CGYV was out with news pre open today, and it reveals a bit more about what they are capable of doing.
On the negative side, the stock is now trading at $1.30, which is a new all time low for the stock. Technically, it is still obviously wrestling with supply- it could be from more forced liquidations, or it could be from people who have been open market purchasers just throwing in the towel. Whichever the case, I’d like to see a few up days consecutively in the stock before suggesting it is any sort of a technical buy. Clearly, one big up day in the large cap markets is not going to right the ship in the small stocks.
So- just so we’re clear. For those who wanted to protect equity, my SSL was $2- so you should have sold it at that level. Technically, until the stock gets back into an uptrend, I would stay away. Fundamentally, if you want to buy the value and be long term, the stock is a buy right now at these levels. The choice is yours and you have to know your own style. If you have a six month window in time, I believe the stock is a buy.
Today’s news concerned the delivery of a boiler to a paper mill. The paper mills are the big polluters of the rivers. They are the ones who crank out the black sludge which gets into the water systems and wreaks havoc.
CGYV has solutions for that in addition to its solution for air pollution. CGYV designed and installed a boiler to solve the black sludge problem. According to the press release, the boiler can handle up to 160 tons of this black sludge daily. It takes the steam generated from the boiler, and turns it into 2 megawatts of power. The factory can also reuse some of the waste from the boiler.
As you can see from the chart, the stock simply continues to grind down a bit lower everyday. I don’t know where the bottom is, just as I don’t know where the bottom is in anything.
It seems there is probably about 50% more stock for sale than is being bought. The goods news- as long as the company continues to grow, the supply will eventually be finite and the demand can be infinite.
Right now, there is an imbalance and I can’t say when or if the imbalance will change. If the fundamentals keep improving, and growth money goes back to China, this idea will benefit.
Comments and questions are welcome.
i like this idea as i have for many you have had over the last year or so.some didn’t work out but most made me some $. i boughtr some cgyv at 1.60 and i think i will continue to accumulate for now. it seems like a can’t miss trade jsut time will tell.
Editor: I can tell you with a great deal of certainty there are some funds who’s positions are being liquidated in a forced situation as these funds are shutting down, and banks or prime brokers have seized their assets. Once this comes to an end, and a little courage comes back to investors, I believe we will head the other way. Those funds had a cost basis of $2.18, but cost doesn’t matter anymore.
Thank you for giving us this update and for being honest. I must admit I am a little nervous because I bought more of CER then I planed but your updates help put the stock in prospective. I am holding CER longterm.
Editor: I’ll continue updating everyone on what I know. I am comfortable the company will deliver huge growth this year. I can’t say when the disconnect between the stock price and the corporate performance will end.
Hi do you think that CER will still be profitable this fiscal year and next? Thank you. Harvey B.
Editor: yes- they were almost profitable in Q2, and would have been had it not been for the cost of raising $8.5 million, doing 2 audits, and filing a registration statement. The are still profitable by over $500k through the first half of the year. Profits as a percentage of sales will go down as they now have the burden of paying the cost of being a pub co, but they will still be profitable for the year in my opinion.
Where is your mental stop on your shares? Will you allow this to go under 1.00 or even .50 and still stay in? I am willing to hold it down to 1.00 but any lower than that and Im out. The markets still have possible downside to them and no matter how good a stock sounds it could still get crushed if the markets get crushed.We all can get back in if things turnaround.
Editor: There are two stocks I have decided to simply hold for the long term- CGYV and SPKL. CGYV is a no brainer as they are profitable, well funded, and growing 110% annually. SPKL is a little scarier as they are not profitable yet, and funds will run a little low before they turn cash flow positive. If I sell them, it won’t be driven by the price. It will be driven solely by my own personal cash needs. Everything else I own could be for sale on any given day. Since I’m long term, I have no mental stop on either, which doesn’t mean I won’t suggest other investors do. That’s just my style on these two stocks.
If their is nothing wrong with this company why is it down to $1.02. I am down about 75% of my investment. What are the chances of it going to $.30 like Spicy Pickle did? I would like an honest answer. Are you still holding your 110,000 shares or did you sell some or all? Do you still have confidence in this company? Would yo buy more at these levels? Thank you, Harvey B.
Editor: Harvey- I believe I have covered the forced liquidations that are taking place. I have made purchases of about 30,000 shares in the open market with a cost basis approaching $3, and am still holding my entire position. At some point, it will turn back up- probably when the forced liquidations are at an end.
WB, the symbol for Wachovia, went to 91 cents the other day. Then, it went to 7 bucks in a blink. All that with a huge float and being the fourth largest bank in the world. Despite the amount of fear induced, unreasonable selling, it rebounded 700% when the valuation was set fairly (depending on who you ask, but the price offered was basically to where the stock gravitated).
The point is CGYV is unfairly valued and depressed because of unreasonable selling and NOT because of a decline in fundamentals. Techincally, it sucks, sure. But, fundamentally, it is hard to find a story or company this compelling even in LARGE CAP US STOCKS! My money is in and will continue to flow into this stock so long the story remains the same or continues to improve while the cost of the security declines.
Thanks for blogging.
Editor: Forced liquidations of funds who are shut down are what has killed this stock. When they are over, it will come back.
How do you know there are forced liquidation? Why are you so sure about this? I havent seen any filings with the SEC.Who is doing all this selling? Thanks
Editor: I have direct lines of communication with the company, and they can tell from their transfer agent exactly who is cashing in their shares. Some of the $2.18 fund managers who participated last spring are also informing their investment banker that the funds are closing and being liquidated with no regard for cost basis. If you want to look at a list of the potential sellers, it can be found in the SEC filings in the registration statement. There is no requirement to file any sort of SEC filing that you are a seller, because the registration statement allows anyone on this list to be a seller. All their shares are free trading by virtue of the registration statement. Here’s a link to the registration statement. I can’t send you directly to the selling shareholders list- go to page 46:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1208790/000114420408049570/v124661_s1a.htm
why is lewis posting your blogs on yahoo?
Editor: I don’t know. I’m not Lewis. Why don’t you ask him? I guess he just likes what he reads and wants to spread the word. In my view, those message boards can be a source of a lot of bad information. In a lot of cases, it’s a bunch of idiots who want to be heard. Sometimes you get good information, but the best information comes from the SEC filings made by the actual companies.
I expected the liquidation and waited to buy at 1.28 where I thought it had bottomed out. I was wrong. My question is what signs should we look for in determining when the liquidation of cgyv is near or at its end?
I really like the sector of the market cgyv is in and think that China will attemp to aggressively market their country for tourism. If so, cgyv is well positioned for huge gains.
Editor: One of two things- a week or two of lower volume with the price stabilizing, or a big, high volume, stop and reversal day in the stock. One where the stock starts down, hits a floor on really high volume, then turns around and closes higher. I am not convinced the forced liquidations are over, but it seems to be stabilizing now.
ANONYMOUS, every single one of my posts is backed by references. If it is my opinion, it is so stated. If it is a PR, it is so stated and referenced INCLUDING THE DATE. And, if it is the OTC JOURNAL’S WORK AND NOT MINE, IT IS SO STATED, REFERENCED AND DATED. Worry about yourself and your attitude and stop bothering people with your negativity. Try integrity and a positive attitude for a change. Remember, I know the rules and I play by the rules. Lastly, I like what I read here and I want to spread the word:) Read my posts, look up my references and make your own decisions. Then, don’t blame others for your mistakes, ANONYMOUS.
As for the work done by this editor, it IS worth quoting, referencing and otherwise highlighting. If it wasn’t I wouldn’t quote it, cut and paste it, or refer to it, ANONYMOUS. Now, if you would like some help, just ask nicely and I will be more than willing to listen first to your concerns. Oh, and I post the Smallcap Network’s work, the SEC filings, posts from other boards that are relevant…etc. How come you did not mention any of those sources? Relax, look at cgyv with the bottom put in at $1.02 (my opinion) and entertain builing a position or adding to your position. Good luck, ANONYMOUS. By the way, my name is Lewis, what is yours?
Thanks for blogging, posting others’ blogs and responding with integrity and candor, Mr. Isen.
Editor: It would be nice if people just gave input with facts. If you don’t like an idea, don’t call it terrible just because the OTC Journal is covering it. I am not the companies, and don’t run any of them. I’d like people’s input on both the positive and negative side, backed by facts. Thanks to all who contribute.
Should that announcement about the Paulson Investment Conference be looked into more closely by us? I’ve never heard of them and I was wondering if I should be more excited about that exposure.
Off topic: Anonymous,Why don’t you introduce yourself on the yahoo finance board? If you do and I don’t respond, invariably it follows that you are on ignore as your id spills forth the kind of nonsense that makes all of those boards disreputable. That is probably why there are only a handful of us out there who try to hold meaningful discussions, post relevant information and introduce insightful hypotheses.
Editor: Thanks for the suggestion. I have toyed with the idea, but find the Yahoo! boards to be too much of a source of misinformation. It seems like there is just a raft of posters with no logical agenda- they just seem to want to meanly attack everything with no underlying facts. I have found acknowledging them just makes it worse. If anyone wants to discuss their viewpoints and offer up any ideas, I would love to have them. However, if I asked them what they didn’t like about the company, they would simply say there must be something wrong since I am involved, and where would that get investors? It would give them no useful information.
lewis is still posting your blogs on yahoo. it makes me think you are one in the same or he can”t think for himself
Editor: I can’t speak for him, but at least he identifies himself and takes a position based on facts, right or wrong. He is not me and has no formal relationship with me of any kind.
ANONYMOUS: As you know, despite your posts here, you know I speak for myself. You know, and the evidentiary facts support, that I share my own thoughts and only reference others giving credit accordingly. Mr. Isen and I are two seperate individuals, one having nothing to do with the other. If you draw your own absurd conclusion out of your internal horde of nastiness, that is your God-given perogative. I can’t help but feel a bit sorry for you really…to carry that negative baggage devoid of all rationality and barren of intellectual contributions.
Now, can you contribute as well? As it stands, your posts are baby whines, cries and foot stomping. Can you in turn share some stimulating thought or is your level of communication limited to mundane, trivial pessimism?
ON TOPIC: As I write this blog, the stock is up to 1.15 with all buy volume. As of 13:06:13 the last trade was a buy of 1755 shares to make the day’s total 24,204 shares purchased and 0 shares sold. While this is MY own opinion, I believe we bottomed at $1.02 and the past three trading days (today included) are the start of the recovery phase to be marked by a “Upstair” charted pattern. Step up, sell to a higher low…repeat.
Thanks for blogging all opinions, Sir.
Editor: Just and FYI for everyone, I am not quite prepared to believe the forced selling in CGYV is completely over with. I think we need to either see one huge volume day where the stock stops and reverses, or at least a week of quiet, sideways trading.
If you are not Lewis how did he responed to my blog before it was posted? and you have your own web page so way would it have to be posted on yahoo.
Editor: This isn’t a live chat- but I get caught up on these postings first thing in the morning. It must have just been the order. Thinking I’m Lewis simply makes no sense because if nothing else, I have proven I have nothing to hide. I fully disclose everything, and am not afraid to share answer any question for anyone at anytime. 2008 certainly has been a terrible year for any idea we put out, but I’m hardly alone on that score in the stock market. It’s a bad as it can get for small stock equities on the long side right now.
ANONYMOUS: Enough there conspiracy theorist. Your chronological senses are off in your universe, Dude.
I believe that the prudent thing for your readers is to assume, like you say, that the distressed selling may not be over and that we could re-visit the lows or break them. However, I do feel the low has been put in and it’s up from here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=CGYV.OB&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=b,v&a=m26-12-9,r14&c=
I believe we are in that week of quiet sideways-to-slightly up trading, but it’s early yet, I admit.
Thank You!
Editor: I’m not absolutely certain the lows are in, but I believe we are very close to the bottom of a toxic waste dump of forced selling.
I apologize to you and your readers for being wrong about the 1.02 bottom. Clearly I was wrong. However, my faith in the company remains undaunted.
Editor: Painful for all, but I think we are close to the turn.
Have you met the CEO? What sort of character does he have? Does he instil confidence? Do you speak Chinese…:)
Editor: I have met the CEO, but he does not speak English and I of course don’t speak Chinese beyond ordering off a Chinese menu. Since he started the company in 1995 by raising $5k from his credit card, and has the same 12 guys he started with, I would assume he has pretty good character.
I’ve noticed the volume has “stopped”. I’m thinking this is good, for now. Do you have any thoughts on that one way or the other? Thanks in advance.
Editor: I believe there are still some excess supplies the market is wrestling with from forced institutional sales. When the problem gets cleaned up, you’ll be able to see it in the market.
I may be repeating the question, but do you get excited at all about these investment conferences coming up (Paulson Investment)? I just don’t know anything about them. Is it great exposure?
Editor: Can be- it’s a shot gun type of thing. You get the company’s story out to everyone possible, and it will stick somewhere folks a looking for a bargain.
Are there costs to present at these conferences? Do we have to pay to get there?
Editor: For an attendee? I can find out if you would like. Email me at editor@otcjournal.com and I’ll get you an answer.
Be careful so far no one wants this one from the day it came out all it has done is fall apart.
Editor: You must be very disappointed today.
Hey Larry, I’m out of cash, but I can move some from one to another. My question is do you think NIHK is going to perform soon, later, or at all, if not would you think it wise to sell & buy CGYV? Thank you for your input. Verland
Editor: I suspect a lot of these small ones are going to start coming off the canvas now that the market is behaving a little better. I don’t know if NIHK will do better or worse than CGYV. CGVY is far less risky, so if you are going to sell one or the other, I would sell NIHK.
Regarding the backlong, how do they get paid for that? Upon delivery? How and when will they recognize the revenue (in general), Sir? Thank you.
Editor: They recognize 90% to 95% of the revenue once the system is delivered and installed- if they are doing the installation. There is “deferred revenue”, which varies a little with each system. It is a kind of warranty. The customer pays the additional amount of 6 to 18 months if the system continues to work well. They’ve always received all of it.
it is still $2.00 under your ssl so You must be very disappointed today.
Editor: Thanks for pointing that out. So, if you took your loss and sold it at $2 as I suggested, you were in position to buy it back yesterday at about $1.20 when I published a strong buy recommendation. I don’t know where it will be by the time you read this comment, but if it’s a lot higher than Wednesday’s closing price of $1.90, it might be a profit taking opportunity. Of course, in order to do exactly what I said to do, you would have to be literate, be able to read, and take action. I don’t know if that describes you or not, but thank you for pointing out how good my SSL turned out to be, and how good my “rebuy” turned out to be so far.