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Bush's Big Bet-
Both Sides of the Story on War With Iraq |
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At long last the most anticipated
international conflict of all time is set to get started. President Bush
announced on Monday evening Saddam Hussein and his sons had 48 hours to
get out of Iraq. This statement did nothing to mitigate Bush's cowboy image
on the International political scene as it sounded like Wyatt Earp telling
the bad guy he had 48 hours to get out of Dodge.
Most recognize the purpose of the
statement was to forewarn UN representatives, embassy workers, media, and
any other non Iraqi visitors to get out of harms way before the shooting
started.
This war is historically unprecedented
as it represents the first unprovoked attack on foreign soil in the history
of the United States. Also unprecedented is the extreme international backlash
against this war from long term allies Germany, France, and Russia. The
underlying reason for their opposition is not being covered by the media,
and we will disclose it to you today. Whether you agree or disagree with
President Bush, most veteran political observers agree Bush's grade in
the international diplomacy class is an F.
We have spent the last several weeks
studying the issue of this war, and now offer up an edition covering both
sides of the story. The OTC Journal is not taking a position for
or against the war. That is a political issue and outside the theme of
this publication. We are for the stock market and hopeful putting the uncertainty
of the event behind us will lead to a resurgence of economic activity,
a growing economy, and a rebirth of a Bull Market. Since last Thursday
the market has enthusiastically demonstrated it support for the removal
of uncertainty as equity indexes rocketed up the charts, but ultimately
the market will return to the sobering influence of a very weak economy.
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Argument
For War |
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Three key points in favor of war:
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Eradication of a despicable despot
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Deterrent to other terrorist sponsors
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stabilization of oil prices and potential
increase in supply
Eradication of a Despicable Dictator
Saddam Hussein is in fact an easy
target for the United States. Regardless of international rhetoric, the
world knows Saddam Hussein does possess weapons of mass destruction which
include biological and chemical weapons. Everyone knows Iraq does not have
a nuclear bomb.
Over the years Saddam Hussein has
attacked neighbors Iran and Kuwait. He has murdered, tortured, and raped
millions of his own people. He has ruthlessly and violently squashed any
voice of opposition within his country. He has committed genocide against
various ethnic groups within his own borders.
Most agree it is a truly humanitarian
act to rid the Iraqi people of Saddam Hussein and his henchmen. Undoubtedly
there will be collateral damage to innocent Iraqi citizens, but weighed
against the removal of this dictator it will save lives in the long term.
In short, the United States will be performing a significant humanitarian
service to the world to eradicate this despot. Despite rhetoric to the
contrary, even the Arab world knows it. Therefore, he is an easy target.
Most in the US believe the removal
of Saddam Hussein will strike at the heart of Al Queda sponsored terrorism.
This is not true. In fact, the terrorist threat to the US is fueled by
Muslim extremists. Saddam Hussein is not a Muslim extremist. His deputy
foreign minister Tariq Azziz is Christian. Al Queda and Saddam Hussein
do not like each other and don't work together.
Deterrent to Terrorism
However, many believe the swift removal
of a dictator with alleged ties to terrorism by an overwhelming US force
could send a deterrent signal to the other countries who are harboring
and supporting terrorism. Many in the Muslim world are sympathetic to the
Al Queda cause. There is compelling evidence to suggest funding for terrorism
has come out of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran, Syria, and Libya. It is believed
terrorist training facilities could be in any or all of these countries.
The current regimes might not be
willing to incur the wrath of the United States after a demonstration of
our resolve to attack our perceived enemies. People generally act in their
own best interests, and the regimes in the foreign countries who currently
support terrorism could reevaluate the risks of supporting terrorism within
their own countries. In the past the penalty has been UN sanctions. The
invasion of Iraq will raise the stakes to loss of country, power, and potentially
their own life as the US is not only demonstrating it has the willingness
to invade sovereign soil of perceived enemies, it also has the manpower
and weapons in the region.
Stabilization of Oil Prices and
Potential Increase in Supply
Another positive outcome for US citizens
could be the stabilization of crude oil supplies and prices. It is widely
know that Iraq and Iran jointly have greater oil reserves than Saudi Arabia.
Most of Iraq's income stems from oil production, and 80% of the oil they
produce indirectly finds its way to the United States.
Major oil companies have been reluctant
to invest capital in building oil producing infrastructure in Iraq due
to the risks associated with the dictatorial regime. However, with a new
and stable democratic government in place, one would expect major multi
national oil companies to make significant investments, thereby increasing
international supplies and reducing prices.
Bush and Cheney both have their business
roots in big oil, and detractors are screaming about the self serving nature
of the invasion. These same detractors are quick to point out that Ken
Lay, former Chairman of Enron, is not is jail and probably should be.
Nevertheless, you cannot argue that
consistent flows of lower priced oil will help enhance US security and
prosperity.
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Arguments
Against the War |
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The Bush Administration's decision
to invade Iraq signals an unprecedented change in US foreign policy. In
essence, George Bush is saying he has decided to put US interests above
the interests of the International community, which has never been our
policy in the past. This major policy shift has the International community
very nervous.
Key arguments against the war include:
-
Iraq is no real threat
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Action could galvanize Muslim world
against us and foster a surge of terrorist activity
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Why this UN Resolution?
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Invasion sends wrong message to adversaries
with nuclear weapons
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International Community concerned about
balance of power
Iraq Is No Real Threat
Despite the Bush rhetoric focused
on Iraq as a threat to US security, there is no factual basis to support
this claim. Iraq has never demonstrated any interest in threatening the
United States, and there is no reason to believe Saddam Hussein plans to
use his weapons of mass destruction against the US.
Saddam Hussein has a history of attacking
his neighbors. In the 1991 Gulf War, Hussein attacked Kuwait, not the US.
He believed the Kuwaitis were drilling horizontally under their borders
in an effort to pirate Iraqi owned oil.
Saddam Hussein has also attacked
neighboring Iran, only to be repulsed. He has also attacked his own people,
but historically has never shown much interest in venturing far past his
borders. Most feel his weapons of mass destruction are for use against
his own people and his neighbors, not for terrorism or sale. After all,
he has plenty of money from oil.
There is no conclusive evidence which
ties Saddam Hussein to Al Queda. In fact, those who understand the Middle
East recognize that radical Muslim Fundamentalist hate Saddam Hussein as
his dictatorship is not based on religious beliefs. The argument that Iraq
is a threat to the US is not taken seriously by the International community.
Action Could Galvanize the Muslim
World Against Us and Foster a New Surge of Terrorist Activity
Nothing can bring enemies together
more quickly than a looming common enemy. One of the risks associated with
our invasion of Iraq is the real possibility that this action could galvanize
the entire Muslim world against us. Former bickering factions with the
terrorist community could now become united with a common goal- terrorize
the United States in any way possible.
The media is reporting that terrorist
organizations are already using the war with Iraq as a recruiting tool,
and young Muslims are signing up for the Jihad in alarming numbers.
The United States is in a high state
of alert in preparation for the war and the expectation our invasion could
spark a new wave of terrorist activities.
Why This Resolution?
President Bush's legal justification
for the invasion of Iraq is the enforcement of UN Resolution 1441 which
requires Iraq to rid itself of its weapons of mass destruction.
Did you know that there are 81 other
UN Resolutions which have never been enforced, many of which concern the
activities of Israel? The international community doesn't understand why
Bush has chosen this resolution to enforce. Many feel his motives are solely
associated with his long standing relationship with big oil. They believe
Bush wants to virtually steal Iraqi oil reserves for the benefit of his
buddies, using US security and the demands of the UN as the excuse.
Invasion Sends Wrong Message to
Adversaries With Nuclear Weapons
Iraq may more notable for the weapons
of mass destruction that it doesn't have, rather than the weapons it does
have.
Nobody believes Iraq has nuclear
weapons, and this is a key focus of the geopolitical community. Many people
believe the selection of Iraq as a target of US aggression sends the wrong
message to renegade nations and terrorist organizations.
The Question- What does Pakistan
and North Korea have that Iraq does not have?- Answer- nuclear weapons.
What does Iraq have that Pakistan and Korea do not have?- Answer- Oil.
There is major concern the invasion
of Iraq sends a message to renegade nations and terrorist organizations
everywhere that if you have nuclear weapons, you are exempt from US aggression.
Furthermore, as a terrorist organization,
in order to survive, you must have a nuclear weapon. So where would you
get one? 80% of the GDP in Pakistan and most of the economic activity in
North Korea centers around military development. North Korea in particular
is viewed as a potential source of all kinds of weapons for terrorist organization
as the country is starving and bankrupt without arms sales. There is no
rhetoric about invading either of these countries, and the wrong people
are taking note.
International Community Concerned
about Balance of Power
One of the key reasons France, Germany,
and Russia are so vehemently opposed to this war centers around balance
of power issues.
There were two worldwide superpowers
until the Cold War ended with the demise of communism. Smaller countries
were content to sit on the sidelines as the two superpowers balanced each
other out.
Today there is only one superpower,
and it is the United States. Other nations, including France, Germany,
and Russia simply don't like knowing the one superpower on the planet is
prepared to invade lesser foes on its own whim.
Historically, every time the balance
of power shifted dramatically in favor of one entity, the entity eventually
had to be destroyed before it achieved world wide domination. This goes
back to Alexander the Great, the Roman Empire, Napoleon, and Hitler.
This worldwide perception of the
US as an aggressive superpower, out only for its own ends, is the reason
many diplomats want to wait for a stronger consensus before of nations
before launching an invasion. The image of the US as an out of control
super power in conquest of many lesser nations does not sit will with the
International political community.
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Conclusion |
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George Bush is taking a very risky
high gamble on war with Iraq. Pray for a blackjack or 7 on the dice.
If we get through the war with no
destruction of Iraqi oil fields and our victory acts as a deterrent to
other terrorist activities, George Bush will go down in history as a visionary
and hero. Furthermore, if the US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq leads
to more stability in the Middle East, the world will respect George Bush.
With the die cast it is not surprising
France has offered to join the alliance. France, Germany, and Russia were
all vocal in their opposition of the invasion. However, offering to help
out after the decision has been made is a no risk proposition. If it goes
well, they will be on board. If it goes poorly, they can say "I told you
so".
On the other hand, if oil fields
blow up, oil prices rise, terrorist organizations have a banner recruiting
year, Muslims everywhere hate the United States, and the Middle East explodes
in violence, George Bush will probably be a one term President.
Our economy has been badly damaged
by the uncertainty associated with this pending war. We can only hope the
final resolution leads to a six month period when we can all get back to
business without 911, Enronitis, and imminent war. The market has cast
its vote against uncertainty- stocks up, oil and bonds down. We could use
a lot more of the same.
Winning the war quickly is a foregone
conclusion despite the fact our military will face 200,000 Republican Guard
troops armed with Russian made tanks hunkered down in Baghdad, and an anemic
air force flying French fighter planes.
One thing is certain- If you are
watching the war on TV and you go to the microwave for your popcorn, you
might miss the whole thing. It's not about the war- it's about what happens
in the aftermath.
Your comments are welcome
for the Members' Forum. We will publish comments representative
of many we receive. Please email info@otcjournal.com,
and keep your comments brief- preferably down to two paragraphs.
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