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Daily Blog

Larry’s Look at Today’s Market: 7/10- 1:37 Pacific

By OTCJournal Editor
July 10, 2008 @ 1:58 pm

Another rodeo ride in the markets today. This is about as volatile a market as I can ever remember. I need Dramamine.

The rumored insolvency of FreddiMac and Fanny Mae had the market all riled up today, along with the $5 rise in oil prices.

Here’s a chart that is mind boggling:


This is a chart of the S&P 500- The faint yellow line is the 10 day moving average. The S&P has now spent 24 consecutive trading days below the 10 day moving average. Can you guess when this last happened? February of 1984. Over 28 years ago. This is a pretty extraordinary event.

I can’t help thinking the market is long overdue for some sort of move to the upside. The rhetoric is so negative you could cut it with a chain saw. This is the kind of mentality that makes for a great market bottom.

I can’t say when the turn will be. However, the market made a gallant attempt to come back towards the end of the day.

I reloaded on my RIMM options today just before the close. I picked up 20 of the 110 August Calls at $11.10 - that about a $22k investment. When the stock closed about one half hour later, I was in the money about $1100.

Since the market staged a reasonable comeback at the end of the day today, we could have a decent day tomorrow.

There could be a pretty furious rally before the end of the year as the short interest in many stocks is by far the highest in history, and that is the rocket fuel to drive stocks higher. It just needs to be ignited.

Nothing happened of any interest in microcap land today. Hopefully, next week will be a big more exciting.

Comments and questions are welcome.

1 Comment

  1. It looks like the vix is trying to make a run above 30, this would be VERY bullish.

    Editor: I believe you are absolutely right. The market is really looking for a big giant woosh where everyone throws in the towel and blows out every single share of stock they are going to sell. A spike into the 35 range for a day would be buyers into stocks, and probably be a first step towards getting on with business. I think we’re getting close. 

    Comment by Bret — 7/14/2008 @ 11:10 am

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