NIHK finally filed its only slightly delinquent annual audited financial statement last night, and things were pretty much as I expected them to be.
As I have said all along, my expectations are for NIHK, as a minimum, to double its sales levels from 2006 to 2007.
I was expecting to see perhaps $1 million in revs for the first time in ’06, but they came in at $900k. This means they did about $300k in Q4- which is the most they have ever achieved in their entire history in one quarter. Always nice to see.
Of even greater importance- and a pretty good achievement- their convertible debt level came down by nearly $1 million in Q4-from $2.8 million to $1.9 million. That’s simply great to see, and it will no doubt come down considerably more in Q1. The stock’s recent strong performance for both volume and price will aid that picture considerably.
I am pretty excited about the possibilities for 2007- as CEO Doug Saathoff notes in his press release concerning the numbers- the company has expanded its base of existing customers in the utility space, and uncovered a number of new applications for its technology outside the utility space. There are a number of home run possibilities looking out into 2007. Many more than we had at the beginning of 2006.
NIHK has been backing off a bit of late. Investors were reminded with the filing of yesterday’s 10k that Nighthawk is still a little company with pretty big potential.
Based on the current I&O- which stands at about 96 million- we can figure there are 100 million I&O, and that number will probably continue to climb. Therefore, at $.20, the market was placing a value on Nighthawk of $20 million. It was, perhaps, a little ahead of itself.
The stock pulled back a little as I was cautioning everyone it probably would, and here’s the chart as of today. No big surprise- look what happened when it hit the 61.8% retracement of the recent run:
The stock hit the $.14 level, which was the perfect 61.8% retracement, and bounced. This works nearly every time.
As I cautioned everyone when the stock was trading at $.20- investors were buying because the stock was going up- not because they liked the company.
You need to like the company first, then accumulate at levels that give you upside.
I still believe NIHK can be a $.25 stock in 2007. They just need an expansion of sales down some of the roads they are pointed towards. Factory ventilation with DaimlerChrysler could lead to bigger and better sales. Cell phone tower generator remote starters with Verizon could be in the pipeline. EL Paso G&E could greatly expand the recurring revenue model, and the utility sales could really take off.
$.14 seems like a much better level for accumulation with a $.10 SSL. The stock is behaving pretty much according to the book.
The stock is dropping everyday – to .124 today – past your buy idea of .14 — why all the selling and no buying….time to get out??
Editor: You have got to be kidding me! You didn’t read my last 4 postings stating point blank it was time to take some money off the table when the stock was trading in the $.20 to $.24 range? I couldn’t have said it any plainer. Now is the time to think about buying.
Regarding your previous comment, I believe you have been speaking plainly about the technical signals to buy/sell. More to the point, I’ve been watching your 1 million share position decrease even when you’ve been recommending a buy. You’re stated position is down over 75% and I have a hard time reconciling that large a move as taking “some” money off the table. What gives?
Editor: In the BLOG on both 4/2 and 4/10 I told readers to take some money off the table. Go back and read the blog- there is no question in the language- take either all or partial profits. The choice is yours as to how much you sell. ON 4/2 the stock was trading at $.15- $.20 on 4/10. This is after months of suggesting accumulation in the $.06 to $.09 range. Yes- I am selling nearly all according to my own advice- and got all of it sold above $.15- Now- I am in a different position than you are. I am negotiating with the company to cover them for another year, which would include an additional block of newly issued restricted shares. I could simply take the profits and walk away, but I believe the company has a lot more upside over time, and want to stay involved. In that sense, my recent sales were a partial sale. However, from day 1 I have had a price target of $.13- Price target means sell. I don’t know how to state it more plainly.
My position never declined when I was recommending a buy. The sales were all between 4/3 and 4/15. That is precisely when I was suggesting a sell. I have a little more to sell, but it’s not because I don’t like the company from here. I just need the money. And, I believe I will have more for the long term.
I did take 1/3 off the table, as advised — but what about the other 2/3?
What do you mean by “some”? Perhaps I misunderstand.
Thanks
Michael
Editor: I don’t know where you got 1/3 from. The BLOGS on 4/2 and 4/10 suggested a partial or full sale, and clearly not a buy. I said specifically not to buy. If you chose to sell only 1/3, that was your choice. Looking back, it would have been nice to sell it all, and it has fallen a little harder than I expected. However, the advice was very clear. Go back and read it. Remember “Trading 101- what do we do when stocks are trading on big, spiky rises?- We sell if anything”. Go back and read.
I took your advice and sold all 200000 shares that i owned for a net of a little over 24,000. I am now buying back at a avg. of about 0.14..
great work…….
Editor: Well done. I’ve read some postings from folks who just didn’t get it, and are saying I told them to buy. I’m glad you are literate. What was your cost basis?
Re: Net loss widens
Can you explain the news item that their net loss was reported to be widened from the previous year. The terminology appears to be misleading. Does this mean that they are incurring more costs due to increased activity in the short run or that the company is making less money than last year, or they are facing a net loss overall in value. With their stock doing so good I don’t get what net loss means here.
Thanks
Shabber
Editor: Their loss was a little wider thanks to the non-cash costs of raising money, not the company’s operations. The company is headed in the right direction as far as sales and gross profits go, but I’d like to see considerable acceleration from here.
Will the ‘Hawk’ touch ground again? This move today was quite impressive.
Editor: Nice move yesterday- will do some commentary. The company is on a nice growth path just as I have been suggesting.