New Century: In The Eye of the Hurricane

I haven’t published an update on NCNC since the initial presentation back on June 13th. The company hasn’t been in a position to announce some of the events that are happening behind the scenes.

However, I did have a chance to speak with CEO David Duquette today at length, and based on our conversation I believe this is one stock that could really take off later this year.

If you check back and read the original presentation, you will note one of their key growth drivers is the newly developing demand for wind turbines. Duquette reports the demand for machines to manufacture the components for wind turbines is skyrocketing. He has proposals going out nearly every day, and expects to have a number of new announceable contracts throughout the month of August. GE could be producing as many as 50 new wind turbines weekly by year’s end.

On the Boeing Dreamliner front, their joint venture is set up, and they will be setting up a machine to work on the 12 ft engine rings in very short order. Order flow is expected to start in August, and gain momentum for the forseeable future.

Q2 numbers are due out by Mid August, and I am expecting another quarter of growth in both top and bottom line.

NCNC does have one big challenge- they are having difficulty with the truck lines getting parts in and shipments out. They are also having challenges with suppliers- getting components they need which are backordered.

We agreed it was kind of a high class problem to have. He’s just got too much business, and the market will catch on sooner or later.

Here’s the current chart:

ncnc1.gif

The stock has come down $.20 since the high of $.80 it made just after I started covering the company.

The chart you are looking at is a pretty typical summer trading pattern. The stock is drifting down on very light volume. It could trade all the way down to $.50 in my view before it becomes a screaming buy.

The company is in the proverbial eye of the hurricane right now. High winds are swirling all around, but there is a calm period before massive new order flow hits. Look for continued significant growth on both the top and bottom lines.

Comments and questions are welcome.

8 thoughts on “New Century: In The Eye of the Hurricane

  1. have they already done business with GE? or are they speculating that they might be in the near future?

    thanks, this is the time to pick up NCNC, you can just feel it!

    Editor: No, they haven’t done business directly with GE. They will be providing product to GE suppliers for GE parts. I expect some major new order flow immediately post Labor Day (everyone’s on vacation now), and order flow for engine parts on the Dreamliner will flow after that. September should be a great news flow month for this company, and they should hit $11 or $12 million this year. 

  2. seems like an easy double or triple, given the current float!?

    Editor: When it gets momentum- yes- give me some new contracts in the wind mills- follow it up with some of the first orders for the 787- company is making money every quarter- pretty low risk microcap if you ask me. Just a question of time.

  3. looking for an entry point, do you think this one will move any lower? volume/price seem to be increasing slightly.
    dave

    Editor: My expectations are things will be picking up with this one from here. Good idea to be looking at a sleeper.

  4. ouch, glad i didn’t buy too much at .55, any word on new developments?

    Editor: A bunch coming- late this month or early next if things come through. However, investors are clearly getting bored. 

  5. surely i couldn’t be the only person that cares about new century! seems i’m the only one commenting… i’m puzzled, when i go to newcenturyinc.com they haven’t updated the news since sept. 1, 2005. i thought USEI was a little behind on updating their site. new century has them beat by a long shot!!

    Editor: I have been complaining to the CEO about this, and he claims he has a number of major events in the pipeline. Wind mill related. I am still keeping him for the time being. 

  6. What is your view on NCNC now? There were supposed to be announcements in August. Still nothing. They talked a good game this summer, but do you think they will back it up? $0.36 sounds like a great buy…or it could be a waste of money. Any thoughts?

    Editor: I have hammered the CEO on this issue twice in the last month. He keeps telling me he is going to deliver major news on wind mill related contracts any time now. In the interim, they are filling back orders. He claims Q3 will be a little off, and Q4 will be huge. I am only giving him a few more weeks. If he doesn’t deliver, I am going to drop this one. Always difficult, because you never know when they are going to break through. He also had the trailing sales to be believable. 

  7. From the June announcement:

    “W K Machine is well positioned to handle the potential order backlog created by the approximately 1,100 planes which have been ordered by the major airlines………….. ”

    ” David Duquette, President and CEO of New Century, commented, “We are excited by the opportunity to work with W K on this project. We recognized the potential opportunity in the market to produce the large components being developed for use by the aircraft engine manufactures.”

    All I see is talk about potential. I don’t see anything about contracts and with the pushing out of the 787 delivery dates by six months, I’d say this company is going to languish. The trick will be to buy in when things change. I don’t think the 4th quarter is going to be any blockbuster. I think it, and the 3rd and 1st qtrs are going to be big disappointments. Looking for very low prices, maybe even single digits unless their news in a week or so is better and a surprise.

    Paul

    Editor: I have been on the phone with the ceo several times this month expressing my disgust. He claims they are nano seconds away from huge windmill related orders, 787 to follow. We’ll see. 

  8. What the heck happened today? Seems like a massive sell-off on news that we don’t have access to. Do you know what happened? What is the outlook for this stock? Thanks

    Editor: There is nothing happening. Despite promises to deliver all kinds of new business back in June, this company has done absolutely nothing to justify its existence. Was hoping we would get a turn in the right direction, but so far just a disaster. There’s no getting around it.