NIHK is a fan favorite, and I know many of you have been waiting for an update, just itching to pull the trigger and reload after trading out at twice today’s price.
One thing I have learned over the years- The wonderful surge we had in NIHK comes along once or twice a year when technical conditions fall into place perfectly.
You always think the stock is ready to do it again right away- but guess what- it’s not going to. It’s going to take some time for forces to build up.
Another thing I’ve learned- when stocks run up, they run up higher than you ever expected. I never thought we’d see a $.24 print in this stock so soon. The stock was going up on momentum rather than merit, which is a good time to sell.
On the flip side, stocks generally go lower than you thought possible on a pullback, and that’s what I have been waiting for with NIHK. Looking to see where the bottom would be.
Lately there have been two kinds of sellers- some shares have been hitting the market from financiers- this will go on for some time as the company is not yet profitable and still needs to raise capital. The other kind of seller has been those who bought the stock on its way up in April, and is selling because the stock is down and not moving right now. If you have been following my counsel on this one, you should have been a seller when those goobers were buying at the top, and they are playing right into your hands- allowing you to accumulate while its cheap and no one wants it. It’s the best way to accumulate a microcap.
Now that I have watched NIHK for a few weeks, I believe it doesn’t want to trade much, if any, below $.10. Therefore, I believe it is time to jump back in and accumulate. Don’t do so if you think the stock is going back to $.24 tomorrow. It would take some big news for that to happen.
Here’s this morning’s chart, along with a couple of things I like about it:
The stock finally drifted back down to the $.10 level, traded a touch below, and bounced right back up. That’s the bottom I was looking for.
In the meantime, the daily volume has dried up considerably, suggesting those who bought too high have already thrown in the towel if they were going to, and their loss is your opportunity.
Today, pre open, NIHK announced another utility order. Slowly but surely their utility network is expanding, and the re orders are coming in on a more consistent basis, and in larger quantities. Some of these utilities are installing, then moving on to the next batch of installations. This is becoming almost like a recurring revenue model.
Recently, Mercedes Benz reordered after completing the first installation- it’s not really big, but it’s good sign their product can be adopted in other arenas.
There will be more fundamental information down the road. I still believe the company can hit the $2 to $2.5 million level this year without any really big deals, which would be at least a double over 2006. That’s why there isn’t a huge amount of risk in the $.10 range.
The upside and the next big run: when they deliver a really big deal, of which there are about 10 under consideration.
I like our chances, I just can’t say when. No need to pay more than $.11 at this point in time.
Comments and questions are welcome.
This stock is way oversold. I would expect it to have a nice run very soon. JMO
Editor: I don’t know how soon, but there are more runs left in this one.
The reason why I think it’s way oversold. It’s well below the 61.8% retracement level. Which usually indicates a reversal.
Editor: Yes, this one is entitled to perk up pretty soon.
what should i do wiyh the plant
Editor: See today’s BLOG on this issue
Every year for 5 years NIHK has fallen in the early Summer and gained in the Fall. Why would this year be any different?
Editor: You have now become a technician- you are recognizing patterns that repeat themselves. NIHK wants to be accumulated between $.10 and $.11 right now for another big move, but there is no hurry to buy it when it is surging.
Nice pop today. You called this one right. This is the way the market should react to good news (unlike TTGL). I noticed that the closing price would have been above .130 if it were not for a large block sell towards the very end of trading
Editor: Nice to be right about one after a couple of months of getting beat up. In the case of NIHK, I would keep accumulating in the $.10 to $.11 range, getting ready for the next big breakout.
Does any one know the unit price for a CEO700?
Editor: I believe about $200 to $300.
well i sold some efsf and bought some nihk @ .107!! so right now im in the position of about 70% efsf and 30% nihk!! i hope this was a smart move and hope night hawk keeps getting seconds orders!!
Editor: Well, now you have two chances for better returns. Of course, EFSF will probably take off now- that’s the unwritten rule in investing. Sell- they go up, buy- they go down.
is there any toxic financing lurking about?
thanks in advance
dave
Editor: No doubt the company is still raising money. However, not too terribly toxic if they continue to use the same financier. It won’t prevent the stock from going up somewhat reasonably in my opinion.
well we finally broke down into the less than 0.10 range. I do believe a run again is inevitable and hopefully next time it will be one that rises and doesn’t fall. Atleast it is doing much better this time of year than last. What’s your call at this price? I don’t see it going much lower than .08. Also, don’t their financials worry you a bit? Thanks, you’re always a big help.
Editor: Buy.
dear editor, I just picked up 45K shares of NIHK in three seperate transactions at .945, .95, and .102, it cost me almost $100. do you know if there are any online brokers that do not charge high fees for stocks that are under $1, and still make timely executions? scottrade is killing me with fees on those!
Thanks
Editor: I did a survey on this a few years ago, and a lot of the members really like http://www.scottrade.com. Try them out. $100 seems absurd to me. Should have been no more than $30.
More news today for NIHK and the stock is down? What does it take for this to rise again? I am thinking of accumulating more at these levels. But it just seems to sit there forever.
Editor: Rob- you need to look at the big picture. Look at the stock over the last two years. Every summer the stock has gotten cheap. Every winter the stock has made a big run. No reason the pattern can’t repeat itself again.
Great news the other day. Seems like a good time to buy. I’m going to wait until nihk actually shows the numbers for 10-QSB before buying my last bulk for the year. It seems everytime they show the physical numbers, those losses scare off investors and we see a huge drop. You think it will still drop in August when they actually file or will the largest quarter in 4 years prevent that?
Editor: Good move to buy over the summer- Could have made the lows already, but you never know. However, if you accumulate over the summer and are willing to hold a few months, you are likely to get another one of those meteoric moves.
low today of $.02? what causes this, did someone wrongly enter a limit order?
this one is headed for the sky soon!
many thanks,
dave
Editor: Just some sort of mistaken report on the tape. There were no trades below $.097.
What would be a great buying price?
Editor: I believe $.09 to $.10 is a great level to accumulate. It probably won’t be good for a short term trade, but not much risk at $.10 stocks go with the way they are growing.
What is your current recommendation on NIHK given the lastes news? Still buy between .10 and .11 with a target of .13? Also, if this order flow continues, what do you expect for profits (when).
Editor: I like $.09 to $.10, and I’m sure they won’t be profitable in ’07. Hopeful for ’08 depending on how the back half of the year goes.
We got another order today. How can we gauge the size of the order? What will it take to get the stock to react upward in terms of information released by the company? Thanks.
Editor: Hard to say- the forces that built up to make the previous run to $.24 took months to develop. It’s just a slow process going on behind the scenes. The way the company is going, probably in the Fall sometime.
I noticed you NIHK blog is not updated and some newer archive posts have not been transferred to the blog for comments.
Anyway, what is your opinion of the order flow? Is this unusually high or can we expect it to continue at this pace for a time? thx.
Editor: Business will continue to improve for some time, albeit slowly. As I have been saying, with nothing big they will double 2006. However, keep your fingers crossed for a big deal to come their way.
In your opinion, is the J-E-L-L-O (meaning NIHK) starting to firm?
Editor: Technically, it looks like August could be a pretty good month for the stock. It looks like it has rinsed and washed pretty successfully.
Is there any toxic financing involved with nihk? Is there any reason they should issue more stock? Thanks.
Editor: Yes, NIHK has been engaging in some moderately toxic financings, which is the reason the stock doesn’t trade well sometimes. However, they do run out of stock from time to time, and that could be when the stock runs up. It seems like we are nearing another point like that.
Todays news is great for this stock which continues to set records. As in previous notes they hit many singles but today is a grand slam!
Adding to my position.
Scott
Editor: I would characterize it more as a double or triple, but everything is positive about this one.
Who provided the moderately toxic financing and how many shares do they have? Thx.
Editor: Dutchess Capital- and I don’t know exactly. However, based on some high volume days, we have to be close to the end of their supply.
I don’t understand. Why is it that NIHK is 0.1075 and EFSF is 0.31? NIHK seems like it has a lot going for it. What gives?
Editor: There are a couple of reasons-one big one- NIHK has debt. Probably the biggest one- EFSF has products with much greater potential than NIHK’s remote disconnect technology. PurEffect, Cinnergen, and OraPhtye all have $100 million plus upside. NIHK has a fairly narrow “niche” device that probably has upside no greater than about $25 million in annual sales.
Is it a good idea to sell nihk? Then buy efsf?
Editor: I like them both for higher levels this year, and I can’t say which one will do better sooner. I will say this. If you sell NIHK to buy EFSF, then NIHK will run up. If you sit pat, EFSF will run up. It’s the unwritten rule of investing.
How much should one pay for NIHK stock based on earnings? You had said no more than .11 earlier. I am a trader. Thank you.
Editor: If you are strictly a trader, you have to buy it cheap if you want to protect yourself. Therefore, I would say buying near the $.10 range would be ideal as there seems to be great support for the stock at that level. If the stock takes off, you just missed it. Find another trade.
What is the current I&O for NIHK? I see they issued another 11 million this quarter to Dutchess. thx.
Editor: About 120 million.
I have experienced the unwritten rule of investing.
To many times. LOL Good news for NIHK this morning and the stock is being sold off? I assume it’s because of the Dutchess financing?
Editor: I just think it’s an over all market situation. Just no appetite for risk out there right until the liquidity crises gets out of the market cross hairs, and things start up again. The market makers understand this.
Just a comment…Two years ago this went from .03 to .16 for about 5x. Last year we had .03 to .24 for about 8x. NIHK survived the summer very well around .10. If the pattern of multiplication continues this thing would, in theory, go above $1. As much as we all would love to see that the odds of it actually happening are very unlikely. I see a range of .30-.50 for the winter/spring. Hopefully worst case is just a repeat of last year.
Editor: That’s what I have been saying. When the stock takes off again, we are far better positioned than we were the last two times it happened. Also- the company is doing far better as the numbers show.
It is on RegSHO.com list 08/17/2007 through 08/20/2007 2 market day. This is the first time NIHK is on this list and price changed from 0.11+ to 0.096. What does it mean to stock holders? In past it was moving up with every good news now it moves little and come back. Is there anything you know off like CPNE?
Editor: I don’t believe it is meaningful. Probably just the financier experiencing delays getting free trading shares back from the transfer agent. We’ll have another great day with this one somewhere down the road.
So the last time you told me to get in a .10, as a trader, and the stock was at .11, I thought there was no way. Here I am, all over it. If it goes down 7%, I’m out. No worries. Ok, since I have not been following this one as long, what is the liklihood of them NOT having to issue another share?
Editor: the odds of them not issuing another share is zero. I don’t know what your trading window is, but when people ask me what level a trader should buy at, I pick what I view as pretty close to the support level. The key being if it goes back there, and doesn’t take off, you can sell with no or minimal damage and move on to your next trade. I don’t believe stocks like this make good positions for very short term trades- meaning hours or days. Very tough to call. I would rather trade options on the QQQQs than a stock like this for real trades. Now, if you are a swing trader- prepared to hold for several days to several months, these kind of stocks can work.
The stock doesn’t seem to be responding to new sales. Do you think this has turned into a case of a good company but a bad stock? Do we bail out or stay?
Editor: Firstly, they haven’t announced anything major lately- just small individual sales, but there’s a one word answer to your question- August- It’s the quietest month of the year. If you look back at most of the 2006 ideas, August was the time to buy, not sell, if you had a few month window in time.
What are the chances of seeing $.15 by year’s end? thx.
Editor: At some point, it will break out. Why shouldn’t it. It’s just people’s expectations have too short of a fuse. It seems to make a big run about every nine months. After March, people want it to happen tomorrow. The history just doesn’t support that.
I think at this point all the good news is already priced in the stock. If it gets to the point when they are free from Dutchess the stock will do a lot better. They just have to much debt and they have to keep diluting.
Editor: I don’t agree that all the good news is priced in. I just believe both the company and the stock are way better off this year at this time then they were last year. There will be another run to come.
In general, do you know when the fiscal year runs for public utilities?
Editor: no, I don’t. I do know lots of governmental types of entities have their fiscal year end at the end of September.
I’ve accumulated about 30K shares of this stock around .10 Any chance of a positive move in the near future or should I jump back on the AAPL trail?
Editor: Depends on what kind of investor you are. If you are just a trader, tough to say which one is going to go up first. If I just wanted to trade, I would rather try to trade AAPL options than NIHK. If I had some money to accumulate over some time, it could go either way. There’s not much of a comparison between the two.
Stockcharts indicates that Accumulation and OBV are at or near 3-yer highs, MFI positive, etc., yet NIHK languishes. Do you expect a breakout soon, based on such TA? Do you expect any signficant news/contracts w/i next months?
Editor: I don’t quite get why everyone is so impatient for a repeat of the great spring breakout. Historically, it has happened with this stock once a year. In answer to your question- highly likely between now and the end of February- as long as you’re thinking months not days, I believe you will see it. It could be tomorrow, or it could take a bit longer. I have no idea.
Based on your previous comment that we may have up to a 6 month horizon for the next rise, we may see a sell off among those who follow OTC Journal. Do you see a new entry point if that happens? Can it go below .08 or .07?
Editor:Let’s be clear- could be six months, could be tomorrow. I just don’t know. I only know the company is growing and landing bigger orders than it ever has in the past, and it has a history of making a big run once or twice a year. Can it go lower?- of course. Any stock that is above zero could go lower. I’m not sure. I just know I like your chances from this level.
I think at this point in the market. The small micro stocks aren’t going up at all. If anything most of them are going down. Even on good news the stocks can’t sustain an uptrend. I am not sure why?
Editor: I believe it is seasonal. I’ve seen a couple start to behave well, but only a few. The buyers will start emerging slowly this month, and buying will pick up as we get through September and into October if history repeats itself.
What’s with the weird spread today?
bid 0.03 ask 0.29
Editor: Don’t know where you got that – you must be looking at pre open or post close quotes, or corrupted data.
“An operator can now manage the whole network of remote disconnects on a point and click basis. Here’s the beauty for NIHK- this is a subscription based service. This is a “recurring revenue” model. As more devices are installed, more utilities should adopt the management tools, and NIHK starts generating recurring monthly subscription revenues. I love it.
Look for Utility WebConnect adoption to be the catalyst for the next NIHK surge. I don’t know when it’s coming, but I suspect it is.
Why will the utilities accept a subscription service? Does it really save them money? Will they actually lay anyone off? I doubt it. Likely the time will be absorbed into other activities. Theoretically, at some time, a hire will be avoided. Maybe I’m missing something here but I’m not sure the utilities will be as excited as you indicate. jmho.
Paul
Editor: Labor saving technology. Currently, the remote disconnects are handled by pager technology, and on a one by one basis. There is no management system. The internet interface allows the operator to see every remote disconnect device, the status of same, and to change the status. Right now someone has to tell someone and someone has to keep a record somewhere.
I would have to guess that this stock is being manipulated. Under 0.09 this morning. Give me a break. I’m not sure if the mm is accumulating shares at a lower price? What’s your take on this?
Editor: Not too concerned- a couple big events, and the stock will trade better.
What would be a big event to you? All I have seen is this stock go down since I bought it.
Editor: Larger orders with bigger names. This stock has always done well from here to January. This year could be different, but that’s the way it has been in the past.
I think this is a stock that if you sell it. It will run. Paranoia on my part?
Editor: Perhaps just a little impatient. As you know, there is an unwritten rule in investing. Buy, they go down- sell, they go up. It’s just a law of the universe we all have to learn to live with.
I am really starting to believe that this will bottom out to around 0.065. This is what it did last time. Then it had a great run. As you stated about being impatient. You are right. I’m probably not the only one that is. I think the mms are trying to wear investors down so they will sell. I might be way off on this. eom
Editor: Probably a good observation.
More good news today. But down again tomorrow!
LOL
Editor: Company has a lot of great stuff going on. Just a question of when it busts out again.
It really looks like to me the a large percentage of micro stocks just won’t advance in price. They just seem to be in a holding pattern. Even on good news with a most of these stocks. The pps never really moves higher. Just my opinion….
Editor: It’s typical for people to simply start getting bored when stocks don’t move much for a while. If you are just a trader, sell it. There are other better “trades” right now. If you are a little longer term, then watch the fundamentals and wait for a technical break out. If the fundamentals improve, it will happen sooner or later.