To say the least, it has been an interesting week for HDY. The company issued a press release describing in detail how their Guinea project had gotten derailed from crooked internal politics. I have never seen disclosure like this from a public co. It reads more like a John Grisham novel than the real world. Click Here if you want to check it out and didn’t catch it.
It would appear the game is back on in Guinea, and HDY has some very compelling seismic data and core samples from the concession.
I believe the company is signalling the market that it is on the cusp of getting the permits to drill test wells. This will be the first step in the process of restoring the project.
My guess is that HDY is going to announce they have received drilling permits in the near future- my guess is anytime between tomorrow and the end of the year.
I believe an announcement of this type will probably add $.50 to $1 to the stock- I don’t know if it will be a spike or it will hold. I know if I am paying attention when it happens I will be a seller of some or all of the 20,000 shares I have accumulated for my own account, and be looking to buy those shares back.
I believe if you don’t own some of this stock, you should own it now. I am recommending an event driven trade, and in event driven trading you have to remember to sell when the event happens.
The bigger questions come down the road- if they get the permits to drill, where are they going to get the money? Based on their last quarterly filing for the end of Q3, they don’t have anything close to the resources, and they are generating very little cash flow out of the Lousianna properties.
The ideal scenario- get the permits, then get a deep pockets partner to help develop the concession. If that were to happen, I believe the stock would trade at a new all time high- perhaps $4 to $6.
As you can see from the chart, HDY has been in a nice uptrend since disclosing things were getting back in track in Guinea. The stock has demonstrated it’s propensity to rocket up the chart on good news related to Guinea. The way this is setting up, you really need to own some so you can benefit from the pending developments the company is signalling.