Market Summary
| Dow |
12986.80 |
-5.86 |
(-0.05%) |
| Nasdaq |
2528.85 |
-4.88 |
(-0.19%) |
| Russell 2K |
741.17 |
-2.21 |
(-0.30%) |
| S&P 500 |
1425.35 |
+1.78 |
(+0.13%) |
| S&P 100 |
652.15 |
-0.23 |
(-0.04%) |
| Quotes are delayed 20 minutes. |
Current Targets and Stops
| Symbol |
Picked |
ST |
SSL |
| AAPL |
$93.00 |
$225.00 |
$175.00 |
| CPNE |
$0.50 |
$4.50 |
$1.45 |
| CREE |
$25.00 |
$50.00 |
$23.00 |
| EFSF |
$0.18 |
$0.50 |
$0.16 |
| NIHK |
$0.04 |
$0.13 |
$0.08 |
| PNWIF |
$1.80 |
$6.00 |
$3.00 |
| QID |
$38.67 |
$42.19 |
$35.00 |
| SPKL |
$0.69 |
$2.00 |
$0.90 |
| TCGD |
$0.87 |
$2.00 |
$0.65 |
| TTGL |
$0.84 |
$3.00 |
$1.73 |
ST Denotes Suggested Target.
SSL Denotes Suggested Stop Loss.
Free Annual Reports
Current Covered Companies
OTC Blog
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| May 2008 |
| S |
M |
T |
W |
T |
F |
S |
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| 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
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5/16/2008
I’m travelling today and already late for my first meeting, so I can’t give you any real feedback on the NIHK quarterly report.
However, it shouldn’t be that complicated. Revenues are way up, and losses are down. One of the biggest expenses now is dividends on preferred- which is being paid in shares- this could represent more supply for the market to wrestle with, but that’s the price of poker.
I’ll craft more thoughts when I have some time to look at this one. For the time being, I still believe owning this stock is like owning an option that doesn’t expire.
Submit and comments or questions, and I’ll get on it next week.
5/13/2008
SPKL filed its Q1 10Q yesterday afternoon, and the filing really contained no surprises. The market is responding in kind my delivering another quiet day of trading with the stock still trying to get through the $.90 and stick higher than that level.
The top line number was $625k in revs- up from $221k in the same quarter in 2007. That nearly a triple in top line performance- 182% revenue growth to be exact.
The quarter was reflective of exactly what the company has been saying it was doing- investing the $6 million raised at $.85 per share last December into expanding it’s company owned store portfolio.
If you are wondering about the current state of restaurant openings and future openings, here’s a quote directly out of the 10Q:
As of May 3, 2008, we have sold 127 franchises. Of the franchises sold, 31 franchise restaurants are opened and operating, 1 company-built and owned restaurant is open, 5 franchise restaurants have been repurchased by the Company, 6 franchise restaurants are under construction, 2 company restaurants are under construction, 6 franchise sites are under lease negotiation (we have either received an actual lease that is being reviewed or a letter of intent), 1 franchise restaurant closed and 75 franchise sites are subject to area development agreements. An area development agreement is entered into when a franchisee has purchased the rights to a geographic area with a set number of restaurants in that area.
As you can see from this statement, it is very reasonable to expect continued growth from SPKL long out into the future.
At the end of the quarter, SPKL still had about $3.6 million and cash, and no long term debt.
The only real liability on the balance sheet is about $1 million in deferred franchise fees. This debt is really the fuel for growth. This liability is, in fact, the franchisee fess already paid into the company for expansion. It is shown as a liability on the balance sheet until the restaurants represented by the franchisee fees open for business. Then, the liability is converted to revenues as SPKL has fulfilled its obligation to get the store open. As that number goes down, the number of stores goes up. I would like to see the number go up, as that means more franchises have been sold.
As far as losses go, the company lost about $1.5 million, or $.03 per share. I would expect the losses to continue throughout 2008, and improve to a profit or at least cash flow positive in 2009.
New store openings are now picking up, with several on the horizon.
Here’s the current chart:

This is a slightly ascending wedge. The market is just grinding away at that $.90 resistance point. Sooner or later, it is going to break out, and bust north. When it does, it needs to work its way higher than $1, to set up a pattern of higher lows and higher highs.
It’s tough to say where this stock might be in the next two weeks, but the company is proving its worth everyday with new franchise sales and new store openings. If you can see out a year or two, this company should be far more valuable than the current $42 million market value it commands.
There aren’t many fast casual chains growing at this clip. If you’re not a believer yet, go try the food.
4/30/2008
Yesterday, PNIWF announced the COSTCO service had started. So, why wasn’t this market moving? Simple- because everyone already knew it- no surprise there.
Today, PNWIF announced it had entered into a deal with Kodak to expand online photo processing into Australia. This is news. I didn’t know about it.
One would think this is market moving news, but clearly the audience for this stock is not quite paying attention.
They have been kind of dropping the ball on shareholder awareness. Not much has been coming out of PNWIF of late.
Boys- time to ramp up the information flow. Get this darn stock north of $4, jump to NASDAQ SC, and let’s rock from there.
I don’t have time to provide a chart right now, but comments and questions are welcome. This one could be big winner in the second half of 2008 and well into 2009 and beyond.
4/28/2008
FYI- for all those who are following the situation- I bounced out of my CREE options today with about a $1,000 profit on a $5,000 investment in 3 trading days. I am still holding the common. In short, the oversold bounce back trade worked, and I like to jump on the profits in these options when I get them quickly.
4/23/2008
CREE came out with Q1 earnings yesterday after the bell, and the stock is getting killed on the market’s disappointment.
CREE delivered $.07 when the market was looking for $.11. Naturally, the stock is getting murdered.
If you read my March 5th BLOG, you will note I advised the time to really load up would be between $25.00 and $26.30.
Today’s action has taken us to those levels, and so far I have invested in 1,000 more shares of common stock at $26.35, and 25 $25 May Calls at $2.40.
Here’s the chart:

While I’m sure there will be some backing and filling, I’m not going to worry about where we trade in the very short term. As long as the stock hangs in there in the $25 plus range, I’ll hang in there.
If it falls much below $25, I’ll start thinking of either adding to the position, or taking my losses and moving on.
The chart now has a huge, gaping gap from $30 down to $26, and I’m willing to bet my own hard earned cash that gap will be filled over the next couple of months.
While the numbers were a little troubling, owning this stock is a bet on the future of the LED bulb. I believe in it. I think it will become dominant technology over the next few years.
The market always over reacts emotionally in the short term. That’s one plus. Another- Cramer doesn’t like this stock, which in my mind is a huge plus. My BLOGS of late have been saying there is nothing to be done with CREE. Today, there is something to do.
Comments and questions are welcome.
CREE got beat up on a disappointing earnings report. I am pouncing on the stock today as it has fallen back to the perfect technical level in my view.
So far, I have bought 1,000 shares of common stock and 25 call options. More, including chart, in about one hour.
4/16/2008
As you all know, I have been trying to get some info on commercial scheduling, so you can all have an approximate time to turn on the TV and watch the Cinnergen and Cinnechol commercials.
According to this week’s news, it appears the commercials are now being broadcast on Fox News, the Gameshow Network, Discovery Health, and the History Channel, and could eventually be viewed by as many as 300 million households.
I have learned that since we are still in testing phase, the scheduling can change on a moment’s notice. Therefore, the company does not want to publish a schedule at this time. If you were to look for the commercial at a certain time, and it didn’t appear as scheduled, the company is concerned investors will think there is a problem when there isn’t one.
I am informed this testing phase will go on for about thirty days- through the month of April. Once past, the schedule should be more predictable.
In the interim, you can view a couple different versions of the commercial at the respective web sites of the products, or just watch any of the above mentioned networks at your leisure.
Both these web sites appear to be very well done commercial sites. I note this, because there has been some griping in the past about their web presence. Visit www.cinnergendirect.com and/or www.cinnechol.com to view the respective clips.
NIHK finally came out with its long overdue 10k. I don’t quite understand why companies cannot get these things out in a timely manner. Every CEO knows- if their year end is on the calender year, that their numbers are due out by the end of March to be compliant. Then, you can get a two week extension without penalty. If you falter from there, the consequences can include losing your listing.
At the 11.9999th hour, NIHK Doug Saathoff finally delivered, and the news is bringing some life back to the stock.
I am going to have to dig into the financials to come up with some comments on how they are performing. The losses were quite severe, but you have to differentiate between operational losses, and one time cash and non cash expenses associated with the acquisition of the set top box business. Then we can get a feel for the overall health of the business.
I won’t be able to grind through it until later tomorrow, so expect a BLOG on it perhaps Friday with more useful information.
In the interim, of particular note, is the associated press release wherein CEO Saathoff forecasts $10 million in revs this year. If gross margins remain at 23%, this would imply the company will generate $2.3 million to cover costs. And, they expect to turn (dare I say it) profitable by Q4. I don’t know if Mr. Saathoff means cash flow positive or EPS, but I will endeavor to find out.
While the stock hasn’t quite traded 1 million shares yet today, it is finding some support, and looking like it could try to move higher.
More probably on Friday.
4/6/2008
SPKL continues its pattern of trading very poorly on increased volume, and I’m getting a lot of emails with basically two questions- 1. Is there something wrong with the company?, and 2. Is it time to buy yet?
Those of you who have really been following this story know that I am uniquely intimate with this company. In fact, I was instrumental in helping them in the process of choosing to go public, and a lot of the pre public shareholders are personal acquaintances of mine.
Therefore, I can state with a great deal of certainty there has been no fundamental derailment at the company. In fact, just the opposite is true, the company is accelerating on every front- franchise sales, company owned store growth, and real estate acquisition. The only weakness of late has been the vacuum of new store openings in the last three months- This was simple a cycle issue, and new store openings will start to pick up again later this month.
However, the stock has been under pressure of late, and I am choosing to step back and see how low it wants to go. In my view, SPKL has become a victim of the new SEC regs related to shortening up the time frame for 144 filings. It used to be that investors had to hold shares for a year under Rule 144 before they were eligible to become free trading. As of February 15th, the time frame has been shortened to 6 months.
There have been a rash of filings of late, and I believe the recent weakness in the stock is related. I am monitoring the volume as it related to the filings, and will notify everyone when I believe the selling is about done.
In the interim, here’s a look at the current chart:

As you can see, the gap I have been looking for filled on Friday. As such the stock is close to being in position to turn back up. Almost there, but not quite. I would suggest giving it a few more days to a week.
Comments, questions, and in this case, complaints are welcome.
3/29/2008
About a week ago SPKL filed its year end audited financial statement, and this is the first time I’ve had an opportunity to comment on the results.
For those of you who would like to learn more about this rapidly growing fast casual restaurant chain, please go to our information center on the company- you will find every edition and BLOG I’ve ever published on SPKL. You’ll find it at http://www.otcjournal.com/Spicy-Pickle-Franchising-Inc/SPKL/af/profile/
There were no surprises at all in the 10K- it was just as I predicted it would read, which is probably why it was not a market moving event.
The revenue number is pretty small- that’s a reflection of the annual revenues last year being comprised mainly of the royalties of about 8% they collect on each store. In the 10k annual report there were no company owned stores included- which means there were no big top line numbers. Since the end of the year, one company owned store has opened which they built, and 3 have been acquired from franchisees. Two more are under construction right now. The total will be five before too long, which will equate to about $3.5 to $3.8 million in annual sales. Since they delivered $1.2 million in sales for the year, next year is virtually guaranteed to be at least triple that number, but that’s based on where the company is today just from the company owned stores. It’s early in the year. There are many more growth opportunities for the remainder of the year.
The far greater news out of the 2007 numbers is the balance sheet improvements. SPKL finished the year with $5.4 million in cash vs $1.2 million the previous year, and $6.4 million in assets. Thanks to the $5.9 million financing in mid December at $.85 per share, the company finished the year in great shape. The cash will go down in 2008, but the revenues and gross profits will go up as SPKL invests the money in expansion.
Therefore, over the course of 2008, you will see quite dramatic top line percentage improvements, a deterioration of cash on the balance sheet as it is invested, and reduced losses- perhaps even profits by the back half of the year. The company will certainly turn cash flow positive later in the year.
The only negatives I can even come up with on SPKL are the slipping stock price and the temporary vacuum of new store openings.
The company has not opened a new store since the middle of December, but it’s not due to lack of opportunity. As is the case with construction, a few of the properties we thought would be open by now have been hit with delays- construction, permitting, etc. The delays have just about run their course, and 6 or 7 new ones will open over the next couple of months, and there should be a much larger number in the back half of the year.
Current commitments from franchisees have the total number of eventual stores at about 130 now. Just to clarify for those who are confused by the numbers- there are 36 opened and operating today- about 7 or 8 under construction- about the same number with signed leases awaiting the commencement of construction, and another 10 or so leases in various stages of negotiation. That leaves about 75 more stores committed to and paid for to open over the coming years.
On to the technical picture.

This stock began trading publicly in August of ‘07. It was a self underwritten IPO at $.40 per share. After catching fire in the short run, it succumbed to Bear Market selling pressure. Pretty much all technical levels of resistance have given way. My SSL on the stock was $.90, so if you are still in, you should be long term. This is a good choice to be long term in my view.
I believe before the Bear Market is over, the stock could be vulnerable to go back and fill the gap from its very early trading days. That gap is like a vacuum, and nature wants to go back and fill the void.
I know it’s tough to see on the chart, but in order to fill that gap, the stock would have to trade back down to $.71.
If the stock can grind it’s way down there, I believe the trip would be very short lived, as there are a lot of investors following the company and looking for the bottom to get really engaged.
About 2 years ago right now, CEO Marc Geman called me to discuss raising capital. At the time, SPKL had a total of 12 stores open and about 20 franchises sold in all. Today, the number of open stores has gone up 200%- 12 to 36- and the number of franchises sold has gone up 550%- 20 to 130. The growth rate is accelerating because the management is excellent, the concept is strong, the franchisees are making money, and the food is simply great.
I believe SPKL will be a repeat of Commerce Planet (OTC BB: CPNE) with a more positive ending. Long term subscribers will recall I first featured CPNE in 2005 at $1, and it found its way to $2. Then, we had a tough market and the company stumbled- it was $.30 in the Fall of 2006. By the spring of ‘07 the stock was at a high of $3.50- a ten bagger off the bottom of the pullback. They since have sabotaged their own success.
For SPKL it will be deja vu all over again with one main difference- the SPKL business model has far stronger legs. Each of those restaurants is an annuity that can contribute pretty much forever.
I believe this stock is going to $3 or $4 in the next Bull Market. I can’t say when it’s going to be, but I believe it will happen. You have a once in a lifetime opportunity to accumulate this one during the economic slow down. Today, you can pick up the stock at the same level the $6 million December financing was priced at ($.85)- two board members put in $1.4 million of the $6 of their family money. I personally invested $102k out of my Defined Benefit money. Worth noting.
Comments and questions are welcome.
3/25/2008
This will be the first in a new series of daily blogs with some observations about today’s market action, especially as it applies to the current ideas I have in front of subscribers.
Open LEH Puts:
Well, the trade is working well so far. Earlier today I was up $2k on an $8k investment from last Friday, and tempted to lock in. Gave back $500 so far. However, since LEH was down yesterday on a huge up day in the markets, I have no reason to believe the stock is ready to head back up. Some downgrades today from brokerage firms, and they are rumored to be awash in bad mortgage paper. Let’s hang in another day.
VTOK: New Idea
The response to new idea VTOK was pretty anemic. I believe the story is reasonably compelling, but I don’t think the market really gets how big the Amerivon relationship will be. More will come out in the future.
SPKL:
Stock continues to languish on light volume. The company is doing great, but the stock needs a catalyst to get it moving again. They came out with their 10K, so I will do an in depth BLOG on it. Big winner in the next bull market.
EFSF:
Stock firming a little in a pretty brutal micro environment. I like the second test of the lows, and some volume starting to show up. Might get some legs in this one.
PNWIF:
Showing some signs of life today as it is oversold in a news vacuum. Costco services should start soon. Big winner in the next Bull market.
AAPL:
I missed it waiting for the all time bargain basement steal. I don’t believe the volatile madness is over, so might get another chance.
CREE:
In no man’s land. Sticking with my plan. I have my 2k shares in the mid 28’s- will buy more if I see it back in the $25 to $26 range- will sell calls against it in the $30s. Today, nothing to do at $29+.
Overall Market:
After a huge week and a big Monday, the market should be giving some ground, but it’s not. Bullish, but still half the day to go. The environment is finally improving a little, and perhaps the micro will start to show some signs of life before too long.
3/17/2008
EFSF released fiscal Q3 numbers today, and there really isn’t anything but positives in the numbers. I looked, but I can’t find much of anything negative to say.
In fact, the balance sheet improvements are quite remarkable. For a pretty small company only doing about $1 million in annual sales, the balance sheet is great.
As of the end of January, EFSF had no debt, $1.13 million in cash, 428K in receivables, and $1.6 million in prepaid expenses. Guess what the prepaid expenses are? Advertising media buys for the coming campaigns.
On the minus side, you have $100k in payables- big deal. This balance sheet has improved by leaps and bounds in the past year.
There is one minor negative I could find- Shares I&O increased to 180 million from 165 last quarter. This is the price of not being profitable, and raising $1 million in cash. Note the big expense on the income statement for consulting- most of the share increases are built into that number.
On the revenue side - the percentage increases are great, but the top line number is still too low- only $310k for the quarter, which was more than 3 times the same quarter one year ago. Not enough, but the big media campaigns are about to start.

As you can see from the chart, the headlines are driving small stocks down, and EFSF is not immune.
The stock tried to break out above that downtrend line, but couldn’t hold. Might be a great mulligan for those who didn’t participate when it traded up in the past two weeks.
This company is perfectly positioned to launch these Direct Marketing campaigns. It’s starting by the end of the month. If it works, and the market starts behaving better, this one could really pay off from these levels.
3/6/2008
I am posting this BLOG at about 9AM Pacific, Thursday morning. The chart below is hinting at some signs of life for EFSF. By the time you read this, I’m sure it will be later, so I don’t know how the chart will look then.
Here’s the chart:

As you can see, the stock hasn’t been much fun to own for the past year. However, the chart is showing signs of life. The Gap at $.18 from early 2007 has been filled, which is a technical positive, and the stock is trying to break out above a very long term downtrend line.
While the technical picture is finally improving slightly, the real purpose of today’s BLOG is to give you the opportunity to comment on the interview with the Tim O’Leary, the CEO of Respond2.
Here’s what I’d like to know. 1. Did you find the commentary valuable? 2. Do you feel Respond2 is the answer to the sales side of the equation for this company?, and 3. Has hearing the interview changed your viewpoint on the future of EFSF.
Of course, comments and questions on any other EFSF related issues are welcome. Remember, you comment won’t appear until I respond and post it to the site. Check back the next day.
3/5/2008
I published a brief Blog yesterday so everyone would know I jumped into CREE as it finally fell below the $30 level I’ve been patiently waiting for.
I fully expect CREE to be a $50 stock in the not too distant future- perhaps within a year or even less. The LED bulb is going to slowly buy surely replace the incandescent bulb over the coming years as 1. Energy costs go up 2. LED prices come down and 3. Regulatory pressure to discontinue the use of LEDs increases. It has already happened in Europe- Asia is jumping on the bandwagon- the US will follow in kind.
Yesterday, I acquired 2,000 shares in the $28.60 range, and watched the stock rebound. Here’s the chart I as looking at:

As you can see, the 61.8% retracement of the most recent move took us down to $28.40. It rebounded rather quickly, so I was able to buy at about $28.60.
The stock may want to go lower, in which case I will be prepared to pick up a little more, perhaps using options. Here’s the chart I will be looking at if it works much lower:

This chart measures the stock off the November low, which is actually the more powerful chart.
This chart shows the 61.8% retracement at $26.31. If the stock trades down to that level, I will really load up with a tight stop of around $25.
Today’s level as I write this is $28.80- the stock has come back down from yesterday’s late climb, but not all the way to where I own it. However, I believe it is still a good level to jump in. Your choice.
Comments and questions are welcome.
3/4/2008
A little patience pays of. Very quickly- I bought 2,000 CREE today at an average cost of about $28.60 and am bidding for 50 April 30 calls.
I believe it has pulled back to a good risk/reward ratio, but who knows. Could drop to $20 if the market continues to get super ugly- even more ugly than ever.
Chart and more details tomorrow.
3/3/2008
PNWIF came out with its Q1 numbers today- as usual, right up against its reporting deadline in Canada, and way past the deadline the company would have as a US domiciled company. As they now own UK based Pixology, and operate in both the US and Canada, and are now headed to Argentina, I can understand the challenges of putting it all together. However, lots of other International companies do it efficiently, so this is an area that needs improvement.
In short, a quick review of the press release suggests the following: PNIWF gets an A+ for top line growth, a B+ for balance sheet, and a B- for profits.
The top line numbers for the Holiday photo processing business came in at $4.3 million- up from $1.5 million the same quarter in 2006- this is just outstanding growth- the kind of growth the market will pay up for.
On the balance sheet side, PNWIF ended up with about $11 million in cash and receivables, against $7.4 million in current payables-that’s about $3.6 million in real cash- not bad when you factor in the Pixology acquisition.
The company generated about a $1 million loss, but had nearly $1 million in non cash amortization expenses- suggesting the quarter was about a break even from a cash flow point of view. It would have been nice to see a profit, but the company is thinking a bit longer term, and invested a fair amount in R&D- about $1.5 million. Much of this expense can be attributed to the build out for Costco and Sam’s Club.
Here’s a look at the chart:

PNWIF is trading right in the middle of its moderately ascending triangle. That’s what good numbers will get you in today’s market- a stock that doesn’t go down.
Today’s numbers seem to be a non event for the stock price. If you have a long term perspective, $10 might be a realistic target.
Again as with most other stocks I am watching, if you are looking for a short term trade, it will be tough. The market is to blame, not PNWIF- PhotoChannel is moving in a great direction, and these numbers should start getting a lot better - Q4 and Q1 ‘09 (Sept to Dec) should both be big relative to the previous year.
In case you are wondering about the quote- TTGLE has now reverted back to TTGL- with one caveat- the stock has officially lost its bulletin board listing and has been relegated to the Pink Sheets- the land of non reporting companies.
There was no disclosure I am aware of from the company- you just had to figure it out. I hadn’t noticed until one of the OTC Journal faithful pointed it out.
You might wonder what this means. OTC BB companies are fully reporting, just like any DOW component, and have to live up to the same standards of reporting.
TTGL had three violations of tardy financial reporting. The rules state that if you file late three times, you lose your BB status, and go to the Pink Sheets for a period of one year. I believe that if you comply in a timely manner for a year, you can be reinstated.
Pink Sheet companies are not required to file financials. However, in the case of Titan, the company probably will choose to file, and regain its BB status in a year if they don’t screw up again.
I don’t believe it is going to have a major effect on the stock price today- however, if they start doing better, it probably won’t encourage new investors to find them in the Pinks.
The price quote now comes up on Yahoo! at TTLG.PK. TTGL pretty much every where else if you want to keep following it.
The Pickle had held up quite nicely in the face of the current nasty Bear that’s been gnashing its teeth at every non energy non commodity company out there.
Today, the stock finally succumbed to the buyer’s strike, and broke below the ascending triangle which has been forming for the last several months, suggesting the stock wants to go through a corrective phase for the time being.
Here’s a look at today’s chart:

As you can see, the stock has broken down below the support level defined by the descending triangle.
I have been warning the stock was vulnerable for a downside push as it would appear the December financing has brought some sellers with a little market related impatience out of the proverbial woodwork.
I am not concerned about this turn of events as it is my expectation you are going to get some corrective action in most stocks in a Bear Market even if the company is delivering on all fronts.
This break below the support level also coincides quite closely with the 61.8% retracement of the stock’s entire big move from the fall- another technical negative.
In light of the great performance the company is delivering, here are my thoughts. I believe the stock at a very good level for accumulation if you are a long term investor- meaning you are looking for long term capital gains (more than one year).
If you are looking for an oversold trade for a quick move to the upside, I would avoid the stock at this time. There could be more downside work to be done before a bottom is put in.
From here, it will be interesting to find out what level investors find this stock irresistible. I’m guessing somewhere in the $.90 to $1 range.
This move might in fact be healthy for the stock longer term. It will no doubt clean out anyone with short term thinking on SPKL, and leave the stronger, longer term investors as the shareholder pool. We’ll end up in stronger hands when the rebounds start happening.
It’s worth remembering that SPKL is on an expansion tear. It’s also worth remembering that of the $6 million that was raised in December at $.85, $1.4 million came directly from board members.
2/28/2008
NIHK ended a long period of silence today with very significant news- the kind the market should embrace. Apparently, the set top box business is coming along very nicely, and can we start to think about NIHK finally turning profitable?- no, scratch that- cash flow positive in 2008?
In today’s news about the follow on order for 1500 desktops, Doug Saathoff predicts the company will generate $8 million plus in revenues in 2008- this from a company that was barely able to scratch out $1 million in revenues over the past several years.
$8 million in revs should generate about $3 million in gross profits- a number this little company that could has never seen.
Year end numbers will be quite interesting as we will get our first look at the new company balance sheet with the debt associated with the acquisition of the set top box business.
The stock is finally showing a little life today after a few months of very listless trading with a bias to the downside. Pretty much sounds like every microcap stock to me.
Here’s a chart:

As you can see, the stock has been chopped in half going back to October, which is when the Bear Market really started.
Today’s move is very promising technically as it represents a break out above a pretty long term downtrend line.
However, I’m not seeing enough volume for this to really jell into any sort of big move. We’re just not in that kind of market.
For long term shareholders, this is great stuff. It’s faith time- do you have enough faith to believe the fundamentals will eventually turn into much greater volumes in other markets ahead?
If so, this is a great one to accumulate for the next bull market in micros, which might not be all that far out into the future.
Comments and questions are welcome.
2/19/2008
TTGLE is up big today on the heels of Friday’s triple header news releases, which for the most part bode well for shareholders.
If you have been following my suggestion of waiting for positive events to either fully or partially exit your position, today might be a good day to do so.
Big, spiky rises like today’s generally result in some sort of pullback or retraction before higher levels can be attained.
On the plus side, the technical picture could get interesting. If they have the cash, they just might buy back enough shares to make the stock extremely tight and volatile. If that becomes the case, it could trade with dramatic swings in either direction.
Here’s your chart:

Nice rebound for those who had patience. Will probably quiet down from here. Long term, still way to early to call. Their plan to move forward seems reasonable on paper.
More to learn in today’s conference call.
Comments and questions are welcome.
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