Larry’s Look at Today’s Market: 7/16- 12:50 Pacific
July 16, 2008 @ 1:18 pm

Oil, oil, oil, oil. Huge bank rally today along with the first decent up day in the larger markets in the last month. The S&P 500 has dropped 220 points and the DOW has dropped 2,000 points since we’ve had a decent up day like this.
One decent day in the larger market does not make for a trend, and I am seeing no signs of a bottom in the micros except perhaps on the psychological side.
I’ve been reading some great hints the bottom could be at hand in some of the micros I am following. Yes, they have all been decimated this summer- with the exception of recent edition PLTG which is in the energy space.
Here’s some commentary I have been reading of late: EFSF is going out of business. Horse hockey. SPKL has closed 10 stores- simply false. In fact, most of the stores are doing great. Based on 22 years in this market, I can tell you these are the kinds of rumors that make for good market bottoms. Near at hand. Watching SPKL come apart has been particularly painful for me, but I made the decision to just hang in there and tough it out.
Oil down $8 in the last two days along with great earnings out of Wells Fargo today really put a bid under the market. It the first decent up day in a month.
Here’s the bad news- Oil has corrected nicely, but hasn’t broken it’s uptrend. Still intact. We need a close below $130 before it’s time to really believe, and it’s not here yet.
At any rate, I am going to keep watching, but I have kind of abandoned the idea of going short into earnings releases. Most of the stocks I am watching are going up into the earnings releases, suggesting they were so blown out there was no where to go even on misses. In addition, most analysts have the projected numbers ratcheted down so low companies can beat the estimates pretty easily.
I recognize this strategy is not working. Perhaps I should simply flip it over, and look at going long. Different markets call for different strategies.
Let’s hope today’s rally continues.
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If oil keeps going down will it be a bad time to own PLTG?
Editor: At these prices, I don’t see it as a risk factor. You have to remember, whether oil is $140 or $100, this company is going to be delivering new revenues it has never delivered, not seeing a retraction of ongoing revenues. Their wells will be very profitable even at much lower oil prices, and they are coming from nothing. I expect they will have about 20 wells generating revenues by year’s end, up from zero last year.
Comment by cyberjo — 7/17/2008 @ 6:50 pm