Here’s my short term trading idea- time to go short.

The larger market has been chugging up the charts relentlessly, all fear virtually gone. This is not an environment that lends itself to no risk in the market.

The VIX - the measure of levels of fear in the markets, has all but disappeared. Remember, I wrote a BLOG on using the VIX as a counter intuitive tool to clue us into making trades on the over market.- VIX at or below 20- too much complacency- sell.
VIX at or above 30- too much fear- buy the market. Here’s a chart of the VIX:

As you can see, the last time the VIX was this low was back in October 9th. Sorry you can’t see the timeline, but trust me, that was the time frame.

By November, we started into one of the ugliest four months I can recall in the stock market’s history.

We’re not going into another period like that as a lot of the damage has already been priced into the market. However, I do feel we are overdue for a multi week correction.

Here’s a look at the QID- the ETF I have chosen for my own account to get into a short position:

This is the security I have chosen to take a short bet on the overall market for my own money. This is the QID- an ETF that trades inversely to the QQQQs on a 2 for 1 basis. Anotherwords, if the QQQQs go up 1%, QID will go down 2%, and vice versa.

Today, as a starting position, I picked up 2,000 shares of QID at an average cost of $38.67. I am prepared to go a little deeper, or perhaps even own some puts if we go much higher.

The only wild card- options expiration tomorrow, where things can be a little wacky. I could be prepared to go even deeper next week if the market hasn’t started a corrective phase.

Comments and questions are welcome.