I guess it was inevitable. EFSF, which was the last hold out of this past season’s winners, finally succumbed to selling pressure, threw in the towel, and gave ground.
Frankly, I thought the stock made a valiant effort to hold up as long as it did while all the other small stocks around it were falling out of bed.
EFSF had been holding in the $.36 to $.40 range, a double from this past January. All in all, a pretty stalwart performance.
The stock start starting slipping on higher volume last Thursday, and continued selling off fairly aggressively through Friday and into this morning.
No doubt, the complete absence of news concerning fundamental progress out of the company over the last few months has been responsible for the recent drop in the stock along with a seasonally rough time for micros in general.
The company has four products worth getting excited about: Cinnergen- a natural product to control blood sugar levels; Cinnechol: A natural product to control cholesterol; Oraphyte: a natural product to control nematodes (round worms) in agriculture; and PurEffect: an acne skin cream product. There are several others the company is working on, but those seem to be the main focus.
Of the four, only one is commercially available, and I’m sure investors are getting impatient. Cinnergen is in stores and online- I have seen the add for it on CNN- sales must be growing for the product, and there is nothing but upside there. However, there hasn’t been any news for at least two months on Cinnechol, Oraphyte, or PurEffect.
Cinnechol was supposed to be available by now. Oraphyte is being evaluated by Dupont. PerEffect is supposed to be going to market via informercial, but there is no public information on the status.
So, is it any wonder that in a seasonally rough time, shareholders of EFSF are becoming a little impatient and the stock is getting hit?
So, where does that put us now? Here’s the chart:
This is a daily chart going back to when the stock started behaving much better early in ’07 and the OTC Journal starting covering the stock. The first day, you could have picked up all you wanted in the $.20 range, so it’s still a 50% move from January- great by any standards.
However, if you paid up for the stock and you are still in it, you have to consider your options right now. My SSL was $.32, and it is trading below that level. If you haven’t sold and are interested in preservation of capital and willing to walk away, you need to sell now.
If you still like the company and where it is headed (we all hope), now you simply have to hang in there and take a longer term view.
I wouldn’t rush out to buy it today- I’d like to see it hang around in the $.30 range for a few days to convince me the “hot” money is out. This is the 61.8% retracement level, and the stock is likely to gravitate there for the time being.
Of course, then you run the risk that the company will come out with some market moving news, and the stock will be right back in shape.
I guess Rome wasn’t built in one day, so we need to have a little patience with this one. Typically, here’s what happens. You finally give up and throw in the towel, and then the company turns around and delivers big news after months of waiting. Isn’t that typical?
Most if not all of the damage has probably been done. If you haven’t sold, it might be a good idea to hold your nose and hang in there at this point. This one could get hot overnight- there are a lot of investors watching the story, and the company has a very loyal shareholder base.
Comments and questions are welcome.