I’m travelling today and already late for my first meeting, so I can’t give you any real feedback on the NIHK quarterly report.

However, it shouldn’t be that complicated. Revenues are way up, and losses are down. One of the biggest expenses now is dividends on preferred- which is being paid in shares- this could represent more supply for the market to wrestle with, but that’s the price of poker.

I’ll craft more thoughts when I have some time to look at this one. For the time being, I still believe owning this stock is like owning an option that doesn’t expire.

Submit and comments or questions, and I’ll get on it next week.

Here’s my short term trading idea- time to go short.

The larger market has been chugging up the charts relentlessly, all fear virtually gone. This is not an environment that lends itself to no risk in the market.

The VIX - the measure of levels of fear in the markets, has all but disappeared. Remember, I wrote a BLOG on using the VIX as a counter intuitive tool to clue us into making trades on the over market.- VIX at or below 20- too much complacency- sell.
VIX at or above 30- too much fear- buy the market. Here’s a chart of the VIX:

As you can see, the last time the VIX was this low was back in October 9th. Sorry you can’t see the timeline, but trust me, that was the time frame.

By November, we started into one of the ugliest four months I can recall in the stock market’s history.

We’re not going into another period like that as a lot of the damage has already been priced into the market. However, I do feel we are overdue for a multi week correction.

Here’s a look at the QID- the ETF I have chosen for my own account to get into a short position:

This is the security I have chosen to take a short bet on the overall market for my own money. This is the QID- an ETF that trades inversely to the QQQQs on a 2 for 1 basis. Anotherwords, if the QQQQs go up 1%, QID will go down 2%, and vice versa.

Today, as a starting position, I picked up 2,000 shares of QID at an average cost of $38.67. I am prepared to go a little deeper, or perhaps even own some puts if we go much higher.

The only wild card- options expiration tomorrow, where things can be a little wacky. I could be prepared to go even deeper next week if the market hasn’t started a corrective phase.

Comments and questions are welcome.

SPKL filed its Q1 10Q yesterday afternoon, and the filing really contained no surprises. The market is responding in kind my delivering another quiet day of trading with the stock still trying to get through the $.90 and stick higher than that level.
The top line number was $625k in revs- up from $221k in the same quarter in 2007. That nearly a triple in top line performance- 182% revenue growth to be exact.

The quarter was reflective of exactly what the company has been saying it was doing- investing the $6 million raised at $.85 per share last December into expanding it’s company owned store portfolio.

If you are wondering about the current state of restaurant openings and future openings, here’s a quote directly out of the 10Q:

As of May 3, 2008, we have sold 127 franchises. Of the franchises sold, 31 franchise restaurants are opened and operating, 1 company-built and owned restaurant is open, 5 franchise restaurants have been repurchased by the Company, 6 franchise restaurants are under construction, 2 company restaurants are under construction, 6 franchise sites are under lease negotiation (we have either received an actual lease that is being reviewed or a letter of intent), 1 franchise restaurant closed and 75 franchise sites are subject to area development agreements. An area development agreement is entered into when a franchisee has purchased the rights to a geographic area with a set number of restaurants in that area.

As you can see from this statement, it is very reasonable to expect continued growth from SPKL long out into the future.

At the end of the quarter, SPKL still had about $3.6 million and cash, and no long term debt.

The only real liability on the balance sheet is about $1 million in deferred franchise fees. This debt is really the fuel for growth. This liability is, in fact, the franchisee fess already paid into the company for expansion. It is shown as a liability on the balance sheet until the restaurants represented by the franchisee fees open for business. Then, the liability is converted to revenues as SPKL has fulfilled its obligation to get the store open. As that number goes down, the number of stores goes up. I would like to see the number go up, as that means more franchises have been sold.

As far as losses go, the company lost about $1.5 million, or $.03 per share. I would expect the losses to continue throughout 2008, and improve to a profit or at least cash flow positive in 2009.

New store openings are now picking up, with several on the horizon.

Here’s the current chart:

This is a slightly ascending wedge. The market is just grinding away at that $.90 resistance point. Sooner or later, it is going to break out, and bust north. When it does, it needs to work its way higher than $1, to set up a pattern of higher lows and higher highs.

It’s tough to say where this stock might be in the next two weeks, but the company is proving its worth everyday with new franchise sales and new store openings. If you can see out a year or two, this company should be far more valuable than the current $42 million market value it commands.

There aren’t many fast casual chains growing at this clip. If you’re not a believer yet, go try the food.

Another snore fest in micros today, but a little excitement in the larger cap arena.

The excitement comes from RIMM, and now I have some losses to make up. This morning, RIMM announced the next generation of Blackberry- complete will all kinds of media rich and hi def stuff on the screen along with the new and more robust 3G technology.

I’m down about $13k on my puts, and I don’t think they are going to be worth anything with the stock closing today at $141.50. Over and done with. Ouch.

In light of crude now trading in the $125 range, I believe the market is defying gravity in the short term.

Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 have been headed lower except in the energy compound, and these high energy and food costs have got to act as a dampener for economic growth.

In the large cap world, we have enjoyed a nice rebound in April and May, and I believe a correction is in the works.

Here’s a look at the NASDAQ COMP with a Fibonacci retracement. This a reverse retracement look. The NASDAQ COMP cratered from 2730 down to 2156- December to March.

It has since rebounded to almost 2500. At 2511, it’s a nearly perfect 61.8% rebound of the whole move down.

The chart suggests to me we are nearing the point of upside exhaustion.

Before long, I am going to be suggesting shorting one or two of the indexes, or buying puts if you prefer.

I believe we are overdue for a little correction. When, and if it comes, I would use the opportunity to move into a couple of big cap names that have rebounded dramatically- AAPL for one, which I believe is going to $250, and RIMM for another, which I believe is going to $200.

Lots to cover this week. I expect some sort of update from EFSF. SPKL will have Q1 numbers out, as will NIHK. Look for BLOGS on both those events.

Interesting day. The Cisco earnings buoyed the market early, but it couldn’t hold. New all time high oil prices at $122, combined with other rising commodity prices could not keep the market moving north.

The DOW closed down 200, and NASDAQ gave back just under $50. RIMM, a stock I want to see go down, finally pulled back under $130- so I’m starting to gain back some ground on my put options. I need the stock to drop about another 3 points to make some money- with a little luck, that could happen tomorrow.

Despite being a tough day for larger caps, we finally saw a little action in a couple of our micros today.

PhotoChannel (OTC BB: PNWIF) gets honorable mention for perking up nicely. The stock closed at the $3.78 level, up about 4% on the day. The stock also traded just north of 1/4 million shares, which is a nice volume surge for this issue. I’m looking for $4 so this darn thing can hopefully get the long hoped for and wished for NASDAQ SC listing and start getting more institutional sponsorship.

Spicy Pickle (OTC BB: SPKL) keeps trying to break through that $.90 level. Another 100k day- there have been a pretty consistent stream of those days. Persistence will break down resistance on the issue sooner or later.

Despite all the negative stuff going on in the overall economy, the dollar was up more than half a percent again- I believe money is starting to rotate into the oversold dollar, which may help mitigate the insane oil prices.

I think we’re going to get an update in pretty short order on where we are with eFoodSafety and its product line for those who have been waiting.

Tomorrow’s posting will be late as this one has been. Better late than never.

Comments and questions are welcome.

Another day, another yawn. Sorry about last week. If you were looking for some daily commentary, I was otherwise occupied running around NYC for the week, and it makes it tough to get the content side in. The excitement of the FED meeting was the big story for the week, but I covered that in a Thursday/Friday edition.

I was in NY working on two new ideas I will be delivering before the end of the year. I’m going with less ideas, but bigger and better ones.

My observation today is one of frustration. I’m frustrated because there’s an evident change in the character of large caps, but no change at the small and micro cap level- yet.

For the first quarter of 2008, it was “Sell the Rips, Buy the Dips”. My single best trade of 2008 was the Monday morning after the Bear Stearns debacle was announced. Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) was simply beaten the morning, and I made $21k in two days by having the courage to buy.

In fact, I looked at a chart of AAA mortgage portfolio values today, and it is moving to the upside for the first time in a long time. The porfolios have appreciated from a low of $51 on a $100 par value to about $58- the chart has not broken the downtrend line, but it’s coming close. I’ll show the chart in a future edition- this is a very positive sign for the beginning of the end of the turmoil in the mortgage markets.

However, along with the micros going nowhere, I have been frustrated on the short side of the rips for the last month. Two of the four horseman of the last bull market- AAPL and RIMM just keep going up with no major correction in sight. I caught AAPL the first time, but now I holding nothing as it rockets. I am long a few put options in RIMM right now, and the stock keeps cranking higher.

On the micro front, the stocks I am covering are a snore fest at the present time. SPKL can’t seem to get through $.90- PNWIF gets Costco going, announces Australia, and can’t find any volume. EFSF has been silent on the DRTV campaign, so I guess investors are assuming it’s not working because the stock is very quiet. TCGD and NIHK are in comas. All in all, a very boring period in time.

On the plus side, I guess we needed a period of time where these stocks stopped going down, and simply traded sideways on low volume. We are right in the heart of that period, and I can’t wait for it to resolve to the upside.

On another note- I don’t believe the usual “Go away in May” strategy will work this year. The annual correction has already been priced into these issues, and the only question in my mind is whether we will have a decent rebound before the summer, or if we will have to wait until the Fall.

Yesterday, PNIWF announced the COSTCO service had started. So, why wasn’t this market moving? Simple- because everyone already knew it- no surprise there.

Today, PNWIF announced it had entered into a deal with Kodak to expand online photo processing into Australia. This is news. I didn’t know about it.

One would think this is market moving news, but clearly the audience for this stock is not quite paying attention.

They have been kind of dropping the ball on shareholder awareness. Not much has been coming out of PNWIF of late.

Boys- time to ramp up the information flow. Get this darn stock north of $4, jump to NASDAQ SC, and let’s rock from there.

I don’t have time to provide a chart right now, but comments and questions are welcome. This one could be big winner in the second half of 2008 and well into 2009 and beyond.

Sorry for the tardiness of this update. Yesterday I was in the air all day on long suffering Delta, and am firmly planted in wonderful Manhattan this AM. For those with questions in the BLOG- I got to them this morning.

I won’t be commenting on today’s market action until tomorrow as I will be in an all day meeting. Too bad- it’s a big day for potential progress.

Yesterday was another lackluster day as the market is pausing for the FED moves today. The market is expecting a one and done 1/4 point cut. Of far more importance is the statement- I continue to believe if the FED turns a bit hawkish on inflation in the statement, the market will love it.

Credit spreads are sabotaging the FEDs efforts. AAA mortgage portfolios have not found a bid, and Libor is stubbornly staying high against the short term fed funds rate- this means mortgage and credit card rates are not dropping in conjunction with the FED’s efforts.

There is an appetite for financials at the right price. Last night, Citibank did a new issue of convertible preferred- they were looking to raise $3 billion- due to demand Citi raised $4.5 billion. Since Jan 1, CITI has raised a total of $40.5 billion. That’s a staggering number, and shows there is capital available to replace the losses on mortgages.

In our small stock land, CREE is giving some ground, SPKL is very quiet, EFSF has given a little ground which in the past has been a buying opportunity. VTOK has crept up a couple of pennies of late. NIHK all quiet. TTGL and CPNE are both probably done for.

Of special note is a little long awaited news out of PhotoChannel. PNWIF announced the Costco service has started. Today, they announced they will be rolling out their service in conjunction Kodak throughout Australia.

Costco was no surprise, but Australia was. Let’s see if the stock can find a bid on this news.

The dollar has been firming slightly as the market expects the FED to be done easing. This should help commodities ease as the dollar firms, and be good for us all. The weak dollar has helped the big multinational companies, but it’s now gone to far and the price off commodities is killing the economy. This needs to change.

Let’s hope for a hawkish statement on inflation out of the FED today. I believe that is what the market is looking for.

All quiet in the markets today out in front of the FED’s open market committee meeting tomorrow.

The market is pricing in a 1/4 point rate drop. I don’t believe it’s a mark moving event.

However, I do believe the statement is a market moving event. If the FED indicates they are close to the end of the interest rate lowering cycle, the markets will respond positively- if the FED makes an announcement indicating it is going to remain vigilant on economic stimulus, and isn’t too worried about inflation, the market will hate it.

We have arrived at a point that generates a lot of impatience- Stocks have stopped going down, but the volume has not materialized to push them back up. We are in that no man’s land where the market is trying to decide where to go from here. The “all clear” signal is far from being blown, but the market priced in a lot of doom and gloom rather efficiently in Q1. We are close to some sort of tipping point. I wish I knew for sure which way.
The indexes drifted up today on light volume, and the dollar gave a little ground- not much.

In the individual stocks in our little universe, there wasn’t much to talk about. SPKL continues to trade at about the same level as the $6 million investment after making a valiant try for higher levels 10 days ago.

EFSF is struggling- trying to trade lower on light volume. I don’t know if people are impatient for news of the direct marketing campaign, or if someone thinks something is awry. Nevertheless, the stock ground a little lower.

CREE turned out to be a great call in the $25 to $26 range last week, closing at $27.38 today. I sold my options for a short term gain of about $1,000 on a $5,000 investment. I’m now holding 3,000 shares of common stock at about $26.75 average.

AAPL is killing me on its way through $170. I was waiting for a bottom of $110, and it only got to $120. My mistake. Hard to buy now.

Tomorrow I won’t be publishing this daily a musing as it will be a travel day. However, I should get to questions in the BLOG by Wednesday morning.

If it’s one and done for the FED, the market could start to break through some key resistance points. Stand by for the next chapter.

FYI- for all those who are following the situation- I bounced out of my CREE options today with about a $1,000 profit on a $5,000 investment in 3 trading days. I am still holding the common. In short, the oversold bounce back trade worked, and I like to jump on the profits in these options when I get them quickly.

CREE came out with Q1 earnings yesterday after the bell, and the stock is getting killed on the market’s disappointment.

CREE delivered $.07 when the market was looking for $.11. Naturally, the stock is getting murdered.

If you read my March 5th BLOG, you will note I advised the time to really load up would be between $25.00 and $26.30.

Today’s action has taken us to those levels, and so far I have invested in 1,000 more shares of common stock at $26.35, and 25 $25 May Calls at $2.40.

Here’s the chart:

While I’m sure there will be some backing and filling, I’m not going to worry about where we trade in the very short term. As long as the stock hangs in there in the $25 plus range, I’ll hang in there.

If it falls much below $25, I’ll start thinking of either adding to the position, or taking my losses and moving on.

The chart now has a huge, gaping gap from $30 down to $26, and I’m willing to bet my own hard earned cash that gap will be filled over the next couple of months.

While the numbers were a little troubling, owning this stock is a bet on the future of the LED bulb. I believe in it. I think it will become dominant technology over the next few years.

The market always over reacts emotionally in the short term. That’s one plus. Another- Cramer doesn’t like this stock, which in my mind is a huge plus. My BLOGS of late have been saying there is nothing to be done with CREE. Today, there is something to do.

Comments and questions are welcome.

CREE got beat up on a disappointing earnings report. I am pouncing on the stock today as it has fallen back to the perfect technical level in my view.

So far, I have bought 1,000 shares of common stock and 25 call options. More, including chart, in about one hour.

Today was all about oil and the dollar. Oil, making new highs the last 6 of 7 days, touched off the $120 per barrel today. Who have figured we would see these kinds of levels? Financial write downs were in the news again.

The markets didn’t like it, and responded in kind by giving back some of last week’s gains. Forgotten are the Google, IBM, and Intel earnings. Oil, and its widespread effect on US consumers, were the story of the day. The major indexes were all off about 1%.
And, speaking of hot areas- a fertilizer company went public on the NYSE today. It was priced at $32 and traded to $50- this shows were the strength in the market lies.

Yahoo numbers were out after the bell, and I believe their numbers are meaningless. It’s all about Mr. Softy buying them out, which also doesn’t matter other than to show there can be big boy consolidation. Microsoft wants to buy Yahoo! as a platform to try to take on Google- I heard one metaphor I liked- like two drunks holding each other up. Not much of a challenge, even combined. However, Yahoo came in at $.11 per share- and the stock is reasonably flat in after hours trading.

One of my favorite stocks is getting hit on a post close earnings release. CREE came in with $.05 vs the $.11 the market was looking for, and the stock is down to $28 in afterhours trading. As a reminder- buy around $25 to $26- sell covered calls in the mid $.30’s- this may be a buying opportunity.

Last week’s micro darling- Spicy Pickle (SPKL), was out with post close news today. Their Michigan franchisee has signed two leases for new stores expected to open this summer. The good stuff just keeps coming, and the stock is destined for higher levels.

Nighthawk (NIHK) followers responded pretty well to the weekend edition, with the stock eclipsing the $.05 level for the first time in a while.

All in all, a pretty lackluster day, but nonetheless important in the bottoming process for the markets. Clearly, some sectors are hot, others ice cold.

Huge day in the broader markets. Google was up $90 bucks- unbelievable- why didn’t I have a few calls on that stock? It was only a 20% move, but can you imagine having a few calls at $10, making a $90 move in one day? Awesome. I guarantee some shorts got absolutely hammered in that stock.

There were 127 new highs on the NYSE, which is a very healthy number and suggests strength in the market. However, the NASDAQ is lagging with only 52 new highs- smaller stocks have not been invited to the party yet, and the Russel 2000 is lagging way behind. We need to see some strength in the small and microcap sector to really see some bids come back.

This rally is coming at the expense of short seller and bonds- the 10 Year has moved a full 4 basis points this week-  that’s a huge move taking interest rates from 3.4% to 3.8%. Money is flowing out of bonds into stocks.

The anemic volumes in the small stock end of the market are still keeping stocks depressed. That coupled with an usually high number of redemptions at microcap funds, has the supply in that arena continuing to collar upside.

SPKL had on OK day, only giving back $.01 of yesterday’s move. EFSF was sideways as well, along with PNWIF and NIHK- the subject of the weekend edition.

The large cap action is encouraging- suggesting we will see some action in the small cap world in the near future.

Great news this week from Intel, IBM, and now Google has absolutely smashed the number analysts were looking for.

$4.42 was the estimate- the whisper number was $4.38 (lower, which is weird)- the real number was $4.84 on $3.7 billion in sales.

If after hours trading, the stock is up nearly $50 - wow!!!!!!! Talk about a short trap- I assure you there are some short sellers that are getting absolutely mauled on this news. The Bear just isn’t growling as loud as he was in February. Unlike mortgage, finance, and banking, its nice to know the world is not coming apart in tech land.

AMD also out with numbers after the close- losses were worse than expected, and the stock is up- imagine that.

On the slightly negative side- bonds are getting killed as money is running back into stocks- that is not good for most of us as it means interest rates are headed up.

In micro land- we had a great day with SPKL- the stock traded back above the $1 level today and closed at $.95- good stuff. Same store sales growth is quite remarkable in this environment. It was the highest volume day in 2008. In all likelihood this stock has made its bear market bottom at $.70- right now, a prudent trader should pounce on this stock in the $.85 range. Not sure it will get there, but if it does- be ready.

NIHK perked up nicely yesterday, but gave back some of the gains today. More on this one in the weekend edition. The press release associated with the earnings predicted the company would turn profitable in Q4- this is a good candidate to start waking up.

PNWIF continues in its endless coma in a news vacuum. Guys- get some updates out.

I noticed TTGL put out a 10Q with no press release. $21 million in cash, but $31 million in payables- big trouble there. Probably a good idea to be out if you aren’t already.

EFSF holding above $.20. Hallelujah. I’ll take any small victory I can get after Q1.

This is all pointing to a better market environment ahead.

As you all know, I have been trying to get some info on commercial scheduling, so you can all have an approximate time to turn on the TV and watch the Cinnergen and Cinnechol commercials.

According to this week’s news, it appears the commercials are now being broadcast on Fox News, the Gameshow Network, Discovery Health, and the History Channel, and could eventually be viewed by as many as 300 million households.

I have learned that since we are still in testing phase, the scheduling can change on a moment’s notice. Therefore, the company does not want to publish a schedule at this time. If you were to look for the commercial at a certain time, and it didn’t appear as scheduled, the company is concerned investors will think there is a problem when there isn’t one.

I am informed this testing phase will go on for about thirty days- through the month of April. Once past, the schedule should be more predictable.

In the interim, you can view a couple different versions of the commercial at the respective web sites of the products, or just watch any of the above mentioned networks at your leisure.

Both these web sites appear to be very well done commercial sites. I note this, because there has been some griping in the past about their web presence. Visit www.cinnergendirect.com and/or www.cinnechol.com to view the respective clips.

NIHK finally came out with its long overdue 10k. I don’t quite understand why companies cannot get these things out in a timely manner. Every CEO knows- if their year end is on the calender year, that their numbers are due out by the end of March to be compliant. Then, you can get a two week extension without penalty. If you falter from there, the consequences can include losing your listing.

At the 11.9999th hour, NIHK Doug Saathoff finally delivered, and the news is bringing some life back to the stock.

I am going to have to dig into the financials to come up with some comments on how they are performing. The losses were quite severe, but you have to differentiate between operational losses, and one time cash and non cash expenses associated with the acquisition of the set top box business. Then we can get a feel for the overall health of the business.

I won’t be able to grind through it until later tomorrow, so expect a BLOG on it perhaps Friday with more useful information.

In the interim, of particular note, is the associated press release wherein CEO Saathoff forecasts $10 million in revs this year. If gross margins remain at 23%, this would imply the company will generate $2.3 million to cover costs. And, they expect to turn (dare I say it) profitable by Q4. I don’t know if Mr. Saathoff means cash flow positive or EPS, but I will endeavor to find out.

While the stock hasn’t quite traded 1 million shares yet today, it is finding some support, and looking like it could try to move higher.

More probably on Friday.

Another quiet day in the markets with an upside bias in both larger caps and micro land. The two stocks that seem to want to work higher right now- SPKL and EFSF.

EFSF seems to finally be willing to hang on to that elusive $.20 which can act as a springboard to higher levels. News today about their Direct Marketing initiatives, and the market seemed to like it. Nothing wrong with this stock that a few 2 million share days won’t fix.

SPKL had another 100k share plus day, holding recent gains. Please listen to the conference call tomorrow at 4:15 Eastern- dial (866) 696-5897. If you can’t dial in, and have a question you want answered, send me an email at editor@otcjournal.com.

Washington Mutual (WM) reported a $1.40 loss- the stock is up nicely in after hours trading. Bad news is good for stocks- that’s a sign of moving back towards a Bull Market.
Intel (INTC)- up 6% on earnings. Came in at $.25 on a $.25 estimate. Margins were good, and the market loves it. AMG came in a little light, so there was some concern it was an industry wide problem. Apparently, INTC might be pirating some business from AMG.

This all bodes well for another nice up day in the markets tomorrow. Of course- there is one big negative- oil at $113- ouch. US demand is down about 7% from last year, but there is still an oil bubble inflating out there. Eventually, this price will have to moderate world wide demand, and the price will correct. Two years ago I would have thought we would be in a full blown depression with $113 oil, but apparently we are more resilient than that.

I have some absolutely fantastic alternative energy ideas coming. Stay tuned.

The market has every to melt down right now. Between numbers on the economy, the GE numbers last Friday, the recent run up in stocks, and the lowered estimates by Arch Coal, the market should be absolutely tanking.

However, all we are doing is giving a little ground against this very rough back drop.

When bad news stops driving down stocks, you know you are close to a bottom in the market. Last week WM- Washington Mutual - one of the biggest sub prime lenders- announced it was raising $7 billion from a private equity- Wachovia is said to be following suit- guess what- WM made a 50% move to the upside on the news, which was short lived.

The big money is now moving into blown out financials at bottom basement prices- making the assumption the worst of the sub prime mess is behind us, and these lending institutions will do very well in the next low interest environment.

Of particular interest is the dollar- Bernanke’s plan to provide liquidity to the system without printing money has the dollar firming. Check out UUP- that’s the ETF to go long the dollar. It has started making a series of higher lows, and looks like it could be completing a bottom process.

If the dollar firms, two things will happen- 1. The big “trade” will begin to unwind- long oil and short the dollar, and 2. International money will pour back into US equities. It has been on the sidelines for sometime as the perception is that the stocks can go up, but if the dollar goes down they make no gain.

On the micro side, SPKL is making a very good showing today on a nice volume blip. Investors are anticipating something good out of the company with the conference call coming on Wednesday. Investors are also recognizing the stock is cheap.

EFSF is also trying to make a come back- it finally appears to be ready to hold on to that  elusive $.20 level- still waiting for a broadcast schedule.

NIHK still has not done their 10k filing, along with CPNE, who I really don’t care that much about anymore.

On the short term side, I am out of the RIMM trade. The theme was right, the security and the timing were wrong. I know some of you lost money, others who were smarter, had better timing, or just plain lucky made money.

Right now, I would prefer a couple of nice down days to go long. I believe the worst is behind us. Bad news no longer drives stocks down. For the most part- it’s all priced in and we are poised to return to better times.

The market gapped down this AM on the heels of the GE earnings missed, pushing RIMM down a couple of points. After yesterday’s rebound in RIMM, this was a heaven sent event, but only pared my losses on this idea marginally.

Had I shorted the stock, or bought the options another month out, I probably still would have made money on this trade. However, time was running short on the trade, and I couldn’t take the risk of staying in any longer.

Now, RIMM will no doubt completely fall apart and head right down the to $110 level I was looking for. I believe I lost about $9k on the 20 puts I sold today. Ouch. It’s going to take a good trade to make up for that one.