CEL-SCI (CVM) Surges, Take Some Money and Run
September 10, 2009 @ 9:35 am
Here I am again, trapped between my trader-self (which wants to take a profit on the bird in the hand) and my investor-self (which is eying the two birds in the bush). The source of my conflict is CEL-SCI (CVM) of course… which is up about 111% since we bought it back in June, and is surging again today. The concern is the possibility that the stock really can’t go any higher than the recent high of $0.81 without moving considerably lower first.
The chart shows it pretty clearly. There’s something about the $0.78 to $0.80 cent level that CVM has a tough time with. That’s not to say the stock can’t or won’t break though - it’s just going to be tough to do without the benefit of a base or support level nearby to push off of. Perhaps when the rising support line from February’s low catches up with the stock the odds of a break past $0.80 will better.
So, weighing the risk and reward from a short-term and a long-term perspective, I advocate taking partial profits here at $0.79. That’s a triple-digit gain on part of your position, which ain’t bad.
If I’m wrong, the worst-case scenario is that CEL-SCI moves and stays above $0.80, and builds a base there. If so, we can just rebuy it there later… and perhaps miss a few cents worth of gain in exchange for the sure thing we have now.
If I’m right, then we’ll all be spared the move back to $0.50/$0.55, where CEL-SCI is most likely to find support again in the absence of any other support lines.
Either way though, I’m a long-term bull (as in months to a year or more) on CVM. I’m just picking and choosing my battles.
By the way, when I say ‘partial profits’, I mean sell half your position now, and hold the other half for later. That way you can abate some risk, but not give up all of a potential reward. It’s the ultimate hedge.
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I get scared so I would have exited at the high point. The troubel is, you never know where ethe high point is.
I just watched BOCX jump 20% in one minute. Yowsa.
But with a low volume stock like that, will I be at the mercy of trying to find someone to accept my bid, and then when I want to cash out, will I have troube finding someone to buy my shares?
Editor: It’s a very speculative idea, so there’s no saying for sure. It might be thinly traded, so view it as highly risky.
Comment by steve — 9/17/2009 @ 11:03 am
I hope you didn’t sell too much of your CEL-SCI… they’ve hit $1.80 yestrerday and with today’s announcement that the FDA has approved human-testing of their H1N1 drug, they’re sure to rocket again today!
Editor: Didn’t catch the full ride. Wow- very impressive. Needs to get quiet for a while, but longer term Multikine could easily be a billion dollar cancer therapy.
Comment by Peter — 9/16/2009 @ 4:39 am
You best get a new job because you sure don’t know what you’re talking about. Had I taken your suggestion and advice I would have missed out on an additional 80 cents up move. I seriously hope that you don’t believe what you write. Always good to know who has stock smarts and who is just a wanna be who doesn’t know his front from his back.
Editor: Quite right. I’ve been wrong about lots of stuff, and I’m sure I’ll be wrong again. Looks like the stock is finally taking a breather. Hope you maxed out your profits.
Comment by bhuber — 9/15/2009 @ 11:04 am
You seem to be having great stock finds and then not quite as solid on trading the ideas. You didn’t like UTA after a technical breakdown it hasn’t stopped going up. CVM now skyrocketing as I write. CGYV “an easy double” yeah not so much. XSEL is starting to get legs and I can’t say anything bad there.
I’m happy I disregarded UTA advice and bought a nice chunk of options that have tripled, paid for with CGYV sales (after an 18 month hold) and today at $1.3 I’ll sell my CVM.
You must be too busy digging up a new idea (which I would love) to be on top of making better trades with current holdings.
Not ripping, just commenting/wondering
Editor: Yes, working on some new ideas. I have a China idea that’s just going to rip. You’re right- haven’t made perfect calls on the trading side, but finding good ideas. Look for a leg up in XSEL soon.
Comment by KO — 9/15/2009 @ 8:40 am
[Buzzer sound] — Wrong! I held mine that cost me 27 cents in spite of your advice. Always believe in two things: 1) following the money; and 2) good science. Never play a horse’s name at the track — know who the horse’s vet is.
Editor: I was wrong about the Mets in ‘69, and the number of times I’ve been wrong is infinite. What a great stock this year. There’s big money still to be made longer term.
Comment by Hpatton — 9/14/2009 @ 2:27 pm
I sold 5000 shares of CVM @ .78 last week and thought you were right on with your forecast. That was until the stock soared again today and hit 1.05. I would have liked to been able to buy when it hit .85, but it happened too fast. Not much money for most investors, but it is for me. LOL Now what are you saying about CVM? BLS
Editor: Latest thoughts were out Monday. Crazy stock, but great. I sold early as well. Who knew.
Comment by Barry L Sheets — 9/14/2009 @ 2:25 pm
stop scaring the ppl
Editor: Nothing scary about a good stock.
Comment by Anonymous — 9/14/2009 @ 10:07 am