I’ve been a little behind on the content of late, but am getting caught up now. EFSF deserves some observations as my targets keep being blown away, and the strength of this stock causes me to continue to upgrade my target price.
My $.40 price target was breached two days ago, so if you sold the stock you should have made a great profit. Never look back.
This one has almost been too easy. There are a lot of fervent believers in this company, and now that it has woken up, so have many loyal shareholders. $1 is probably in the crosshairs sometime this year, but many feel much higher levels are in store further down the road.
Technically, this stock is behaving like a well trained hunting dog. It goes exactly where its master expects. Here’s a chart I published in the BLOG on Feb 9:
This is a very long term look at the stock- in fact, it goes back to when the company first traded publicly.- 2.5 years ago.
I predicted the stock was destined to get up to its long term downtrend line. That was a fait accompli. Where the stock went from there was technically far more interesting.
Here is the same chart extended out to today:
Look at the way the stock went straight to the downtrend line before offering any kind of correction. Absolutely wonderful.
So, where to from here? In my view, the key still remains in the long term downtrend line. If the stock can get through that line with vigor, it will signal a major trend reversal in this stock, and from there the sky is the limit.
I suspect it might take several efforts like those of the past couple of days to really breakthrough and breakout. In technical analysis, persistence breaks down resistance.
I believe it could take one or two more tries, but once we breach the downtrend line it’s going to get really exciting.
So- here’s what you really want to know. What do you do now? Good question. The company has not delivered much news of late. Any positive developments could send us much higher, and something is overdue.
Since the move has been so short term, here’s a short term look at the current good and perfect entry levels:
These retracement levels only cover the last six days, so it’s pretty short term stuff. Not to worry if these levels don’t hold up- we just have to look a little longer term.
According to the chart, $.44 is a good entry level, and $.395 is perfect. As such, I would now set the short term SSL at $.355.
The company is due to come up with something exciting in the near future, so if your not on board, don’t waste too much time.
Fervent believers are looking very good right now. I hope the company makes them look even better.
Comments and questions are welcome.
I went to the Company’s product page on their web site and it shows Immune Booster Bar is supposed to launch in early 2007 but we haven’t seen a PR on it. Also, Cinnechol, their cholesterol product is due out soon.
Now, that EFSF has the retail pipeline with Cinnergen, it should be easier to get shelf space for their other products which makes it more convenient for customers to buy and cheaper for EFSF than selling thru infomercials and online.
Their retail pipeline they’ve established is possibly their most valuable asset. It is the key to getting their products directly to consumers.
What’s your opinion of the progress they’ve made in establishing their retail pipeline?
Editor: I couldn’t comment on that issue until I see the numbers. I know the math related to their expectations- anotherwords if they are in x number of stores, and each store sells 5 units per month- what it equates to. However, I need to see numbers to make an intelligent comment.
Todays correction bothered me a bit at first,now it only a chance to get more.
If any of you guys are farmers then just think of the potentual of Ora-Phyte alone, the alternative is pretty horrible stuff. If/when this new product gets off the ground it will be a world wide product in no time. That $100 B annually Is Very real and has much greater impact than the news out sugests.( I’m ex Ministry of Agriculture. New Zealand and have had some dealings with the plant nematode problem)
Editor: The stock ran from just under $.20 to $.50 in about seven weeks. That’s pretty much unheard of. Now, you are worried because it drops a few cents? Get ready for far worse corrections in the future on this and many other stocks. We rarely get consistent runs like this. Get ready for the summer (your winter) when you resolve and commitment to this stock will really be tested.
Third quarter numbers should be out around the 12th to 15th of March. I think when these numbers come out EFSF should for the first time be in the black. No more selling shares to finance the company. I am a frevent believer, and have been for 2 years and 3 months now. This spring will be like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years rolled into one. Load the wagon.
Editor: I think it is highly unlikely the company will be in the black. However, the numbers will probably show that sales are starting to take off for the first time in their history. By the way, I don’t believe it is important for them to be in the black- just to show growth. Their only revenue product at this time is Cinnergen.
Re: Bryan, your answer. Exactly—we need to see how many of those 10,000 doors actually have the stuff in them. HESG supposedly had a great pipeline but crashed and burned because it couldn’t get the product out, it cost too much and didn’t sell as well as predicted. Management’s predictions are always thru rosy glasses. Wait for the data. Questions are resolved when data’s involved.
BD
Editor: We’ll get an idea of how much momentum we are getting when we see the next quarterly report. However, we only need to see growth to keep this going- it’s not going to be eye opening yet.
Do you suggest selling off on this stock and then buying back when it drifts further down?
Editor: That depends entirely on you and what your goals are. If you are happy with the short term profit you have made, go ahead and sell the stock. On the other hand, the company appears to be entering the beginning of the sales cycle for a number of exciting new products, and we are just on the front end of a major growth spurt which could yield much higher prices. Of course, we could go into a major market slump for micros, but there could be a lot more to be made in this stock. In short, I am looking for favorable entry levels at this time, not levels to sell.
Do you think there are shorts that are in a bad way on this stock and a squeeze may happen if we keep moving higher? And, did you see where the report talked about getting product on the shelves of Wal-Mart and Target as if it is a done deal. Has this bullish news been already cooked in / or will these announcements still make this stock pop?
Editor: Perhaps, although I believe a lot of shorts have been blown out of the stock in the last month. As far as where they could go on the shelves- I only cover publicly disclosed information. I can’t really comment on anything that might be considered insider information. The answer to your question- whether announcements of that nature put a charge into the stock will depend on where it is and how it has traded when they come out. Right now, they might be priced in. However, if we have a pullback, or extend out sideways for a few weeks, they would probably put a charge in the stock.
How is their marketing program progressing? Has anyone seen their ads on TV? How will potential customers learn about their products?
Editor: The company has informed me they will be increasing the advertising efforts as sales increase. I have seen a number of reports from members who have seen the commercial.
I treasure the pullbacks, thats what got me 60,000 shares of Commerce Planet, is it a bit risky? I am willing to take a chance I like this company much more and made a substansial profit with Commerce.
Editor: EFSF is certainly a lot riskier, but has a lot of upside as well. Lots of interesting products to introduce. Accumulating on pullbacks is the only way to make real money and minimize your risk.
This company has very little to no cash (under 1million dollars)…yet they are saying that they are starting to play ball with the largest retailers in the country…how will they be able to buy enough inventory and produce product and then sell the product and then wait the standard 60-90 days to get paid from these retailers…how can they produce all the goods??? They would be floating millions of dollars that they don’t have for at least 6 months.
I just don’t get it…they do have allot of fingers of business and if all these fingers grow into hands and other body parts to create a business who will finance it???
My thoughts are simple…they cannot do any business without raising additional money and diluting the shareholders again and again…the company might actually do business and might have a hit product but unless its a BLOCKBUSTER it simply won’t be enough to keep up with the shares being sold to finance the sales of the products.
Also, I am very concerned when a company puts out a press release …if we sell only 4 per month it represents 10million or whatever dollars to us…any company that does this is run by amateurs…this is just not done by professionals…it is like feeding ?you? the shareholders candy! Remember projections are just that and nobody knows what will happen at retail?this companies stock is like fools gold?the real kicker is the $2/share projection?that would make this company worth 240million dollars?today they have almost ZERO sales and they are projecting $2/share?somebody is selling allot of stock here ?I wouldn?t be surprised if the insiders are unloading all their stock!!!
Editor: Your views represent the negative side of the story, and anything could happen. My suggestion- if you have concerns, don’t invest in the stock. It is certainly much riskier than many of the others I cover. If you want cash, earnings, and well financed stories, look at PNWIF, CPNE, and TTGL. Thank you for your contribution.
When can we expect to see real earnings?
apositive P/E? When is 10-Q expected?
Editor: I believe it will be a couple of quarters before we see positive EPS. Will let you know when next numbers are expected to come out.
Auriga Laboratories – It is following its projections and has recently perked up. Do you have any comments regarding the recent run of ARGA?
Editor: Nice to see the stock trading so well, but no one seemed the slightest bit interested, so I abandoned the stock. Since I don’t follow it anymore, I couldn’t comment.
I like your .75 target. I feel with the release of a pr on the Immune bar it will happen. The Miltary should be the first to use them. They can use something like that.
Editor: I like the way the stock has held up in this meltdown. It suggests the stock will do very well when it starts heading back. The company has a number of products that could get investors excited- I don’t know if it will be the bar or something else. I don’t have to know- with the number of products they have, we just need one or two more to take off.
Whats behind the downtrend in EFSF despite the solid news on increase cinnergen sales.
Shabber
Editor: See last night’s blog.