It’s gut check time on CPNE right now. The hot money continues to flow out of this stock, and it has fallen another 17% today.
This would be a good opportunity to remind everyone about the past two big sell offs in this stock. When looked back on, they both turned into very strong buying opportunities. I particularly remember when Q3 numbers came out. They were outstanding, and in the aftermath the stock dropped from $1.80 to $1 in two trading days. Look where we are now.
Here’s the chart, and it’s the absolutely perfect low risk retracement if the price holds in the $2.50 range:
Now, if this roughly $2.50 level holds, we should get a sustainable rebound. If we end up down into the $2.25 range, it will technically be a negative. It could signal lower levels ahead for some time.
It the meantime, I am trying to buy back some of the 10,000 shares I sold in the $3.40 range at $2.45- let’s see if I get filled. It is now bid at $2.50. I might have to raise my bid.
If you check the February 9 BLOG- you will see I called it a very strong buy at $2.40. It has cooperated.
If you like this one, and have been looking for an opportunity to pile in, now is the time. As I write, the bid is firming.
Comments and questions are welcome.
As usual, I start supsecting if the ‘hot money’ knows anything about planned shares dilution to enable the insiders to get the most benefit of the improving results to the detriment of other share holders. For all my microcap holdings, I now maintain a spreadsheet of history of total vs Float shares by month to see what games if any the management may paly
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
I took your advise and got in at 2.43. This is the first time I’m following your advise, let’s hope it is a good one!
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Past posts have indicated a share value of $4. With a $2.50 (PPS) do you still maintain that forecast this year?
Fundamentals have not changed so I am adding to my position!
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Why is the hot money flowing out of this stock, do they not like the business model?, do you still believe this is a 4-5 dollar stock that is headed to a Nasdaq listing and if so why? Thanks
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
looks like you got your 2.45 filled…
boy, what a day… kinda deja-vu eh? i think i learned the hard way to sell before the news with this company… didnt think it would happen twice…
might be a long haul back to 3…
Editor: I don’t think so. I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Do you think today’s massive sell off was profit taking or something more? I like the stock idea enough to buy 2500 shares, hopefully the fireworks are about to begin!
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Well, you should have filled. The difference between now and last August is that there wasn’t the history of performance that there is now. However, somebody is sure getting out. Could it be still the dudes that own that 8 million share overhang?
BD
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
how do you feel now about that it closed at 2.38 … somewhat off from 2.5 level… would you still call this a strong buy technically?
i feel tomorrow will tell…
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
What are your thoughts on the stock at this level around 2.38, still a good buy or should it be red flagged. Do you still predict long term break out up to 4.
Shabber
Editor: I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
This isn’t retail selling. The way i see it we are looking at Efund, Duchess or Management. The shares in the last private transaction are not tradeable yet i don’t believe. Very interesting, if i had to guess who did this today i’m voting on Duchess, which is there right to sell. I was looking to exit the stock at 4 or 5 now i’m looking at adding – the fundies are just too strong. I expect a major snap back once this wash-out is done. A couple of catalyst i see are 2007 guidance – i believe this week and unadited nubmers for Q4. Another catalyst comes next week in the form of February subcription numbers for the onlinesupplier.com. IF those are as strong or stronger than before – look out we got a hot one here. I still think we see 5 in the next 2 or 3 quarters.
Editor: I think you are wrong on the source. I know the guys and Dutchess- they are sellers, but far from stupid sellers. They are real pros and know they would only hurt themselves selling this way. I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Also is this perhaps just a general reflection of the overall market slump due to growth concerns or the oil price as was seen today? I’m not sure if micro cap stocks reflect general market trends or not.
Shabber
Editor: Micros are correcting a bit as Goldilocks gets some wrinkles. But, not this violently. I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Hi, I do share your optimism about CPNE and also expect the 2.40$ level to hold. However, I have been looking at the traffic on alexa.com for the site onlinesupplier.com and after strong surges in December and January, traffic has fallen very strongly beginning of February and does not show any signs of recovery. Do you think this will have (or already has) a negative impact on share price and subscribers in the short or medium term?
Thanks a lot for a feedback
Best Regards
Axel
Editor: I don’t follow the Alexa traffic patterns, so I couldn’t comment. However, I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
Another question: are your SSL’s close only? because I am betting we hit $2.25 tomorrow. It sure did give back a bunch today. You clearly filled your 10k order.
Titan Global was a disappointment today. Started strong but ended unchanged. I’m wondering if a gtc order at $1.15 might pick it up.
Your comments always appreciated.
BD
Editor: Only filled on 2500 shares as I needed to beef up my buying power in the account I was using. Intend to buy more in the morning. I am informed some stupid sellers filed to sell about 1 million shares under 144. Looking into it tomorrow. In my opinion, Q1 will be a blowout. I strongly recommend buying on this meltdown.
what’s “under 144″ mean? can you clarify? 1 million shares under 144 – ?
tae
Editor: It simply means investors who previously had shares that weren’t eligible to be sold into the market did a filing to do so. I have not confirmed this rumor one way or another yet.
I would be very interested in the findings in regards to the 144 filing. As to is the filing complete, and have the shares begun to hit the market already, or are they yet to come into play? Is this a single source of the filing, or have there been multiple filings? Are restricted shares considerred part of the stock pool, or would this result in dilution
Editor: I haven’t confirmed anything one way or another yet. I simply heard a rumor from an unconfirmed source. Will be researching this later today.
I noticed these 6 or more insider sells on my Etrade Research site a few weeks ago. I didn’t recognize their names so I dug a little deeper. I called up one of the insiders.
What I found out was back in Jan 06, CPNE needed some money so they sold restricted shares thru brokers to a number of individuals.
These shares have shown up on the insider sales but their 1 year restriction has expired. It doesn’t mean that they are selling their shares. The man who I talked with was going to sell some of his shares.
Long & Buying
Skip in Tampa
Editor: I’m long and buying as well. I believe there will be some new filings in the near future, but you never know for sure.
Can you tell me how you figure out the retracement values. Is there a mathematical formula I can use?
Editor: You need some sophisticated stock charting software, then you can set the retracement parameters yourself. We use eSignal, but there are many others. It’s about $150 per month for the package, but well worth it if you are a serious investor.
I think this global melt down of stock market might be the reason. The “stupid sellers” might have forseen the Chinese stock market tumbling and wanted to cash out. So they are not that stupid after all.
Editor: If they hadn’t “sold stupid”, they would have gotten more money for their stock. Nevertheless, it seems the abrupt sell off is over and the stock is rebounding. Hope you jumped in a bought some cheap.
Hello Editor, I am curious to when CPNE will release their financials. If my memory serves me correctly, wouldn’t it be today. I thought they stated that their financial would be release by the end of FEB?
Editor: The company has already informed the stock market they would be delivering $.18 EPS in 2006- the year end audited numbers should be filed any day now, but at this point they are already priced in. The next quarterly numbers are going to be important, and I believe they are going to be extraordinary. The quarter ends at the end of March, so we won’t see those until early May. However, the market will start pricing in its expectations for those numbers before the event.
I haven’t purchased any CPNE stock yet, have had some delay in transfering funds between accounts. I’m a relatively low key/amount investor, do you think even if my funds are not available till monday it will still be a good entry point for this stock. I initially bought some when the stock was at 3.2.
Thanks
Editor: Short answer- yes.
BOOOOOOYAHHH> Great financial release. I hope with this great release that the stock will actually go in the right direction this time. What are you thoughts on this release editor?
Editor: Will take a hard look at the 10K this am, and publish some thoughts. The market likes it. One immediate thought- someone is coaching these guys to be much smarter about how they disclose information. They preannounced $.18, then delivered $.20- good stuff.
I noticed the 10K is showing 17 cents fully dilluted earnings which indicates the company has earned 8 cents fully dilluted for the quarter. Regular earnings for the quarter were 9 cents a share.
Looks like upsell income is starting to grow faster than Membership income. Lead revenue and fulfillment income seems to have decreased from the prior quarter.
Also, do you think the stupid seller is done selling ?
Hopefu
Editor: I hope everyone understands I wasn’t saying selling is stupid. I was saying someone was selling in a stupid manner. Those are different. Will have a look at the numbers today and publish some thoughts. I like that they forecast $.18, and delivered $.20. That’s a smart change on information dissemination. And yes, it looks like whoever was selling stupid is done. Cost themselves a lot of money.
According to the latest filings CPNE did $.20 EPS for 2006 instead of $.18!
It’s even a better buy at these levels!
Editor: Very smart way to do it. Good for the market.