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Newsletter
October 16, 2004
Volume V, Issue 101
Home Page : www.otcjournal.com
Email Questions or Comments To: editor@otcjournal.com

To OTC Journal Members:

My apologies for an incorrect statement I made at the beginning of Thursday night's edition. In the prologue I stated NTDL was trading solidly in the mid $.30's. As I was writing Thursday's edition the stock was behaving quite nicely and was in the mid '.30s. As has been the pattern in the past, the stock succumbed to selling pressure later in the day, and dropped back down. I failed to notice the change prior to publishing.

Despite the disappointment in NTDL, it has been an outstanding week for shareholders of HYPD and NWKI. HYPD traded over $3 per share Friday, its highest level since last March. NWKI continuing its march up the charts, trading to its highest level since early May on daily increases in volume.

This weekend I am publishing an update on Family Room. I haven't written about the company in quite some time. I am tired of seeing this stock trade so poorly. The company is on fire, but the stock has yet to follow suit. I am hoping long term believers will be rewarded in the near future for their patience.

At the end of today's edition you will find the three charts we picked out of the submissions from members. I hope you see something you like.

Here's an update:
 

Family Room Entertainment (OTC BB: FMLY); 2005 Should Be a Breakout Year

Family Room has not joined the post summer rebound party yet, but it's still early in the game. The best moves generally come after the third week in October. The stock, which started 2004 at $.105, jumped up a little in the first quarter, but has been in the doldrums ever since. It currently trades between $.07 and $.08 as if it were asleep.

As of the end of June there were 87 million shares issued and outstanding, equating to a $6.5 million market valuation. Family Room engaged in several toxic equity financings in 2003, and the dilutive effect of excess supply is being felt in the stock to this day.

FMLY, through wholly owned subsidiary Emmett/Furla Productions, is an independent film producer. The company has produced dozens of movies, most of which went straight to cable. Their revenues have come from producer fees which only amount to several hundred thousand dollars per movie. The upside is in the producer profits the company could make off a hit movie.

Emmett/Furla is beginning to prosper in a meaningful way. In the spring they finished production on Edison, starring Kevin Spacey, Morgan Freeman, Justin Timberlake, and LL Cool J. The film is in post production right now. FMLY is getting ready to show the film to potential distributors. The film should show up in movie theaters in the late Spring or early Summer of next year. If the film eclipses $40 million at the box office, FMLY stands to make substantial money from producer profits.

88 minutes, starring Al Pacino, is scheduled to begin production in January. This film is a major breakthrough for the company. For the first time in the history, Family Room will have box office bonuses. In the past, Family Room has only had a percentage of the producer profits, which can be an elusive result. On this film, Family Room will have bonus payments as the film hits certain box office performance levels. No profit calculation is required. Therefore, the upside for shareholders on this one is much enhanced.

Friday, after the market closed, Family Room announced it will begin production on another Steven Seagal movie. They just wrapped up production on one Seagal movie, and are already beginning work on another.

They are currently producing a previously undisclosed movie starring Snoop Dog- details to be disclosed at a future time. Family Room has not publicized the film, but it has been reported on in Variety.

Family Room expects to go into production on approximately seven new movies in the first half of 2005. These projects have not been formally announced. Several have scripts, budgets, and directors. Commitments are being solicited from the prospective cast members, and the names being discussed take the company to a whole new level.

The American Film Markets Convention takes place the first week of November. At the convention, Family Room will be disclosing the number and scope of the films it plans to produce in the first half of 2005. We will then learn the details of 2005's calendar.

The chart you see tracks the performance of FMLY in 2004. The formation is known as a "Regression Channel". This stock needs to reverse course and break out of this long term bearish regression channel. A solid break above the blue line would be very bullish.

I believe three factors are working in our favor. First, the toxic supply of stock which has been plaguing this particular issue has been mostly absorbed by the market. Volume like we had in the first quarter should send the stock back up. The caveat- there have been technical disappointments in the past and my track record is poor on this stock.

Second, the size, scope, and talent associated with the slate of new films scheduled for next year should bring some interest to the stock. 

Third, FMLY has publicly stated it will turn cash flow positive off operations from producer fees alone in fiscal 2005 (it started July 1). This means the company doesn't need to engage in any more toxic financings.

In short, I believe long suffering shareholders are on the brink of seeing a recovery.  For you penny stock lovers, look for FMLY to follow the likes of NWKI, VTSI, and HYPD over the next month.


Here are the three charts we liked the most which were submitted by members. There were many great ideas. There were a number of truly undervalued situations, but we were only looking at the technical picture. If you like any of these do your own research on the fundamentals. We won't be publishing any follow ups.

Thanks to RD for this idea. GRMN is a value play in a growing space. Garmin Ltd. is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and marketing of navigation, communications and information devices, most of which are enabled by Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. Pretty promising sector going forward. Relative strength, volume and other chart technicals lends one to believe the stock has room to go for a while. The stock hit a high of almost $60 back in Jan. of 04 and then sold off aggressively over the May/June correction. The stock is in a nice rebound and trying to head for that old high.

I lost track of who submitted this idea, but I like this chart, so many thanks. IIP is a speculative penny stock play that seems to be in the process of bottoming. Traded over $2.50 in the beginning of the year, but sold off to just below $.50 cents in late August. The bottoming pattern looks good and could be a nice winner if it can continue its current trend. The company provides high-performance managed Internet connectivity solutions to business customers requiring guaranteed network availability and high-performance levels for business-critical applications such as e-commerce, video and audio streaming, voice-over Internet protocol (VoIP), virtual private networks and supply chain management.

Dan submitted this idea. NAT stock has had a great run with no retreat in sight. Wouldn't suggest chasing it, but a potentially great trade on the pullbacks. The stock continues to make new highs, but buyer beware if the various oil related sectors start to come off. Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited (Nordic) is engaged in acquiring, disposing, owning, leasing and chartering three double hull Suezmax oil tankers (the Vessels).



 
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The OTCjournal.com Newsletter is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected  publicly traded companies. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward  maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.  Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from certain of the companies which it features.  Likewise, this newsletter is owned by MarketByte, LLC.  To the degrees enumerated herein,  this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent publication.

Go Here to view our compensation on every company we have ever covered, or visit the following web address:  http://www.otcjournal.com/disclaimer.html for our full profiles and http://www.otcjournal.com/trading-alerts/disclaimer.html for Trading Alerts. MarketByte LLC has been paid a fee of $25,000 by Family Room Entertainment for coverage through January 31, 2003. An additional 150,000 free trading shares have been paid by a third party. On February 1, 2003, Family Room extended its contract with MarketByte LLC for coverage through the remainder of 2003 for a fee of $30,000 in cash and 300,000 shares of restricted stock. In December 2003, Family Room extended its contract with MarketByte LLC through 2004 for an additional 2 million shares of newly issued, restricted common stock. The 2.3 million shares are now registered and free trading. On June 6, 2004, Family Room extended the contract in return for an additoinal 1 million restricted shares. The aforementioned shares are now free trading due to an effective registration statement. Please review our policy on selling shares found within the Mission Statement on our home page.

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