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Nothing new in the BLOG over
the last few days. I like to use the BLOG in moving markets, and
the markets are very quiet now as we roll into the Christmas Holiday. The
Q4 rally did not come this year in the microcap world. Ever the eternal
optimist, I believe microcap stocks will trade much better in '06. A lot
of America's "hot money" is in real estate. Condo flipping is coming to
an end, and that money will find its way back into the markets.
Next week I will publish a year end
edition. I'm planning on giving you an inside look at my side- I will reveal
what some of the failed companies told me about their future when I first
talked to them. You will find it eye opening. For some reason, there has
been a plague of over promising and under performing this year.
To use the BLOG, simply go
to the home page at www.otcjournal.com
- the BLOG will scroll down automatically on the right side of your
screen. The most current journal entries appear in the middle of your screen.
Check back frequently for updates particularly when stocks are moving to
overbought or oversold levels or in volatile markets. Your questions and
postings do not automatically appear, so don't bother posting the same
question multiple times. I personally go through to moderate and respond
to every reasonable question.
Today's edition covers two very positive
events for two microcap companies I would consider "value" ideas. Both
companies expect to be cash flow positive in 2006, and both look to surpass
the $25 million mark in sales with game plans to achieve $100 million.
Owning value is a good way to minimize
risk, but value is the single worst predictor of price performance. Ask
Warren Buffet. To make big returns on these stocks you have to be prepared
to wait until the market turns its attention back to the telecom sector.
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TelePlus (OTC
BB: TLPE) Sets Stage For Next Big Acquisition |
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Teleplus made a very significant
announcement today which I believe sets the stage for the company to deliver
on promised performance for 2006. TLPE announced it had restructured
its long term debt of $5.85 million, and rolled it up into a single debt
instrument of $9.225 million.
TLPE now carries long term
debt of $9.225 million, and has restructured the note to
very favorable terms for shareholders. TLPE will pay a 10% coupon,
and the note can be converted into common stock at a reasonable 5% discount
to the prevailing market, leading to minimal dilution at some point down
the road. There's icing on the cake in this financing. TLPE has
the option of allowing no conversions for the next three years, and simply
paying off the note at the end of that time frame. All we need is a strong
patch in the telecom market in the next 36 months, and TLPE can
do a different equity financing with no conversion feature, and simply
pay off the note. No dilution for shareholders for three years- outstanding.
Or, in an even wilder and more potent
possibility, TLPE could make enough profits to pay off the note.
One current research report forecasts the company will make enough in '06
to pay off about 1/2 the note.
This now leaves TLPE with
excess cash of $3.375 million that the company really didn't
need. If history repeats itself, TLPE will soon be announcing a
key strategic acquisition, and I'd be willing to be it will be for a very
profitable company.
TLPE has formally predicted
it will achieve $55 million in sales in '06. Factoring in a reasonable
organic growth rate, $55 million can realistically be achieved if TLPE
can acquire about another $15 million in annual sales.
This representation is becoming very
refreshing. A company that is delivering on promised performance. Be still
my heart. More to come from this one. Own for a higher valuation.
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NetWork
Installation (OTC BB: NWKI)- $1 million in New Business in Vegas |
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NWKI is rapidly becoming another
microcap value play in the telecom arena. The company made the corner into
2005 with about $3 million in annual sales, and a $2 stock price.
As we turn the corner into 2006,
NWKI
will be sporting about $22 million in annual sales and a $.70 stock
price. Oops- make that $23 million- I forgot they
just landed another $1 million in business today. What's wrong with this
picture?
The press release makes for interesting
reading. Apparently, Vegas is becoming like NY. They are building up, not
out. High rise MDU's (Multi Dwelling Units) are going up along the strip,
equating to $14 billion in construction for 44,000 new residences. NWKI
is getting a big chunk of the infrastructure installation work. The company
announced this morning that it has landed another $1 million in business
on the strip.
Both of these telecom stocks are
great value plays in the microcap arena. Value is the worst timing indicator,
but the best protection against downside risk. When money flows back to
the telecom sector, these two should benefit greatly along with shareholders
who have the contrarian mentality - accumulate when everyone is on the
sidelines.
No weekend edition this week. Next
week- year end wrap up.
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