Larry’s Look at Today’s Market: 6/17- CREE Stars Today: 3:25 Pacific
June 17, 2008 @ 4:15 pm

There were two highlights from today’s trading action in the markets- first- the market tried to roll over and sell off after I suggested getting a little shorter on the last three day run up.
Secondly, for some inexplicable reason, CREE made a half way decent move today on moderately improving volume.

As you can see from today’s price bar, CREE traded to $27 before dropping back a bit. The last time I suggested getting aggressive with this stock was when it gapped down big on the Q1 earnings disappointment at the end of April at about $25.
CREE tends to trade very well when there’s a lot of media talk about the importance of evolving from incandescent bulbs to the new generation of chip driven LED bulbs. They last ten times as long and use 1/10th the power.
When the company has to deliver on numbers, it seems to disappoint Wall Street every time in a fairly big way.
In the early going I was convinced this stock would head to $50. I have withdrawn that opinion. They keep falling short on numbers, which means they don’t have the horses to get it done.
I don’t know why the stock traded up today. However, I believe it wants to fill the April gap and head back up towards $30. When (and if) it does, I am going to sell the stock and wait for another opportunity when it gets clobbered. Perhaps there is some international media on LED bulbs driving the stock right now. I’ll check the news feeds in the morning.
Aside from CREE, the market appeared to want to roll over tomorrow. We’ll see about the headline driven news and subsequent market move in the morning.
Aside from those two stories, it’s all quiet in microcap land, with no major change in the last day.
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Did you check out Nightly Business Report’s two segment presentation this week on the LED lighting business? No mention of CREE, unfortunately, but they did highlight a Japanese company called Nachia, I think that is making applications. Know anything about that company?
Editor: I didn’t see that, but certainly CREE has been a mess of late. I was hoping it would drop down into the $15 range pre earnings (tomorrow) so I could buy some. Still like it long term, I don’t like the way it is trading. If the stock trades up after Tuesday’s earning, I will probably sell and be done with it. They should be able to make their $.09 number, as analyst has set the bar pretty darn low.
Comment by Rick — 8/9/2008 @ 9:40 am