I have great news for all you HDY fans who want the stock to rip up the charts. There’s an old adage in the market- as soon as you buy it goes down, and soon as you sell it goes up.
I have decided to take out an insurance policy on my HDY holdings. Until today, I had 20000 shares at an average cost of about $1.75. I started liquidating half today at $3. I think I sold about 8500, and plan to sell the remaining 1500 tomorrow.
The surest way to make a stock go up is to sell it. Therefore, the stock should make some kind of great move in the near term if the unwritten rule remains in force.
Call it a feeling if nothing else- I simply believe the company is still a ways off the signing a new deal with the Guinea Govt. I also believe the longer it takes, the lower the stock will drift down.
In addition, it would appear from the SEC filings that the company is closing in on an effective registration statement from their 2005 financing. Once effective, there could be an excess supply of stock hitting the market. In this case, the fund controlling the shares has a reputation for friendliness to the trading side, so it is unlikely there will be any abrupt disruption. Nevertheless, as steady supply could prevent this stock from moving up as easily as it has in the past.
Here’s today’s chart showing an inverted 61.8% retracement. This chart tells me the stock could easily get back up to about $3.32, and then it will be put up or shut up time. This will either be a stock that stairsteps higher, or a bearish head and shoulders.
Therefore, as an insurance policy against a long delay, I have decided to sell half. It it gets way back down I can always buy it back, and I still have 1/2 if the news comes tomorrow and it runs. Strictly from a luck standpoint, it will probably take off now.
Comments and questions are welcome.
Your total lack of understanding of this stock never ceases to amaze me. Let me know if you want any examples.
Editor: If you have a positive contribution, feel free to make it. If you think it will go the other way, provide evidence as it relates to HDY. If you want to vomit up old, failed ideas, they will not be seen in this BLOG.
Hyperdynamics Makes Progress in Guinea Talks:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060203/20060203005112.html?.v=1
I FIRMLY BELIEVE THAT THE OFFICIALS OF GUINEA HAVE BEEN APPROACHED AND MADE AWARE OF ALL THE OPTIONS AVAILBLE TO THEM BY OUTSIDE PARTIES WHO ORIGINALLY TRIED TO CUT HDY OUT OF THE PICTURE EARLIER. IF A DEAL IS CONSUMATED BETWEEN THE GOV. OF GUINEA AND HDY IT WILL NOT BE AS LUCRATIVE AS HDY PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AND I DO OWN HDY.
Editor: That’s an interesting theory. I am informed that the Guinea Gov’t has admitted that the original contract is still valid. However, if they don’t issue drilling permits, it doesn’t mean anything. I believe it is going to happen. The signals I am reading simply lead me to believe it will take a while and test everyone’s patience. In the meantime, each successive week will lead to another small but persistant drop in the stock. That’s why I decided on the insurance policy of selling half.
From the State Dept. to the world court (where they were but a mere 6 mos. ago) the people who might itch in getting out of this deal realize they are boxed in, I think this will take a while but will result in a positive conclusion. I also feel, this development has the potential to be huge for the company and the country. I am sure the development must be quantified so as to show SOME people involved the benefits to THEM. What are your thoughts?
Editor: I agree completely. I also agree it might take a while. While it is taking a while, do you see the stock headed up or down? My thoughts are in will slowly grind down, especially in light of the recent registration statement wherein 2 million shares became free trading at a substantial discount to the market. That’s why I sold half- If I’m wrong, I still have half. If I’m right, I can re-buy them at a lower price. I guess the only thing we’re discussing is where the stock goes in the next 30 days. What are your thoughts?
Why not wait until after the SHM to sell? 1 week is not that long, and I would think anything can happen between now and then.
Editor: Perhaps I should have. However, it is just an insurance policy. I only sold half.
8 DAYS TILL WE SEE IF THERE IS ANY REAL SUGAR!! AT THE SUGAR CREEK -STOCK HOLDERS MEETING FEB 21 2006.
Editor: I would love to hear some information come out of the meeting on their Louisianna properties- that project was supposed to save the company- yet, we haven’t heard a word about it in months.
I do not feel selling to be unadvisable. The avg. volume and recent run in stock price (over he last two mos.) indicates to me an interest and support for the stock. Because of the relative price support it doesn’t appear to be the usual flush out by the typical VC group. It appears to me one thing “finance” groups love more than easy money…a good story. I am not selling any of mine holdings yet, but I have been wrong before.
Editor: All valid points. And, I can tell you with a great deal of certainty that Dutchess would rather take one year to sell their 2 million shares at $3, then two months at $2. I just feel the Guinea deal is not imminent, and investors who have bought the stock betting on the event will lose patience. Like you, I have been wrong before. That’s why I only sold half.
Any comments on today.
Editor: See next Blog posting.
I HATE TO SAY IT !! BUT IT SEEMS LIKE I HEARD THAT TUNE BEFORE. THE ONLY THING I FOUND DISTURBING BUT NOT UNEXPECTED WAS THAT THE GOV. OF GUINEA WANTS A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HDY. AFTER READING THE RESULTS OF THE FEB21,06 STOCK HOLDERS MEETING IT APPEARS THAT IF NO AGREEMENT IS IN PLACE IN A MONTH, THE STOCK WILL DECLINE AT A RAPID PACE.–IS IT TIME TO LEAVE???
Editor: You read my comments. In my view, the answer is yes, but don’t panic. Like always, there’s a bounce coming probably. However, I don’t know when, but I am selling. I will be prepared to get back in.