

In the case of UCMT, I’m not terribly worried that today’s volume surge will be met with any sort of significant pullback. After all, the stock was $4 last summer, and north of $2.50 last October.

It has been many months, and anyone who wanted to sell has had plenty of time to do so. The other side of the coin- sometimes the new found volume and price appreciation brings some formerly inactive sellers out of the woodwork.

Here’s what happens- they don’t realize it’s a new day for the trading activity in the stock. They go “whew” and sell because they hadn’t been able to for months. Next thing you know- the stock turns around and heads back up and they go “what was I thinking?”.

My instincts tell me this stock is probably not going to give much ground from the roughly $1.80 level. It could have come back to fill the gap, but it didn’t. It simply fell back a little, and off we go.

My bet is the next volume surge takes the stock north of $2.

Look for lots of activity in from the company, and a much improved audience and shareholder base going forward.

I believe it is ok to accumulate this one in the $1.80 range. For now, your SSL is $1.50.

Comments and questions are welcome.

CPNE finally appears to be in a bit of a corrective phase. Long overdue.

If you are dying to buy some, here’s the chart:

This is my standard 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels. First stop- $2.76- if it gets there it’s a buy. If $2.75 gives way, it’s a very strong buy at $2.40 or so.

In the case of CPNE, I think the $2.75 level will probably turn out to be a great buy, but you never know for sure.

Comments and questions are welcome.