Well, SPKL is powering higher today on pretty big volume. And, just like the last BLOG I posted on this stock, I would advise you not to be a buyer. I felt the stock was fairly valued at around $1, but the concept has clearly hit a hot button with investors, and the price performance of the stock has outstripped my expectations.
If anything, on today’s high volume, I would suggest taking some partial profits if you were in when I first featured the company at $.80 last month.
You can use SPKL as a great opportunity to “trade around a position”. This means you have a core position you hold for the long term, but take a certain amount of your position to sell on surges, and buy back on pullbacks.:
Here’s the chart, with an idea of where I would buy it on a pullback.
It’s pretty clear that at this point in time, we are not going to get a 61.8% retracement in this stock. It is more likely we will see a 38.2% retracement, just as it did last week. I was pretty short lived.
The 38.2% retracement would take us to about the $1.10 level, which is where I believe the stock could pull back, and probably should pull back to.
In summary- not a buy- a sell, partial sell, or hold. Look for a technical pullback to $1.10 to jump back in.
Comments and questions are welcome.
Anonymous here, yes, there is the 144 rumor mill starting up already. I can’t find anything on it though. Is there a 144 filing on spkl that you know of?
Editor: I’m sure there are a few small one. I filed to sell about 300k shares under rule 144 myself. I haven’t sold them all, but at this price I am quite certain there will be some sellers.
I agree that when SPKL had a tremendous gain it had a fairly big pullback which cost some buyers from cashing in. I bought the stock at .98 and I plan to sell and buy when it has this pull back.
Editor: You might want to consider doing partial buys and sells, and keeping a core position for the long term. However, as I stated in my BLOG, now would be a good time to take some profits.
Could you comment on the dynamic between float and outstanding shares and how those two numbers move closer to one another over time? Specifically, how much larger, reasonably, will the float (near term/few months) get due to insiders moving shares from outstanding to float? thx.
Editor: Good question. There are certainly some shares that could appear from 144 filings. I personally filed to sell over 300k shares through 144 that I got from investing in 2005. I haven’t sold them all by any stretch, but I’ve sold some. There are 45 million. 12.2 million were the original public float, leaving 32.8. Of those, close to 20 million are owned by the two founders and the CEO, taking the number down to 12.8. Of that 12.8, a certain percentage are owned by officers and directors who were all early stage investors. The largest outside block is owned by one super wealthy guy in Vegas- 4 million shares. He could possibly file to sell some, but no more than 450k in a 3 month period. Therefore, I would guess somewhere in the range of 6 million would be the possible amount that could be for sale. Some folks will probably choose to lock in some profits, but they can all sell very little to get their principle back out.
great advice hope the trend continues
Editor: I would buy it at $1.10.
I just wanted you to know about this lie:
“10/15/2007 Kang Arthur
Other –/– Planned Sale — $100,000 205,560 — –
09/17/2007 Isen Lawrence
Other –/– Planned Sale — $160,000 318,001″
Yes, this person is claiming you are about to sell some BILLIONS worth.
I want to go on record, right now, be saying you have already told us about your 300k 144 stock. Thank you for your high degree of integrity. This stock is clean. While there will always be unethical people trying to discredit you and the OTC JOURNAL, I just wanted people who know me to know where I stand on this type of behavior.
Thanks for your hard, honest work and for making us money.
Lewis
Editor: Actually, Kang didn’t need to file under Rule 144. His shares were registered in the prospectus. I don’t know why that appears.
a pullback to 1.10 seems unlikely…
Editor: You might very well be right. If the stock extends out for a period of time in this $1.40 range, I will raise my suggested entry level. It doesn’t want to give ground at this point. I am a bit surprised.
It seems the market makers got burned the last time the stock broke out and so they are not shorting on low volume. Your views?
Editor: It would appear there could have been some sort of short squeeze in this one. Wouldn’t surprise me to see them stay flat. However, I still believe this stock is going to have a correction in here sometime soon. I also believe it will be much higher in a year.
wow what do you make of this
Editor: Read the current blog- a sell in here. buy it back later.
Up $0.24 today!! Surge is incredible. Any comments on how it has so overshot expectations?
Paul
Editor: Read the next BLOG.
holy smokes, still holding strong from .77.. this could be 3 bucks why years end
Editor: Overdue for a correction. You will have another shot.
Sir, we are getting pickled to death.
I don’t know if I can take all this excitement. Thoughts on the exit? Entrance? Thx.
Editor: Exit for now, entrance later.