TCGD announced a change at the top on Thursday after them market closed, and despite the huge drubbing the overall market took on Friday, the stock managed a nice, low volume rebound off its oversold, post Holiday condition.
I don’t think the market has totally caught on how strong this new CEO really is. This guy was in charge of all the security for the Israeli border and airports. That would make him one of the most knowledgeable and well connected terrorist experts in the free world.
Here’s what we do know: His role as CEO will open a lot of doors for the company. Also, we know a guy like this would not take the job unless the technology was very commercially viable.
We don’t know if he’s a good salesman yet. I hope he is, and can get the company rolling down the path to commercial success.
Here’s the chart showing Friday’s rebound:
The stock made a nice move on Friday, but has not broken back above the downtrend line yet. This suggests there could be some backing and filling before the stock is really ready to regain some serious ground.
This is not the kind of company that is going to be able to deliver a commercially relevant press release every week. It’s a zero revenue development company, and will take some time to get there.
Therefore, the stock could go through long periods of quiet trading, which lends its “personality” to long term investors. In this kind of company, the breakthroughs can be quite robust, which can lead to very abrupt, short term moves. Tough to trade, but good for the long term.
If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to post them. It might take a little time to get answers, as the company is located in Israel, but I will try.
Thanks for the info I do think this is a good idea once it get to market.long term is not a bad thing but no info sometimes is
Editor: It only matters if you are a trader. Long term, the company will either be a big success or it won’t. We’ll be around to find out.
TTGL is taking a pounding. I see it as a golden opportunity before Q1 revenue numbers come out. Your thoughts?
Thanks. -Jo
Editor: It’s very frustrating- Q1 numbers will be the first with Appalachian Oil- they will contain about 2 1/2 months of Appalachian and some of US Detergent. Seems like there has to be some recognition at some point. The numbers are due out in mid January- just a week away.
it looks like the bottom is going to fall on this one today I think the last couple of ideas have really bad mangement ttgl this one and I starting to think efsf as well is there any hope
Editor: There is always hope. They will turn around when everyone completely gives up and no one believes any stock could ever go up again.
I think I understand the TraceGaurd discriminator (over other explosive detection systems) to be the way it collects the air sample (from laptops and other electronics). But once that sample is collected do we know anything about the detection process itself? Is is, for example, flourescence quenching or non-nuclear ionization? Also what materials does it detect (i.e. C4, TNT, black powder)? Would be helpful to better understand the detection technology and how it stacks up against others for reliability, false positivies, etc. Can you find out?
Editor: Here is your answer:
The answer is very easy – we do the sampling not the detecting.
There are many companies making detectors using different kind of technology. The only ones that are approved by the TSA for use in airports are the chemical analyzers manufactured mostly by Smiths detection and GE. Those analyzers are very good but if they don’t have the sample they are useless.
Our equipment is an add-on to the current detection equipment making it much more effective.
Let me know if you need any more information,
Now it seems very clear the importance of the Smiths letter of intent. Any status on firming up that relationship? Have they ever worked with or plan to work with GE detectors? Is the Smiths relationship exclusive? How far off is a product? Does TCGD intend to manufacture, outsource or license?
Editor: The next steps will are likely to hear from the company concerns regulatory approvals by the TSA and the Israeli version of same to be allowed to sell their product. The Smiths relationship is moving forward as if it is final. This year should mark the transition to actual sales- stand by.
the 52 week high was 1.30 what where they doing before the drop in the stock and why is it selling at .45 today
Editor: Why is the sky blue? Pointing out the 52 week high and the current price is not a question. It’s an observation, and anyone can see that pretty easily. How about no news and a bear market- but you really don’t need me to figure that out. If you are worried and not long term, sell it. If you want to hang in there long term and see what happens, do so. Your choice. For a zero revenue risky story, they have some real upside. There is nothing I can do to change the realities of either the market or the news flow from the company.
I know this is high risk with no revenves and I feel this has a good chance but months without any news is hard to take. have you heard anything
Editor: All I know is that they are preparing to apply for the permits to sell their product in the US and Israel in partnership with Smiths Detection. Other than that, I haven’t heard squat from them.
today we hit a 52 week low on high volume for this stock do you think this is a total lost
Editor: no, I don’t think it’s a total loss. I think they couldn’t have picked a worse time to have very little to say as the market is trading so poorly, but I believe the company will have some positive developments throughout the course of the year.
I have emailed them 3 times and get the standard “Someone will reply soon” but they never do. I think they should have some of their upper management contact info on their website. I have emailed other companies I have invested in, and they always respond the same day and in a professional manner. Those companies indicated they are well run when they handle something as small as an email inquiry correctly. I am “underwhelmed” with them.
Editor: Let’s see if I can do something to get you a response.
You have been quiet on this one. Not even mentioned in your daily blog. Can you get an update? Time to average down, hold, or forget it?
Editor: Definitely not time to dump. I have been in contact with the company. Here’s the problem- they can’t publicly speak about what’s going on behind the scenes for security reasons. This company is going to be handcuffed on the information disclosure side, which is a real challenge. This is a very interesting company, but a lousy client. I will have a full update as soon as the company gets past some disclosures issues related to security.
re: last blog out all the crap I’ve read this one makes some sense
Editor: I’m not sure if there’s a question here.
the volume looks like its been going up a bit is there some hope?
Editor: I have been in touch with the management- their big problem- they can’t publicly say what’s going on at the company due to security issues. Eventually, it will all come out. For the time being, we are stuck in this terrible vacuum.
Are they not telling you anything under this “security issue” lockdown or are you bound by a non-disclosure to not discuss what you know?
Editor: I’m not sure I understand the question. I discussed a number of developments with the CFO recently, and what I heard was promising. What I also heard was- because of security issues, the company couldn’t disclose current events- this includes things like testing their device at airports, their relationship with Smiths, etc.
Often I see early in the market day that TCGD, PNWIF, and others only have traded 200 shares (e.g. TCGD 200 shares @ 0.32 = $64 plus commission). Why is someone trading such a small amount? Are they trying to see what the market will do?
Editor: Could be some market maker who was squaring up a position- or it could be an actual odd ball trade out there. I don’t know where you get $64 for commissions. I pay about $12, and I could find it lower. A lot of people like Scottrade. A couple of weeks ago I put in a limit order to buy 1000 shares of a $5 stock. Believe it or not, I got filled for 1 share. Hysterical.
What does the material defintive agreement with golden gate investors do for this company ?
Editor: This is not too complicated- they have been selling shares to raise capital. Not much of a surprise. They must have something going on to attract investors.
are you planning any up dates? volume has been up wondering if any thing is going on
Editor: The company keeps telling me there is a lot going on, but because of security concerns, they cannot disclose what’s going on at the back end. It would be nice to get past this log jam of poor information flow and find out if we’ve got anything here.
what do you think of the 10 Q filed 0n 5/15?
Editor: Sorry- I’m a little behind. Will have a look and share some thoughts before the end of the week.
It is my understanding that TSA has delayed procurement of “puff portals” based on resolution of issues. Here is one reference
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003744097_puff12.html
I understand TCGD’s technology is similar. What are they doing to resolve these issues to TSA’s satisfaction?
Editor: I guess you could look at that information as a negative or a positive. Clearly, if their technology works a lot better, it can replace the poor technology the TSA has deployed. If it’s just the same stuff in different clothing. I forwarded the article to the CFO for comment. Will bring share what I learn with you.
Anything new here?
Editor: Yes- while I was away they got their Israeli approval. More on that in today’s edition. A big positive.
That CFO is not very talkative or unresponsive. Any response to the “puff portal” issue?
Editor: He responded by saying the previous approvals proved the concept was sound, but the first generation machines had all sorts of problems. TCGD has now gotten the Israeli approval, which is toughest in the world. If the US comes next with orders, this one might do really well.
could this be the start of something good? also what effect will the selling of shares or warrants last week have?
Editor: Selling shares is a double edged sword. It gives the company capital, but also dilutes the ownership. You own a little less of a company that now has more capital. The Israeli approval is nothing but good news. Now we need a US approval and orders for product. That would be the best case scenario. The Israeli approval is by far the hardest to get.
Good news from July 1st: “CompactSafe(TM) System Certified as an Explosive Detection System at International Border Crossings
Company reports that the CompactSafe was certified at international border crossings by the Israeli Security Agency to replace manual processes of explosive detection”. They should now be able to start selling the product, if I’m not mistaken. Will you be doing an update shortly? Haven’t seen anything for a while.
Thanks
Editor: This happened while I was away- but yes, it is very positive and I plan to mention it in today’s edition.
Why is Traceguard stock now doing so badly.
Editor: Because the market is an absolute mess, and the company has not announced it has started selling its product. There are no buyers around anywhere. I would expect this to last through the summer, and improve in the Fall.
are you going to do a update on tcgd soon. I feel this could be a dark horse
Editor: As soon as the company gives me a reason to. The next step would be an approval for the TSA, then a pilot program. I’m not sure how close they are, but they got the Israeli version, which is the hardest in the world.
This is a dead horse, not a dark horse….like pretty much too many of your picks.
Your enthusiasm on so many of what you recomment is way over the top and way misleading.
Frankly, you are not very good.
Editor: If you held it below the SSL level of $.65, that’s your problem. It was published at the get go, so you need to pay better attention. I think this summer there are folks that would argue with you. I have been saying all along micros would be tough, so I gave you QID at $38, which chugged straight to my $46 target, where I said to close it out. In July I picked RIMM at $115 for a trade- now $134. People who recognized the tough market and traded these larger ideas made a lot of money. Now as we get into the Fall, it’s time to look at micros again. I suggest you watch the video on Suggested Stop Losses and Seasonality in the Markets. I might not be very good, but you might not be using the resources very well.
Coming from the man who gave us: (to mention just a few)
NIHK
TCGD
BTYH (NOT PALLIDAN)
UCMT
ENIGMA
This is a person we should trust?
Maybe you should go into politics….you seem to have the verbiage down fairly well.
Michael
Editor: Michael- Clearly, this is not for you. Yes- at the current time all losers. However, you, of course, only tell one side of the story. You don’t mention the published SSLs- which are all considerably higher than where everyone of those is trading. If you had simply followed the published and documented advice, you would have gotten out of every one of those with a reasonable loss. You need to do one of two things- either watch the Intro to the OTC Journal and the Suggest Stop Losses videos, or just hit the unsubscribe link and get out. This publication is a source of ideas for people who like micro cap stocks. There are going to be losers. If you can’t accept and understand that concept, this publication is definately not for you. Go find something that covers less risky stuff. This is clearly not for you. It’s not for everybody.
What do you think about both Vice president and CFO resigning? Have you heard anything about reasons or anything at all?
Editor: Good question- clearly, the company is financially strapped. They need to start selling product. They are raising money in small amounts to keep things moving forward. They might simply be moving the CFO to a position to outsource his participation to save money. I think this thing could wake up, or it could be a complete zero. The CFO used to communicate with me on occasion. Now, I don’t know who to contact. However, seems like something needs to change- perhaps this will be a positive. Tough to call. Will see what I can find out.
I’m thinking that the Grinkorn buying and the resignings happened at almost the same time. Can they have something to do with each other? Did Grinkorn demand change?
Editor: Possibly a good question- I have sent an email to the company in Israel for some clarification on this issue. Will publish when I have some idea what’s going on with the company.
When did the ceo and vice president resign ? I didn’t see it anywhere
Editor: I communicated with the former CFO, who is now a consultant to the company. He claims they have a lot going on, and would provide an update soon. His resignation was buried in an SEC filing.
Looks like a melt down. Pattern of selling with little regard for price. What is up?
Editor: I recently actually got some rather positive feedback from management concerning future developments. However, I’m not prepared to believe anything until they deliver. I suspect it is as you point out- someone with a reasonable amount of stock wants out with no regard for the market price. If you want out of a stock, the back half of August is seasonally the worst time of year to do it. You certainly don’t get rewarded for it.
Do you have any idea how their cash situation is right now? For how long are they going to be able to manage without a placement?
Editor: Based on their last filing, not long. However, they did a private placement and raised about 1/4 million since then- late July. They probably have money to last a little while as they are past the independent testing phase, which was quite expensive. This is one of those companies that might have to suffer severe dilution to survive. Or, it may die. They need orders really soon. Highly risky at this point.
Great story – Isreal airports etc….lousy execution. Just like all your other stinks.
Editor: What a jerk. Why don’t you have the courage to take some personal responsibility. I suppose the Bear Market, the mortgage meltdown, Lehman Brothers, and the sub prime mortgage meltdown are my fault as well. You are not suited for this end of the market, or this publication, or me. Take your pick. This is not for you. Go find some other place to complain. I’m done listening to you.
I am a long term investor. What is the situation on TRACE GUARD
MICHAEL
Editor: I have not heard from them for several months beyond the former CFO replying to an email stating they were making a lot of progress. I don’t see the progress in any concrete form, and the stock is certainly saying there is nothing going on. This one is a major concern to me as they have no cash flow from sales, and in this environment I don’t know how they are going to raise capital to keep going. They will probably ratchet down to a tiny office and do the SEC filings to stay alive until conditions improve and they can get moving again.
So TCGD is now a previously covered company? Guess I missed that news. What is up?
Editor: Nothing. Haven’t heard a word from them in months, aside from one email from the former CFO telling me they were getting close to something. Meantime, since they are a zero revenue company, I have no idea where they are going to get the money to keep the doors open. There’s really not much to cover. Every other really small stock I am covering at least has revenues, so they can stay alive.
Company reports that the CompactSafe was certified at international border crossings by the Israeli Security Agency to replace manual processes of explosive detection Why would the Israeli Security Agency apporve this if the company can not deliver it
Editor: It’s great they have approved it, but they now have to order it, and I haven’t seen any news of any purchase orders.
Do you know if this company continues to operate? Are they marketing and developing still? Are they making payroll? Can you find out?
Editor: Based on the SEC filings they are. However, clearly there is major distress here. I don’t know if they will be able to continue operations.