I just love the NIHK chart. Once again, the 61.8% retracement proves to be the low risk entry point for a stock.
If you are a follower, you probably noticed NIHK announced it had taken over $300k in orders in Q1. This doesn’t mean they will deliver $300k in sales, but it does mean they are continuing to grow at a healthy pace. As I have been saying, NIHK is likely to double in size in 2007 without any mega orders, and start the process of evolving to a recurring revenue business model.
On the news, NIHK, which made a big run, fell back, and was then a little oversold, bounced nicely.
Here is the chart:
As you can see, the stock made a beautiful surge, and then fell back to a high low. It did trade a little below it’s perfect 61.8- but close enough.
Note the nice bounce yesterday as the news restored everyone’s faith.
Love the way this one is trading. Continue accumulating on dips for a shot at $.25 later this year. They have a few home run potentials, but easy to hang on to with the numbers improving on the singles.
Comments and questions are welcome.
Have had a hard time getting on the Journal”s email list. Hope it will work today.
Would appreciate an update on BLTH in light of Southland”s disappointing earnings and BLTH owning a 25% share in the company when and if it becomes a free-trading STK. Would you be a buyer, seller or holder at the 0.30 level
Editor: There is nothing to do about BYTH- buy it, sell it, hold it- your call it doesn’t matter. From the very first day I covered BYTH, it was all about getting the dividend in Southland. If you were a shareholder in January, you’ll be getting your shares, and keeping your fingers crossed Southland opens for trading on a senior exchange. At this point, it’s all about refinancing the debt, and getting rid of the back IRS debt and GE Capital. IF that happens, BYTH is a buy. If it doesn’t, it’s going to be a mess in my opinion. For now, it’s either a sell or a hold- your choice. For me, I’m just hoping for Southland to get fixed and open at a nice premium.
Before the release of last years results I was reluctant to sell because I thought they would have been impressive enough to push it up past .25. Clearly this backfired and although I didn’t get to sell I am still in at a much lower price than where it is at now. What would it take for this thing to really take off, and do you think that it has sustained itself in the low teens range almost like it did when the stock was back and forth between .07-.09? Also, any word on any of the “big deals” we heard about early on? Thanks for the continued coverage, keep up the great work!
Editor: Here’s what it would take- they have a foot in the door with a number of large and exciting situations. Suppose Verizon decided to put their technology on cell towers all over the country?- or suppose other auto manufacturers and DaimlerChrysler decided to retrofit all their factories to save energy? Or, suppose El Paso electric gave them a $5 million order to install and manage (recurring revenues) their power switchers on a a few hundred thousand homes and businesses? It would be that kind of event that would push the stock up into those kinds of levels. Last year at this time, there were a couple of opportunities of that kind. This year, there are 6 to 10. If one comes through, then you will get to your price.
Did I miss something? Isn’t a reorder from Daimler great news for Nighthawk? Why isn’t the stock just exploding right now. Maybe no one saw the news or do you think Nighthawk has too large a supply of stock for sale?
Editor: The stock could be wrestling with some supply right now. Doesn’t have much to do with the long term picture. The stock already exploded once this year, so it could take some time for the next explosion.
I just bought some NIHK this morning. Do you think we will see more action on the upside? It seems like it’s run out of steam for now.
Editor: Seems like it might be wrestling with a bit of supply now. Will do a new BLOG on it this am.
What are you seeing for NIHK’s short term future? It it time to buy or sell thanks. Also whats going on with EFSF?
Editor: Will publish a BLOG on that this AM. I can tell you this- it was time to sell at $.18 as I stated sometime ago. EFSF- moving forward with Cinnergen at this time.
Did you get side tracked on the new blog or did you decide to wait for another opening?
Editor: just busy- will get to it this week.
love your newsletter; am waiting for your comments on NIHK (after 5/15 by Max) or did you publish that AM Blog? Your info is to the point yet ample enough to gain understanding of the stocks discussed. Thank you!
Editor: Will get to some new comments on NIHK this week. Have been busy looking at some new ideas. Tell all your friends to sign up for the OTC Journal.
Editor: Will publish a BLOG on that this AM. I can tell you this- it was time to sell at $.18 as I stated sometime ago. EFSF- moving forward with Cinnergen at this time.
ok so you are 3 days late with your blog are you ok?Did they tie you up and take your computer away? Give us your thoughts on NIHK and EFSF thanks.
Editor: Will get to it.
NIHK is starting to get hit. Are you selling your shares down here under .10 or are you buying? TIA.I think its time to load up down here. what are your thoughts
Editor: Getting very close. I am not a buyer as I own plenty of it for the long term, but it is getting close to a price where it could be good for just a trade.
Your Spring Cleaning newsletter indicated 2.5 million this year without any of the big deals coming through. How did you get to 2.5? Their current rate indicates 1 – 1.5.
Editor: I have done extensive interivews with the CEO regarding their business flow this year. If you look at the percentage increase in Q1, and figure the same percentage increases throughout the year, you can see it.
when I figure the same % increase (50%) for each quarter vs. prior year quarter I get 1.35 Million. Can you elaborate a little more in your next blog? Thanks.
Editor: You have to figure in the order filled that wasn’t filled in Q1 as they were waiting for parts. They would have delivered closer to $400k, and had their biggest Q1 order flow in their history.
Pretty big miss on the 2nd Qtr according to your projection for 2.5 million without any big orders. What are your thoughts now? Is this dead money for another year or do we hope for some of the “big deals” to save the year?
Editor: I’m not sure what you mean by a big miss? The company’s numbers are accelerating nicely, and last year a good percentage of their revenues came in the latter half of the year- Will have to look at the trailing numbers and pencil it all out, but I won’t have time to do it until later in the week. Also- I believe I modified the forecast to $2 million to $2.5 million with no big deals. There are a couple of possibilities that could take us closer to $6 million. As they keep growing, the downside becomes less ominous.