eFood Looking Ripe For Rebound

It strikes me we are past some of the summer sell off lows, and several of our ideas could be ready for dramatic rebound phases. EFSF, NIHK, and CPNE all look ripe for rebounds, but I believe EFSF is the one to jump into today.

Last week, the company announced it was in the final stages of launching an ecommerce Cinnergen web site. Clearly, this means sales are not off the charts at the retail locations, but the company is taking steps to sell more product. It strikes me as a good move on their part.

Most of all, I like the chart. As you followers know, I love buying stocks at 61.8% retracements. I don’t like trying to buy them when they are falling. The old saying is don’t try to catch a falling knife- you’ll get cut. However, you have to look at them once they have fallen and are climbing back.

Here’s the EFSF chart:

efsf1.gif

Going back to the big upleg which started last January, the 61.8% retracement of that whole move is in the $.31 range.

The stock sold off rather violently in June, and capitulated down to about the $.25 level. It was at this point you needed to exercise some discipline and sell if you were short term.

However, it rebounded very quickly back to the $.30 to $.32 range, which tells me that is where the support lies. And, of course- it happens to be the 61.8% retracement level.

EFSF looks like it has great support at these levels and is ready to rebound. It’s simply a technical observation. The performance of the stock is a bit like getting the flu. It was sick for a while, but the patient is stable and clearly recovering.

Accumulate EFSF for a breakout move now. Be in before the patient returns to its former powerful self. New SSL- $.235

8 thoughts on “eFood Looking Ripe For Rebound

  1. I agree that the stock looks ripe for a comeback, but disagree that the online store points to lukewarm retail sales. A $500,000 piece of custom software – “developed for Cinnergen Inc.” and nearly complete – must have been in the works for some time, 6 months or more. At least, it must pre-date the big retail distribution push… no?

    Editor: Perhaps- but no one needs to spend $500k for a one product ecommerce web site- that probably involves advertising costs as well. Anymore than about $25k would be absolutely absurd. You could easily spend another $475k getting buyers to the site.

  2. Wow all this great news and the stock is still stuck in the mud. What do you feel it will take to get this above .55? I think we have a winner here but what will it take to get the street to see it to?

    Editor: Real Corporate progress. It will have its day in my view.

  3. I work in web development and a $500k 1 product ecommerce site is absurd. However, they were estimating the “value” of the software – not what they paid. I sure hope they did not spend that much.

    Editor: The software couldn’t possibly be worth any thing remotely close to that. Who knows what they meant. There’s no way they spent that much.

  4. This is a strange stock, indeed. We’ve recently had three very positive pieces of press issued (former Dupont guy joining the team, Big E-commerce web site for Cinnergen in the works, and two very big celebrity spokespeople signed for PureEffect). And yet, with all this, we still can’t seem to even catapult back into the 40s, let alone, take a sniff at 50 cents. Tough to figure – we hit that 50 cent price a while ago prior to ANY of this news, when everything was pure conjecture! Now we get substance, and it just brings the stock partially back to where it was. (Granted, from the mid 20s to here is a nice lift, but relative to it’s former high, you’d think we’d have gotten more bang for our news buck.) Thoughts?

    Editor: I’ll sum it up in one word- summer- micros are very seasonal. Look at the volume the stock is trading compared to Jan, Feb, and March. It’s not there like it was then, and it’s only because it’s summer. Once we get back into Sept, Oct it will improve again. This is the best time of year to accumulate if you have a multi month time frame.

  5. I would say this is the start of Real Corporate progress. Now a pr on the start of Cinnechol would get my other vote of progress. When do you think that will happen Monday hehe? Great call on getting your people back in the other day under .30 they must love you.I’m thinking more and more about your .75 target. If a deal gets done with Dupont isnt .75 going to seem very cheap? What do you think a deal is worth if it does happen?I think it could be at least worth 2-3 dollars on that deal alone.

    Editor: We have to go through $.75 to get to a dollar. I am assuming they will have one product that becomes commercially successful. Cinnergen is not that product- yet- Pur Effect looks like it could be. Oraphyte could be. There are others. It’s just the odds. If there is more than one commercially successful product, the target could go up considerably. We’ll figure it out when we get there.

  6. I’d be interested in your thoughts and those of your readers on this: If Cinnergen and PurEffect do well and DuPont decides that it likes Oraphyte, perhaps DuPont would simply decide to buy EFSF outright. Their pockets are certainly deep enough.

    Editor: I guess we can speculate on that, but it seems a bit far fetched. Let’s let Dupont decide it wants to market Oraphyte before we have them buying the company.

  7. Would you say that EFSF is strictly a BUY now?

    Editor: Absolutely, but have a risk tolerance back into the $.28 to $.32 range- it shouldn’t trade below those levels.

  8. do you have any thoughts on what may be happening with Dupont’s look into EFSF’s Oraphyte product? There are some postings on Yahoo BB about Dupont signing an agreement with another company that may be involved in similar products such as Oraphyte. I wonder if EFSF’s reaching out to a retired Dupont manager was/is an effort to find another way into product viability AFTER Dupont found it unviable.

    It’s good to hear some news around Acne cream but it’s going against a player that’s been around a long long time with success. Will be hard to match Pro-Active’s revenue but given the market place for this kind of product, I believe it’s big enough for multiple players to do well.

    Editor: If they can grab a mere 10% market share, it’s probably a $1 stock. Also, don’t forget, they aren’t taking any risk. CK41 is financing the whole thing, and they have a agenda. There is also tons of fitness programs out there, but “Body by Jake” did hundreds of millions, and they put that one together.