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To
OTC Journal Members:
My apologies for an incorrect statement
I made at the beginning of Thursday night's edition. In the prologue I
stated NTDL was trading solidly in the mid $.30's. As I was writing
Thursday's edition the stock was behaving quite nicely and was in the mid
'.30s. As has been the pattern in the past, the stock succumbed to selling
pressure later in the day, and dropped back down. I failed to notice the
change prior to publishing.
Despite the disappointment in NTDL,
it has been an outstanding week for shareholders of HYPD and NWKI.
HYPD traded over $3 per share Friday, its highest level since
last March. NWKI continuing its march up the charts, trading to
its highest level since early May on daily increases in volume.
This weekend I am publishing an update
on Family Room. I haven't written about the company in quite some
time. I am tired of seeing this stock trade so poorly. The company is on
fire, but the stock has yet to follow suit. I am hoping long term believers
will be rewarded in the near future for their patience.
At the end of today's edition you
will find the three charts we picked out of the submissions from members.
I hope you see something you like.
Here's an update:
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Family Room
Entertainment (OTC BB: FMLY); 2005 Should Be a Breakout Year |
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Family Room has not joined
the post summer rebound party yet, but it's still early in the game. The
best moves generally come after the third week in October. The stock, which
started 2004 at $.105, jumped up a little in the first quarter, but has
been in the doldrums ever since. It currently trades between $.07 and $.08
as if it were asleep.
As of the end of June there were
87 million shares issued and outstanding, equating to a $6.5 million market
valuation. Family Room engaged in several toxic equity financings
in 2003, and the dilutive effect of excess supply is being felt in the
stock to this day.
FMLY, through wholly owned
subsidiary Emmett/Furla Productions, is an independent film producer. The
company has produced dozens of movies, most of which went straight to cable.
Their revenues have come from producer fees which only amount to several
hundred thousand dollars per movie. The upside is in the producer profits
the company could make off a hit movie.
Emmett/Furla is beginning to prosper
in a meaningful way. In the spring they finished production on Edison,
starring Kevin Spacey, Morgan Freeman, Justin Timberlake, and LL Cool
J. The film is in post production right now. FMLY is getting
ready to show the film to potential distributors. The film should show
up in movie theaters in the late Spring or early Summer of next year. If
the film eclipses $40 million at the box office, FMLY stands to
make substantial money from producer profits.
88 minutes, starring
Al
Pacino, is scheduled to begin production in January. This film is a
major breakthrough for the company. For the first time in the history,
Family
Room will have box office bonuses. In the past, Family Room
has only had a percentage of the producer profits, which can be an elusive
result. On this film, Family Room will have bonus payments as the
film hits certain box office performance levels. No profit calculation
is required. Therefore, the upside for shareholders on this one is much
enhanced.
Friday, after the market closed,
Family
Room announced it will begin production on another Steven Seagal
movie. They just wrapped up production on one Seagal movie, and are already
beginning work on another.
They are currently producing a previously
undisclosed movie starring Snoop Dog- details to be disclosed at a future
time. Family Room has not publicized the film, but it has been reported
on in Variety.
Family Room expects to go
into production on approximately seven new movies in the first half of
2005. These projects have not been formally announced. Several have scripts,
budgets, and directors. Commitments are being solicited from the prospective
cast members, and the names being discussed take the company to a whole
new level.
The American Film Markets Convention
takes
place the first week of November. At the convention, Family Room
will be disclosing the number and scope of the films it plans to produce
in the first half of 2005. We will then learn the details of 2005's calendar.
The chart you see tracks the performance
of FMLY in 2004. The formation is known as a "Regression Channel".
This stock needs to reverse course and break out of this long term bearish
regression channel. A solid break above the blue line would be very bullish.
I believe three factors are working
in our favor. First, the toxic supply of stock which has been plaguing
this particular issue has been mostly absorbed by the market. Volume like
we had in the first quarter should send the stock back up. The caveat-
there have been technical disappointments in the past and my track record
is poor on this stock.
Second, the size, scope, and talent
associated with the slate of new films scheduled for next year should bring
some interest to the stock.
Third, FMLY has publicly stated
it will turn cash flow positive off operations from producer fees alone
in fiscal 2005 (it started July 1). This means the company doesn't need
to engage in any more toxic financings.
In short, I believe long suffering
shareholders are on the brink of seeing a recovery. For you penny
stock lovers, look for FMLY to follow the likes of NWKI, VTSI,
and HYPD over the next month.
Here are the three charts we liked
the most which were submitted by members. There were many great ideas.
There were a number of truly undervalued situations, but we were only looking
at the technical picture. If you like any of these do your own research
on the fundamentals. We won't be publishing any follow ups.
Thanks to RD for this idea.
GRMN
is a value play in a growing space. Garmin Ltd. is engaged in the
design, development, manufacturing and marketing of navigation, communications
and information devices, most of which are enabled by Global Positioning
System (GPS) technology. Pretty promising sector going forward. Relative
strength, volume and other chart technicals lends one to believe the stock
has room to go for a while. The stock hit a high of almost $60 back in
Jan. of 04 and then sold off aggressively over the May/June correction.
The stock is in a nice rebound and trying to head for that old high.
I lost track of who submitted this
idea, but I like this chart, so many thanks. IIP is a speculative
penny stock play that seems to be in the process of bottoming. Traded over
$2.50 in the beginning of the year, but sold off to just below $.50 cents
in late August. The bottoming pattern looks good and could be a nice winner
if it can continue its current trend. The company provides high-performance
managed Internet connectivity solutions to business customers requiring
guaranteed network availability and high-performance levels for business-critical
applications such as e-commerce, video and audio streaming, voice-over
Internet protocol (VoIP), virtual private networks and supply chain management.
Dan submitted this idea. NAT
stock has had a great run with no retreat in sight. Wouldn't suggest chasing
it, but a potentially great trade on the pullbacks. The stock continues
to make new highs, but buyer beware if the various oil related sectors
start to come off. Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited (Nordic) is
engaged in acquiring, disposing, owning, leasing and chartering three double
hull Suezmax oil tankers (the Vessels).
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