Lots of recent comments on CEO Watt’s current trip to Guinea. If you follow the situation, you should recognize the recent run up in the stock in advance of Friday’s news about his trip to Guinea were likely related.
However, I am a big believer that sometimes the way a stock behaves tells you more about what’s really happening than the company does.
I was late to the party on the last surge, and stuck flatfooted with no shares. The way the stock is behaving, I believe it is likely I’ll still be able to pick it up cheaper once again.
Here’s a current chart:
The horizontal blue lines represent the levels the stock achieved on each of Watt’s trips to Guinea. In January, the stock hit the $3.50 plus mark. On this last move, which incidentally happened before the news was announced, the stock only achieved the $3.00 level. With each successive trip the high in the stock is getting lower, meaning the market is getting less excited about the prospects for obtaining the drilling permits.
This process seems to be taking forever. My guess- they will close the deal sometime approaching summer. However, it could happen tomorrow for all I know.
Just on pure instinct I believe I will still be able to buy it cheaper. I’ll be taking a hard look between $2 and $2.25 this time around. I am running the risk that I will be out if they sign the deal in the near term, but it’s a risk I am prepared to take.
Comments and questions are welcome. There’s a few who think I’m nuts for being out for now. A wise man once said “Ideas are plentiful, capital is scarce”. Nevertheless, in or out, I hope this company becomes wildly successful.
I have searched hi and low, near and far, up and down, in and out, over and under, and, side to side. For the life of me, I can understand why everyone who knows of this stock does not own *SOMETHING*. Can you help me understand why someone such as yourself does not own some token amount? My perspective on speculatives is I’m willing to kiss a weeks salary good-bye. Why would you not own 1,000 shares and put them in a lock box? You even admit the upside is ridiculous. Can you offer me some sort of explanation as to why any sane individual would not own a few shares?
Editor: Because I have a traders mentality and like to buy the down trend and sell the uptrend. However, I should probably have one small core position and trade around it. The next time I buy some, I will probably hold a small amount for the long term. You are quite right.
Look blinky, you don’t get that it takes perhaps typically MORE THAN 10 years to bring in the first well. What HDY has done in under 5 years is phenomenal. It sets records for speed of completion. It will produce hard results waaaay faster than is expected. In HDY I trust. The Watts family is very nice too – helping the PEOPLE of Guinea too. This is a double-down 10-bagger waiting to happen in my opinion.
Editor: Or you could argue the company has blown through $25 million in cash in the last five years. For that, they now have $400k in annual revenues which is in a law suit, and a bunch of exciting African seismic data that they can’t use on behalf of the shareholders at this time. I didn’t take any where near five years to build out the start of the Russian oil infrastructure- a market that tripled in value in 2005. However, I am only pointing out the other side of the story. Like you, I hope this is a 10 bagger. No one can predict what an unstable, corrupt African government is going to do. I am hoping for the best like you, bozo.
I would like to comment on Anonymous’s blog. My answer is “trader mentality” also. However, I recently purchased SLB @ 46 and it is now 120.1 and it pays a dividend. HDY is no where even close, yet. As Kramer would say Giddie Up.
Editor: That’s an absurd comparison. If you don’t recognize that HDY is a treacherously speculative start up, and SLB is a high successful company, then you are on another planet. One investment has little to do with the other. One has a certain place in your portfolio, the other a different place. HDY hopes to become real some day. For now, it’s just a story that trades.
WHAT IF THE GUINEA GOV IS JUST JERKING US AROUND UNTIL THE DRILLING DATES PAST? WE ARE SOL!
Editor: That’s another way of saying this is a very risky stock to own. Don’t forget it.