I guess it was inevitable. EFSF, which was the last hold out of this past season’s winners, finally succumbed to selling pressure, threw in the towel, and gave ground.
Frankly, I thought the stock made a valiant effort to hold up as long as it did while all the other small stocks around it were falling out of bed.
EFSF had been holding in the $.36 to $.40 range, a double from this past January. All in all, a pretty stalwart performance.
The stock start starting slipping on higher volume last Thursday, and continued selling off fairly aggressively through Friday and into this morning.
No doubt, the complete absence of news concerning fundamental progress out of the company over the last few months has been responsible for the recent drop in the stock along with a seasonally rough time for micros in general.
The company has four products worth getting excited about: Cinnergen- a natural product to control blood sugar levels; Cinnechol: A natural product to control cholesterol; Oraphyte: a natural product to control nematodes (round worms) in agriculture; and PurEffect: an acne skin cream product. There are several others the company is working on, but those seem to be the main focus.
Of the four, only one is commercially available, and I’m sure investors are getting impatient. Cinnergen is in stores and online- I have seen the add for it on CNN- sales must be growing for the product, and there is nothing but upside there. However, there hasn’t been any news for at least two months on Cinnechol, Oraphyte, or PurEffect.
Cinnechol was supposed to be available by now. Oraphyte is being evaluated by Dupont. PerEffect is supposed to be going to market via informercial, but there is no public information on the status.
So, is it any wonder that in a seasonally rough time, shareholders of EFSF are becoming a little impatient and the stock is getting hit?
So, where does that put us now? Here’s the chart:
This is a daily chart going back to when the stock started behaving much better early in ’07 and the OTC Journal starting covering the stock. The first day, you could have picked up all you wanted in the $.20 range, so it’s still a 50% move from January- great by any standards.
However, if you paid up for the stock and you are still in it, you have to consider your options right now. My SSL was $.32, and it is trading below that level. If you haven’t sold and are interested in preservation of capital and willing to walk away, you need to sell now.
If you still like the company and where it is headed (we all hope), now you simply have to hang in there and take a longer term view.
I wouldn’t rush out to buy it today- I’d like to see it hang around in the $.30 range for a few days to convince me the “hot” money is out. This is the 61.8% retracement level, and the stock is likely to gravitate there for the time being.
Of course, then you run the risk that the company will come out with some market moving news, and the stock will be right back in shape.
I guess Rome wasn’t built in one day, so we need to have a little patience with this one. Typically, here’s what happens. You finally give up and throw in the towel, and then the company turns around and delivers big news after months of waiting. Isn’t that typical?
Most if not all of the damage has probably been done. If you haven’t sold, it might be a good idea to hold your nose and hang in there at this point. This one could get hot overnight- there are a lot of investors watching the story, and the company has a very loyal shareholder base.
Comments and questions are welcome.
Is there a timetable for Dupont’s report? Any idea on when this company is going to report earnings. I have tried to contact them, but they have removed their email addresses from the website. I like this company but not hearing anything is making me nervous.
Editor: When you are nervous, that’s the time to buy. When you think everything is great because the stock is doing so well- that’s the time to sell. As far as contact information goes- I will look into that.
Seems like, knock on wood, we have reached the bottom of this recent sell off. Speculation has been that perhaps the break through of OTC journal’s .32 stop loss was attributable for some of the selling…the rest? Tough to tell. No huge blocks contributed the recent sell off (just a lot of small dumping), nor does it seem like there has been any insider selling. It’s easy to get discouraged, but I keep reminding myself that debtors are sitting on .55 shares. That has to mean something — and likely, something with positive portents for the future. Thoughts on all this?
Editor: Could be- but that’s ok. That’s what SSLs are for. Suppose EFSF continues to operate in a complete news vacuum for another 4 months. I can assure you this stock will probably complete a round trip back to where we started. On the other hand, suppose the company gets a deal with Dupont on Oraphyte tomorrow? The stock will no doubt go up, and people who sold it at $.32 might even buy it at $.35. However, if it’s going to $1, does it matter? This is the kind of stock I really like the SSL for- after all, they have never generated any real sales numbers- it’s still a story. A stock like CPNE- that would be different. There’s real fundamentals, so holding down through an SSL is a lot less risky. If you are an aggressive investor and not afraid of risk, now might be a good time to accumulate EFSF.
What is this Dupont deal and is there any timetable? When is the earning report due?
Editor: I have no idea about when the Dupont deal might be due- Earnings are due out any day now. I am told the numbers for the current quarter- May, June, July- this will be the one that really shows major improvement on the top line.
Here is story about cinnamon being good for diabetes.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070620/hl_nm/spoonful_cinnamon_dc_1;_ylt=AskkAp.BniexU6jI.N3fhccE1vAI
Editor: Thank you very much for the contibution.
This is way oversold. I expect a nice bounce next week. It’s at the bottom. JMO
Editor: I certainly hope you are right. Would be nice to see this thing start to behave better.
I guess that the recent and sudden decay of EFSF shares is mostly related to panic sell-offs caused by speculations around the dismissal of the Company’s principal independent accountant as stated in the SEC filing Form 8-K of 21-Jun-2007. However, there is no indication that EFSF is in financial trouble or that their financial statements were wrong. It appears to be more of a formal issue.
Editor: This is not of concern to me. However, the way the stock is behaving is of concern. There is a vacuum of corporate achievement, and this needs to change or the stock will continue to work its way South.
I expressed concern about the lack of news some weeks ago, and you mentioned you would forward my comment to management. Now we in a full free fall. With no bottom in site. Are you in touch with them at all? Have they indicated anything being forth-coming? Any acknowledgment of the state of things? Is there anything to hope for from a communications standpoint to stop the bleeding? I have lost all faith in this company and am starting to consider that may be a scam.
Editor: I am in touch with management- they are working feverishly to get some quality information to the investing public on some of the internal progress. Stand by.
Well, so much for the bounce. Down .03 so far on Tuesday. Still no word on earnings?
Editor: I just realized earnings won’t be out until the end of July- it’s a year end statement, so it is an audited 10k, and they have 90 days to get it done.
WOW I’m sick, I never thought it would go this low… I didn’t sell not one share. Every time I would think the bottom was in it would go down more. I sure do hope I’m not left holding the BAG. Your comments please.
Editor: My comments are very simple- I keep stressing this to everyone, and no one seems to catch on. I have a published SSL (suggested stop loss) at $.32- if you decided to hold it down through that level, by implication you have decided to be a long term investor. If you are not long term, you will probably be selling at or near the bottom, which is your choice. If you are long term, this sell off shouldn’t be of major concern to you. Long term, there is sure a lot to like about this company. Short term, this is painful, but not unexpected in a high risk situation like this.
Any thoughts about the ‘quiet’ coming out of the company? They removed all debt, now they are (apparently) auditing books. Meanwhile Cinnergen sales seem to be going well and Dupont is still be in the cards. So why the quiet….if they are being audited for a sale, would it be SOP to stop issuing PRs? Just fishing for ideas…
Editor: All I can say is they are working hard to get some disclosure out on the progress of some of their products, and the market is losing patience.
do you have any stock that are doing well now because it doesn’t look like it. none are doing that good, yes they ran their run but died at the end
Editor: Typical for this time of year. They generally make their lows by the end of July, and August is the best time of year to buy if you have a 6 month time horizon. CPNE- $.50- PNWIF- $1- EFSF- $.15- all last August. Check the charts. EFSF seems to have made its low and is in the rebound mode already.
Like to get your thoughts on this hiring (the retired Dupont guy.) Does this mark the end of the possible deal with Dupont, and instead suggest that EFSF is going to go it alone/independently/elsewhere? That is how I read the release, however, I notice that paragraph has been stuck in the middle of the release that speaks to the two parties working towards entering negotiations for a possible liscening agreement. ???
Editor: Here you go: http://www.otcjournal.com/archive/listserv/20070628-1.html
I think with the guy retiring from DuPont to hop on with EFSF is a great sign for the future of Oraphyte and a relationship with DUPont. It’s also nice to finally see some buying action, on the way to $1 + in my opinion
Editor: My thoughts: http://www.otcjournal.com/archive/listserv/20070628-1.html
Finally some good news and a nice reaction. Hopefully this is the start of nice move up. We’ll see. Do you see a move back to test the highs from earlier this year or do we wait for more good news to start up?
My thoughts: http://www.otcjournal.com/archive/listserv/20070628-1.html