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Geithner Gets Bronx Cheer
From Market: XLF Trade Sabotaged |
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The market gave Geithner's long awaited
"plan" the Bronx Cheer to the tune of 5% losses across the board. If you
don't know what the Bronx cheer is, consider how Yankee fans might treat
A Rod (or A Roids) right now. Our new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner,
is now officially a resident of the OTC Journal Dog House.
Geithner's highly anticipated plan
turned out to be no plan at all. He spent quite a bit of his time recounting
the mistakes of the past, and everyone is sick of hearing it. There were
no details on "Mark to the Market". There was no well thought out plan
for a pricing system, and only a vague reference to a "Bad Bank" that would
aggregate bad assets.
My thesis on a surge in the XLF
was sabotaged by more government incompetence. Such is life. However, for
the XLF trade, the outcome wasn't so terrible. In short, we simply
pulled back to my entry level of $9, and we're now rebounding
again.
Probably time to consider buying
again. It was a classic "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" market. The
next "rumor" that could send the market higher would be a compromise bill
from the House and Senate the President would sign. Perhaps that could
be followed by a real plan to unwind the lock up in the financial system.
Can I be optimistic, but have no faith at the same time?
On the plus side, the S&P 500
has been trapped in this range of 800 to 860. If 830 holds, we are setting
up a pattern of higher lows. Now, we just have to break through the 860
level for a shot at 900.
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Spicy Pickle (OTC BB: SPKL):
The Reports of Its Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated |
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Blown out, buried, and forgotten.
These are the small stocks you can make money on, as a little bit of enthsiasm,
coupled with a little bit of buying, and restore some of these issues to
more reasonable levels.
Spicy Pickle was out with
a shareholder update this morning, and the news coming out of the company
is rather neutral. Here's what I mean by neutral- the recession is clearly
having an impact on their current operations and expansion plans, but they
have battoned down the hatches and are weathering the storm as the positives
and negatives are about equal.
Clearly, the company is not going
to expand in 2009 nearly as rapidly as it did in 2007 and 2008. Potential
franchisees simply cannot get financing domestically.
In the case of SPKL, it would
appear the bad stuff going on about equals the good stuff going on. Some
US stores have closed. Others are opening. Franchisees are still seeking
new spaces. Revenues at the store level have rebounded from the October
to December shock.
On the Canadian side with Bread
Garden Urban Cafes- all is well. Expansion continues with no corresponding
contraction. The Canadian financial system is not frozen up like ours.
There will be a new Bread Garden in the Vancouver airport
in time for the 2010 Winter Olympic games. There will be a new Bread
Garden in the new Canadian Broadcasting Building in downtown Vancouver.
The chain continues to expand and function very well.
Here's what I consider the best news-
the company has pared down it's overhead considerably to sync a little
better with cash flow. Consider the history. Into the first half of '08,
SPKL
was
in rapid expansion mode, and needed a fairly robust infrastructure to handle
the growth. Then, the bottom fell out, and the world came to an end. Expansion
ground to a halt- franchisees simply have no access to capital in the US.
The company has spent the last six
months paring down the infrastructure in concert with lessening demand
for expansion. In short, they are learning to live on the royalty income
stream from the existing stores, there will be moderate expansion in 2009,
and it should pick up from here.
SPKL is positioning itself
to come out of the other end of this recession and get back on the expansion
train. What about the stock? Well- Blow up and blown out pretty well describes
it.
Clearly, pretty all the shareholders
who wanted to sell have done so. As the stocks price starts to improve,
I'm sure a few more folks will choose to get out.
However, this stock is probably poised
for a nice rebound as investors start to understand the company has responded
to this new primeval environment, and is still going to enjoy some expansion
this year. Check out the blue uptrend line that has been forming on this
weekly chart. The stock is making a kind of "stealth" move.
EFSF is our template- out
of nowhere, the stock trades for $.03 to $.10- a lay down triple for those
with the courage to buy when the outlook was most bleak. Has EFSF
made tremendous fundamental progress? Hardly. The stock was simply ready
to rebound on any sign of good news.
Consider SPKL is now trading
just North of 10% of its all time high. About 85% of its value from the
Fall of '07 has been shed. It's been quiet- kind of drifting up on light
volume without the pressure of year end tax selling. It's in a stealth
uptrend.
I don't want to miss another EFSF.
I believe SPKL is a great speculative buy right now, looking for
a repeat of the EFSF experience. Perhaps it's not ready to triple
in value, but a rebound in the the low to mid $.30's might be in the cards.
Here is the complete text of today's
SPKL
news for your review:
| Press Release Source:
Spicy Pickle Franchising, Inc.
Spicy Pickle 2009
Corporate Update
Wednesday February 11,
2009, 12:45 pm EST
DENVER, CO--(MARKET WIRE)--Feb
11, 2009 -- Spicy Pickle Franchising, Inc. (OTC BB:SPKL.OB - News), fast
casual restaurants serving all natural premium meat and poultry and other
fresh products, provides this update on current business activity in both
its Spicy Pickle and Bread Garden Urban Café chains.
Development has slowed
considerably for the Spicy Pickle chain in the United States, but some
expansion possibilities continue to exist. Bank financing for new franchise
opportunities is simply not available in the current climate, and expansion
will continue to be limited until capital becomes more readily available.
The following is a summary
of existing expansion possibilities for the remainder of 2009 and possibly
into 2010:
-- Our Houston
franchisee has signed a lease for their first site and is
actively
pursuing additional locations. The first site will open in the
spring
of this year.
-- Our Las Vegas
franchisee is finalizing lease negotiations for a second
location.
-- After a long
negotiation our San Antonio franchisee terminated their
first
lease when the landlord refused to accept the previously agreed to
terms,
and is actively looking again for a first location.
-- Our Los Angeles
franchisee continues to seek a first location for this
market.
-- The Naperville,
Illinois franchisee has signed a lease and has
architectural
drawings underway for the location which will open in the
late
spring.
-- The Chicago
location in Lincoln Park, which was a Company-owned
restaurant,
was sold to a new franchisee, and they are now operating that
location
with improved sales due to the local ownership.
-- The restaurant
that closed in Sioux Falls, South Dakota is still in an
operational
state, and an interested party is negotiating with the bank and
landlord
to reopen the location if their offer is accepted.
-- A new franchisee
in the Denver area is in training and plans to
relocate
an existing restaurant that will offer a breakfast grab & go menu
due
to its location near the light rail, which is Denver's commuter rail
system.
2009 Contraction Development
and Possibilities Include the Following:
-- The franchisee
in Indianapolis has ceased operations and will not
continue
with any further development.
-- The franchisee
in San Diego has slowed development and will not move
forward
with any additional new restaurant locations for the time being.
Currently,
there are two stores operating in the San Diego area.
-- The New York
franchisee is working on an agreement to terminate their
tenancy
and close the restaurant due to its proximity to the Wall Street
financial
district, and is looking to possibly transfer to another location
on
Long Island.
-- One store in
Colorado Springs has closed as a result of layoffs in its
immediate
vicinity.
The Bread Garden Urban
Café chain in Vancouver is not experiencing the same credit barriers
to expansion, and is therefore positioned for more rapid expansion. The
following is a list of Bread Garden activity in the Vancouver area:
-- A new Bread
Garden Urban Café will open at the University of British
Columbia
no later than mid March.
-- A new space
will be ready for occupancy in the Vancouver airport this
spring,
and is expected to open July 1, 2009 in time for the 2010 Winter
Olympic
Games.
-- The concession
for the Kamloops Airport in British Columbia has been
obtained,
and the existing restaurant will be converted starting May 1,
2009
into a Bread Garden Urban Café.
-- The Bread Garden
Urban Café in North Vancouver has closed and was
replaced
by the drive through location in nearby Cloverdale previously
announced.
-- Bread Garden
has signed a lease for the new Canadian Broadcasting
Company
Building located in downtown Vancouver which will be ready for
delivery
this spring.
-- We have also
signed a lease at Davie and Hornby streets. Construction
will
be getting under way upon delivery to us on May 1, 2009.
The Bread Garden Urban
Café chain continues to grow. Existing restaurants are upgrading
and refreshing their menu items.
Corporate Overview
Commercial real estate
prices have come down substantially, which bodes well for the long term
profitability of future franchisees. Those with the financial strength
to move forward are now in a position to negotiate very favorable terms
in prime locations. The lack of financing for current and potential franchisees
continues to be a roadblock to more rapid expansion and new franchise sales.
If the new stimulus package
is enacted by Congress and financing becomes more readily available at
the local level we could return to the previous growth levels we enjoyed
over the past few years. In the meantime we continue to negotiate the best
food costs we can while still maintaining our standard of delivering healthy
and natural products without preservatives, MSG, additives, extenders or
artificial colors or flavor. We are working on menu design that will provide
choices to consumers of combinations and products that provide the same
quality food but at prices that reflect the value that most consumers in
the US are looking for today.
At the corporate level
we continue to crunch numbers to reduce overhead. This included layoffs
in the last part of 2008, restricted travel budgets, and other cost savings
measures that reduce overhead but still leave the core infrastructure in
place.
Our same store sales
for 2008 compared to 2007 were basically flat, down only .02%. However
4th quarter sales were down 8.8%, reflecting the terrible fourth quarter
for retail in general. Our sales statistics calculate sales net of sales
taxes, comps and discounts and are not the only measure of performance
and may not be comparable to other sales figures used by other companies.
Additionally 20 restaurants opened during 2007 alone and therefore are
not included in the yearly same store sales statistics. In our system we
are much more focused on individual restaurants and cost control and marketing
efforts at the local level that will establish the franchisee in his territory
for the long run. Although times are obviously difficult for almost everyone
we believe that times like these are also an opportunity to work hard and
establish a foothold for better times ahead.
Marc Geman, CEO of Spicy
Pickle Franchising, Inc., stated, "These economic times are bringing a
lot of changes. Like most restaurants and other retail operations we are,
for the first time in history, managing through a period of declining sales.
Retail businesses in general will continue to struggle until consumer confidence
returns. In our system many of our franchisees are working harder and more
creatively to enhance sales and catering opportunities. We are working
on efficiencies in the distribution system, store design, operations and
other areas to bring costs down.
"We have reduced the
start-up costs for the restaurants going into construction and have reduced
labor costs by reorganizing the kitchen line. The new designs have been
tested in one of our corporate restaurants in Denver and we will continue
to build in efficiencies that will enhance margins to help offset lowered
revenue expectations while maintaining excellent customer service."
Currently, there are
50 Spicy Pickle and Bread Garden Urban Café restaurants operating
in British Columbia and 13 different states.
Our investors and shareholders
are always welcome to call or write in for additional information.
About Spicy Pickle(TM):
Founded in 1999, Spicy
Pickle Franchising, Inc. (OTC BB:SPKL.OB - News) serves high quality meats
and fine artisan breads, baked fresh daily, along with a wide choice of
eight different cheeses, twenty-two different toppings, and fourteen proprietary
spreads to create healthy and delicious panini and sub sandwiches with
flavors from around the world. As a leading "fast-casual" concept, Spicy
Pickle offers menu items that are far beyond traditional fast food but
without the price point of casual dining. The hallmark of a Spicy Pickle®
restaurant is quality, service and an enjoyable atmosphere. The company
is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, with restaurants open or under construction
across 13 states and more in development nationwide. Spicy Pickle Franchising,
Inc. also operates as franchisor for Bread Garden Urban Cafés, a
concept with restaurants in the metropolitan Vancouver, Canada area. Bread
Garden Urban Cafés serve coffee, pastries and breakfast items as
well as lunch and dinner along with a wide variety of desserts. To find
out more about Spicy Pickle (OTC BB:SPKL.OB - News), visit our website
at www.spicypickle.com/.
Forward-Looking Statements:
Certain statements in
this press release, including statements regarding the number of restaurants
we intend to open, are forward-looking statements. We use words such as
"anticipate," "believe," "could," "should," "estimate," "expect," "intend,"
"may," "predict," "project," "target," and similar terms and phrases, including
references to assumptions, to identify forward-looking statements. The
forward-looking statements in this press release are based on information
available to us as of the date any such statements are made and we assume
no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. These statements
are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results
to differ materially from those described in the statements. These risks
and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the following: factors
that could affect our ability to achieve and manage our planned expansion,
such as the availability of a sufficient number of suitable new restaurant
sites and the availability of qualified franchisees and employees; risks
relating to our expansion into new markets; the risk of food-borne illnesses
and other health concerns about our food products; changes in the availability
and costs of food; changes in consumer preferences, general economic conditions
or consumer discretionary spending; the impact of federal, state or local
government regulations relating to our franchisees and employees, and the
sale of food or alcoholic beverages; the impact of litigation; our ability
to protect our name and logo and other proprietary information; the potential
effects of inclement weather; the effect of competition in the restaurant
industry; and other risk factors described from time to time in our SEC
reports.
Contact:
Company Contact:
Marc Geman
Spicy Pickle Franchising, Inc.
Email Contact
http://www.spicypickle.com
(303) 297-1902
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