American Water Star and WalMart

American Water Star was out with news today that Wal Mart has begun ordering the Hawaiin Tropic line of beverages once again.

While this is certainly welcome news and the stock is bouncing a little, this is not the kind of news the market is looking for to get the stock moving again.

CEO Mohlmanhas projected AMW will achieve $80 to $100 million in sales in ’05. Only about 15% of the sales were expected to come from their branded beverages.

The market is really looking for some hard information concerning where the $80 million in revenues will come from.

In the meantime, the stock is forming a wedge wherin the lows and getting higher and the highs are getting lower. A break to either the upside or the downside is the inevitable conclusion to a chart that looks like this. The longer it extends, the more volatile the break.

I believe it could break to the upside if AMW were to provide some concrete evidence of order flow to the market. Based on today’s reaction, news of orders for branded product from WalMart is not going to do it.

13 thoughts on “American Water Star and WalMart

  1. In theory at least, all the Supercenters across the country have carried the stuff for over six months, so if anything it’s bad news that AMW considers a reorder worthy of a news release. Hey guys, how about some real news – like maybe a date when customers will finally be able to taste these alleged tea and drink mixer products? Or better yet, an announcement of new store chains carrying the AMW merchandise or someone signing on for a copacking deal, perhaps? We’ve heard NOTHING since the last conference call, and this is what AMW considers news? Hey guys, I’ll go buy a couple of six packs to restock my fridge. Alert CNN…

     

    Editor: You should note I did not publish an edition covering the big event. As you point out in a more agressive manner- big deal. A better question might be where’s the beef?

  2. Does anyone know what the SKU number(s) are for these in WalMart? I asked a manager & he knew of the item, but I doubt my request went any further than that… I’d sure like to buy a case locally.

     

    Editor: Your best bet on that question is to contact Don H at the company. donh@americanwaterstar.com or 702-740-7036.

  3. The stock seems to be very consistent in a daily down trend. The fact that the Pres of AMW bought $$$$ of this stock means either 1) he does not know more than us poor (er) outsiders, which would indeed be unfortunate for all or 2) he does now more than us but his conclusions of that infop is wrong. So, OTC Journal has not commented on this company for a while. Any current thoughts?

     

    Editor: I remain very concerned about this stock. The Chairman predicted $80 million in ’05, but the stock is not acting like the market believes it.  The company has given no disclosure as to where $80 million in revenues might come from. Extreme caution is warranted here.

  4. I have searched at least 6 different Super Walmarts in the Midwest and East Coast over the last 8 months and I have yet to be able to find ONE bottle of Hawaiian Tropic. Has anyone out there been able to purchase any of this stuff?????????

     

    Editor: I still have never seen the product in any of the California grocery stores that are supposed to be carrying it. On the other hand, the company has stated the Hawaiian Tropic will be a very small part of this year’s revenue stream. So far, they haven’t disclosed anything about where the $80 million in revenues in 2005 will be coming from, and that is why the stock is doing nothing.

  5. FYI: I just got off the phone with an aquintence. We were discuusing AMW and another another company I mentioned AMW, as, Mr. Mohlman is involved with both companies. He said that Mohlman has been real sick with pnuemonia for the past 2-3 weeks and has hardly made it into the office, if at all. Since he follows the other company and not AMW on a regular basis, he doesn’t know anything about the $80 mil. Just sharing a tidbit.

     

    Editor: Thank you for your contribution. The stock appears to be as sick as the Chairman for the time being.

  6. Recently when I was in Mooresville, NC, I picked up a 6-pack. The flavor was Pineapple Pink Grapefruit and it was FANTASTIC !! But then I tried to find them in Charlotte & Statesville, NC – no luck. I live in St. Louis, MO and have looked at many of them here with no luck. I would love to buy the product and even suggest it to my friends– but we need to know where to buy it !!!!

     

    Editor: I agree with you about the beverage. I love it. If it was easy to get, the stock would probably be $1. However, the future of the company is tied to bottling for others. The company only anticipates that product will represent 10% of its sales.

  7. Where is this stock headed? Any word on sales?? Walmart?

     

    Editor: If you have been following my commentary, you know I am not optimistic about this one. I am waiting to see year end and 1st quarter numbers before final judgement. If they don’t deliver $10 million in the 1st quarter, forget about this one. The company has said nothing in months, and the stock is not behaving as if they are achieving the CEO’s forecast.

  8. One should do a Google search on Roger Mohlman before making any decision on AMW. I wish I hade done so!

     

    Editor: If this is a major issue for you, sell the stock and get out. I haven’t taken this ancient history too seriously. If it was a big problem, they never would have gotten the AMEX listing. If the company achieves $80 million in revs, no one will remember.  If the company continues to struggle, everyone will be talking about it.

  9. I have been looking all over for the Hawaiian Tropic flavored water. I was told that it was being picked up again by the WalMart Super Stores. I live in Michigan and have not found any and I am now in North Carolina. So where is the product?

     

    Editor: Who cares? The company’s entire future is now based on bottling for others. Whatever they do with their own label won’t represent more than 10 to 20% of sales.

  10. I was told that Super WalMart was going to be sellinlg the Hawaiian Tropic flavored water again. I live in Michigan and have been to most of the super WalMarts in our area and it is not there. I am in North Carolina at the present on vacation and have been to 3 super WalMarts here. Where is the product!!!!!!

     

    Editor: It doesn’t matter- the company’s future is based on bottling for others. Their own products won’t even represent 10% of their sales going forward.

  11. Have you talked to the management team of AMW and if so when are they going to complete any required filing with the AMEX so they can begin trading again?

     

    Editor: The recent 8k they filed had some reasonably good information. We know now the losses are going to double for Q1, and Q2 of ’04, but just for issuances of stock. Therefore, it has no effect on cash flow, and it was kinda of already priced in the number of shares I&O. Also, the 8K filing stated the company had until June before the delisting process would become final. So there is hope, but no, I have not talked with the management team. I’m sure every shareholder is already calling them screaming.

  12. A comment from my SCOTTRADE account suggested the possibility of a buy out. Do you have info in that area. Keep up the good work in your columns.

     

    Editor: I have no information of any kind on any thing along those lines.