The market tanked the second half of last week, and TTGL, which has really run up the charts of late, is finally giving some ground.
Big, spiky runs- my favorite time to sell hot stocks. Pullbacks when the market sells off- or long periods of quiet trading- my favorite time to buy.
So, if you’re becoming a believer in TTGL’s forecast of 3/4 of a billion in sales next fiscal year, and believe the stock has a lot more upside at about a $100 million market cap, you should be looking at where to jump in now that the market is tanking and the stock is giving a bit of ground.
Here’s the chart:
As you can see, the stock really streaked from about the $1.50 level to $2.20- it only took six trading days. The acquisition binge of relatively large companies, along with TTGL’s demonstration of belief in itself buy buying and retiring 1 million shares out of the open market, has investors piling in.
So, if you aren’t on board and want to be, is it smart to just jump in now? You never know- this stock could just keep charging up the charts. However, big spiky rises generally give way to pullbacks, and that’s the time to grab the stock.
This chart tells me $1.94 is a good place to jump in, and $1.78 would be a great place. I not prepared to discuss where it might go from here as I don’t have enough facts at this time, but higher seems to be a pretty good bet.
Comments and questions are welcome.
Thanks for the Titan update. Although i agree with you that revenue for the next year (provided AppCo, USDA deals go through successfully) will be much higher than the past years revenue.
However, i am afraid TTGL might have jumped the gun and is at risk of “over promising”. For example, their project sales for Titan Card services is $45 million. This is a totally new division (not an acquistion), and they go and project a whopping $45 million, close to 40% of their revenue from the whole of last year.
Dont get me wrong, i do like the Titan management team — but i am a little skeptical here. Your thoughts?
Thanks,
-joe
Editor: As I have been saying, it’s really not about the forecasted sales- that is not a concern because even if they are wrong and the $45 is really $20, with the acquisitions the stock still has lots of upside. I am more concerned about what kind of leverage they are taking on to complete these acquisitions, how much dillution, and how much debt they will have to service on a go forward basis. It’s too early to evaluate, because we don’t have the details.
Any further update on the pending case with AT&T. In a previous post you thought it had been settled.
Editor: I never did hear the outcome of that, and for all I know it could still be pending. I can never seem to reach the CEO, as he is quite busy these days obviously.
How about changing your chart color schemes to replace the blue lines with yellow…we might be able to actually read them!
Editor: You know, I was noticing the blue lines are difficult to see. That’s a good suggestion. I am traveling now, but when I get back I will look at either brightening them up or going to yellow as you suggest.
I don’t understand why there are not more comments on your stocks. They certainly move around enough to demand some good email! What do you think of Titan’s financing? I was surprised the warrants are out of the money. Please let me know if you still like this one, I bought more at $1.87.
Jeff
Editor: I believe there is plenty of upside in this stock from $1.87. Great retracement to pick up some shares. Two of my 2007/07 big winners look technically very good right now- PNWIF and TTGL. There’s also this weekend’s new idea, which I hope you like.
AppCo acquistion seems to have been completed. Maybe time for a new price target. Would love to hear your thoughts on their financing, etc?
Editor: Don’t have time to get to it this week. Will revisit next week after the launch of this weekend’s new idea, which is completely dominating my time. You will find out why.
Any thoughts on financing details of the Appco acquisition?
Editor: Will share in the next week or two. Right now, can’t see past this weekend’s new idea.
I got a chance to listen to the TTGL conference call. The CEO seems real bullish on reaching a NASDAQ listing and at least a $4 stock price. I feel the AT&T settlement might be quite favorable and could amount to a lot of shareholder value. Your Thoughts and new price targets
Editor: My thought is that $4 is a reasonable expectation at this point throughout the course of the next 6 months. My thoughts will be more formalized in a week or two when I have some time to take a hard look at things and produce some content. Currently, I am too engaged with this weekend’s new idea launch.
Any idea when TTGL will publish earnings guidance including Appco for Fiscal 08?
Thanks.
Editor: I believe it will be pretty soon.
I have been trying to get some information from their IR reg earnings guidance a couple of times but no answer whatsoever. It seems Trilogy is doing a horrible job (if any at all?). Maybe Titan should look for another IR company. Do you have any contact directly at Titan to get some info? Very nice company & recent share price appreciation but lousy IR.
Thanks.
Editor: Coming- perhaps next week.
What do you think of the recent news? Settles the AT&T deal and announces today completes aquisition of USA detergents. This stock seems way undervalued to me!
Editor: As I said in last night’s edition, I believe this could be a $4 number.
Is it fair to value TTGL @7.80 based on projected earnings ave of .26.(24 to .28 company estimate)Based on a P/E of 30?
Editor: Could be. It will have to go through $4 to get there.
What is the effect of the sale announced after the market closed on the 19th?
Paul
Editor: Sorry for the delay in responding. I was separated from my computer by the San Diego fires. It will either give you a share dividend in another company, or benefit you as a shareholder as TTGL will own shares in a NASDAQ company instead of being burdened with a money losing division.