TraceGuard Change At the Top Starts Rebound
TCGD announced a change at the top on Thursday after them market closed, and despite the huge drubbing the overall market took on Friday, the stock managed a nice, low volume rebound off its oversold, post Holiday condition.
I don’t think the market has totally caught on how strong this new CEO really is. This guy was in charge of all the security for the Israeli border and airports. That would make him one of the most knowledgeable and well connected terrorist experts in the free world.
Here’s what we do know: His role as CEO will open a lot of doors for the company. Also, we know a guy like this would not take the job unless the technology was very commercially viable.
We don’t know if he’s a good salesman yet. I hope he is, and can get the company rolling down the path to commercial success.
Here’s the chart showing Friday’s rebound:
The stock made a nice move on Friday, but has not broken back above the downtrend line yet. This suggests there could be some backing and filling before the stock is really ready to regain some serious ground.
This is not the kind of company that is going to be able to deliver a commercially relevant press release every week. It’s a zero revenue development company, and will take some time to get there.
Therefore, the stock could go through long periods of quiet trading, which lends its “personality” to long term investors. In this kind of company, the breakthroughs can be quite robust, which can lead to very abrupt, short term moves. Tough to trade, but good for the long term.
If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to post them. It might take a little time to get answers, as the company is located in Israel, but I will try.
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Why is Traceguard stock now doing so badly.
Editor: Because the market is an absolute mess, and the company has not announced it has started selling its product. There are no buyers around anywhere. I would expect this to last through the summer, and improve in the Fall.
Comment by Michael — 7/14/2008 @ 10:48 am
Good news from July 1st: “CompactSafe(TM) System Certified as an Explosive Detection System at International Border Crossings
Company reports that the CompactSafe was certified at international border crossings by the Israeli Security Agency to replace manual processes of explosive detection”. They should now be able to start selling the product, if I’m not mistaken. Will you be doing an update shortly? Haven’t seen anything for a while.
Thanks
Editor: This happened while I was away- but yes, it is very positive and I plan to mention it in today’s edition.
Comment by Axel — 7/4/2008 @ 8:22 am
could this be the start of something good? also what effect will the selling of shares or warrants last week have?
Editor: Selling shares is a double edged sword. It gives the company capital, but also dilutes the ownership. You own a little less of a company that now has more capital. The Israeli approval is nothing but good news. Now we need a US approval and orders for product. That would be the best case scenario. The Israeli approval is by far the hardest to get.
Comment by Rob — 7/2/2008 @ 7:17 pm
That CFO is not very talkative or unresponsive. Any response to the “puff portal” issue?
Editor: He responded by saying the previous approvals proved the concept was sound, but the first generation machines had all sorts of problems. TCGD has now gotten the Israeli approval, which is toughest in the world. If the US comes next with orders, this one might do really well.
Comment by Joe — 6/26/2008 @ 8:00 pm
Anything new here?
Editor: Yes- while I was away they got their Israeli approval. More on that in today’s edition. A big positive.
Comment by Lisa — 6/25/2008 @ 6:25 am
It is my understanding that TSA has delayed procurement of “puff portals” based on resolution of issues. Here is one reference
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2003744097_puff12.html
I understand TCGD’s technology is similar. What are they doing to resolve these issues to TSA’s satisfaction?
Editor: I guess you could look at that information as a negative or a positive. Clearly, if their technology works a lot better, it can replace the poor technology the TSA has deployed. If it’s just the same stuff in different clothing. I forwarded the article to the CFO for comment. Will bring share what I learn with you.
Comment by Joe — 6/3/2008 @ 7:56 pm
what do you think of the 10 Q filed 0n 5/15?
Editor: Sorry- I’m a little behind. Will have a look and share some thoughts before the end of the week.
Comment by rob — 5/20/2008 @ 5:26 am
are you planning any up dates? volume has been up wondering if any thing is going on
Editor: The company keeps telling me there is a lot going on, but because of security concerns, they cannot disclose what’s going on at the back end. It would be nice to get past this log jam of poor information flow and find out if we’ve got anything here.
Comment by rob — 5/19/2008 @ 1:18 pm
What does the material defintive agreement with golden gate investors do for this company ?
Editor: This is not too complicated- they have been selling shares to raise capital. Not much of a surprise. They must have something going on to attract investors.
Comment by rob — 5/12/2008 @ 10:00 am
Often I see early in the market day that TCGD, PNWIF, and others only have traded 200 shares (e.g. TCGD 200 shares @ 0.32 = $64 plus commission). Why is someone trading such a small amount? Are they trying to see what the market will do?
Editor: Could be some market maker who was squaring up a position- or it could be an actual odd ball trade out there. I don’t know where you get $64 for commissions. I pay about $12, and I could find it lower. A lot of people like Scottrade. A couple of weeks ago I put in a limit order to buy 1000 shares of a $5 stock. Believe it or not, I got filled for 1 share. Hysterical.
Comment by Regis — 5/2/2008 @ 6:50 am
Are they not telling you anything under this “security issue” lockdown or are you bound by a non-disclosure to not discuss what you know?
Editor: I’m not sure I understand the question. I discussed a number of developments with the CFO recently, and what I heard was promising. What I also heard was- because of security issues, the company couldn’t disclose current events- this includes things like testing their device at airports, their relationship with Smiths, etc.
Comment by Joe — 4/18/2008 @ 12:44 pm
the volume looks like its been going up a bit is there some hope?
Editor: I have been in touch with the management- their big problem- they can’t publicly say what’s going on at the company due to security issues. Eventually, it will all come out. For the time being, we are stuck in this terrible vacuum.
Comment by Rob — 4/10/2008 @ 4:02 pm
re: last blog out all the crap I’ve read this one makes some sense
Editor: I’m not sure if there’s a question here.
Comment by rob — 4/1/2008 @ 1:11 pm
You have been quiet on this one. Not even mentioned in your daily blog. Can you get an update? Time to average down, hold, or forget it?
Editor: Definitely not time to dump. I have been in contact with the company. Here’s the problem- they can’t publicly speak about what’s going on behind the scenes for security reasons. This company is going to be handcuffed on the information disclosure side, which is a real challenge. This is a very interesting company, but a lousy client. I will have a full update as soon as the company gets past some disclosures issues related to security.
Comment by Joe — 3/25/2008 @ 7:45 pm
I have emailed them 3 times and get the standard “Someone will reply soon” but they never do. I think they should have some of their upper management contact info on their website. I have emailed other companies I have invested in, and they always respond the same day and in a professional manner. Those companies indicated they are well run when they handle something as small as an email inquiry correctly. I am “underwhelmed” with them.
Editor: Let’s see if I can do something to get you a response.
Comment by Lisa — 2/29/2008 @ 9:37 am
today we hit a 52 week low on high volume for this stock do you think this is a total lost
Editor: no, I don’t think it’s a total loss. I think they couldn’t have picked a worse time to have very little to say as the market is trading so poorly, but I believe the company will have some positive developments throughout the course of the year.
Comment by jim — 2/22/2008 @ 2:35 pm
I know this is high risk with no revenves and I feel this has a good chance but months without any news is hard to take. have you heard anything
Editor: All I know is that they are preparing to apply for the permits to sell their product in the US and Israel in partnership with Smiths Detection. Other than that, I haven’t heard squat from them.
Comment by Rob — 2/19/2008 @ 10:58 am
the 52 week high was 1.30 what where they doing before the drop in the stock and why is it selling at .45 today
Editor: Why is the sky blue? Pointing out the 52 week high and the current price is not a question. It’s an observation, and anyone can see that pretty easily. How about no news and a bear market- but you really don’t need me to figure that out. If you are worried and not long term, sell it. If you want to hang in there long term and see what happens, do so. Your choice. For a zero revenue risky story, they have some real upside. There is nothing I can do to change the realities of either the market or the news flow from the company.
Comment by Rob — 2/11/2008 @ 9:59 am
Now it seems very clear the importance of the Smiths letter of intent. Any status on firming up that relationship? Have they ever worked with or plan to work with GE detectors? Is the Smiths relationship exclusive? How far off is a product? Does TCGD intend to manufacture, outsource or license?
Editor: The next steps will are likely to hear from the company concerns regulatory approvals by the TSA and the Israeli version of same to be allowed to sell their product. The Smiths relationship is moving forward as if it is final. This year should mark the transition to actual sales- stand by.
Comment by Joe — 1/24/2008 @ 8:48 pm
I think I understand the TraceGaurd discriminator (over other explosive detection systems) to be the way it collects the air sample (from laptops and other electronics). But once that sample is collected do we know anything about the detection process itself? Is is, for example, flourescence quenching or non-nuclear ionization? Also what materials does it detect (i.e. C4, TNT, black powder)? Would be helpful to better understand the detection technology and how it stacks up against others for reliability, false positivies, etc. Can you find out?
Editor: Here is your answer:
The answer is very easy – we do the sampling not the detecting.
There are many companies making detectors using different kind of technology. The only ones that are approved by the TSA for use in airports are the chemical analyzers manufactured mostly by Smiths detection and GE. Those analyzers are very good but if they don’t have the sample they are useless.
Our equipment is an add-on to the current detection equipment making it much more effective.
Let me know if you need any more information,
Comment by Joe — 1/20/2008 @ 4:36 pm
it looks like the bottom is going to fall on this one today I think the last couple of ideas have really bad mangement ttgl this one and I starting to think efsf as well is there any hope
Editor: There is always hope. They will turn around when everyone completely gives up and no one believes any stock could ever go up again.
Comment by Rob — 1/18/2008 @ 6:32 am
TTGL is taking a pounding. I see it as a golden opportunity before Q1 revenue numbers come out. Your thoughts?
Thanks. -Jo
Editor: It’s very frustrating- Q1 numbers will be the first with Appalachian Oil- they will contain about 2 1/2 months of Appalachian and some of US Detergent. Seems like there has to be some recognition at some point. The numbers are due out in mid January- just a week away.
Comment by Joseph — 1/8/2008 @ 11:22 am
Thanks for the info I do think this is a good idea once it get to market.long term is not a bad thing but no info sometimes is
Editor: It only matters if you are a trader. Long term, the company will either be a big success or it won’t. We’ll be around to find out.
Comment by jim — 1/7/2008 @ 6:51 am