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August
5, 2007 |
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Volume
VIII, Issue 51 |
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Home Page : www.otcjournal.com
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What, Me Worry? |
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Anybody out there remember this guy?
Alfred
E. Neuman, the fictional mascot of the 1960's pop culture fad Mad
Magazine, is never worried. However, in typical fashion the market
has found something to worry about, and the annual Armageddon type sell
off is in full swing.
I've been out of touch with reality
for the past 10 days, much like the venerable Alfred E. I was traipsing
around in a unique part of the world in the very far reaches of northern
central British Columbia where you can still drink the water right out
of the lakes. Totally removed from TV, telephone, the internet, and even
roads- I enjoyed the pause that refreshes.
I am now ready for battle, and ready
to re enter the six to nine months that seasonally yields the best profits
in the microcap world. And I'm as optimistic as I have even been- why?
Because the market is setting up for another great Fall to Winter rally
just like last year. Bull markets are characterized by violent, irrational
sell offs. Take a deep breath, buckle up, and remember better times are
ahead. You also might consider a couple of antacids.
How badly has the market sold off?
Market tech guru Adam Olensis says his mid term oscillator index
has only been this low twice since 1993- the immediate low after 911,
and the absolute low of July of '02 (Enronitis). If you were a buyer
at that time for a six month to one year time horizon, you made a fortune
in your favorite stocks. This sell off is setting us up for a great six
months.
So- you want a few items to worry
about? Here you go:
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The sub prime melt down (Friday's big
drop-Bear Stearns funded these exotic loans- now their clients are paying)
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Recession in the housing market
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Soaring Oil and commodity prices
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Near record debt service burdens
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Slower consumer spending due to all
of the above
You want something not to worry about?
How about GDP growth and earnings growth. The forward 52
wk operating EPS forecast for the S&P 500 has eclipsed the $100
mark for the first time in history, which represents 10.4% annual
profit growth. We still have the perfect slow growth, low interest rate
environment for stocks.
I have returned from the visit to
another world where collapsing stock prices don't get noticed. The only
bear to worry about was the grizzly looking for lunch in the peanut butter
and jelly in the lunch box, and that bear was much scarier.
Next week we will see some earnings
reports from a few of our favorite (or currently not so favorite) microcap
ideas. I suspect there will be some surprises. PNWIF could sell
off a little more as investors are reminded the company is rather small
despite the high valuation. I believe, despite the drubbing the stock has
taken, CPNE will deliver better earnings than the market expects,
which won't be difficult at this price. NIHK- holding up beautifully.
It could have a great August.
A drop below 2500 on the NASDAQ
Comp would have me taking a shot at some calls on the QQQQs.
Apple
Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL) has finally corrected a bit after eclipsing
my initial target price of $140 as called at $95 in March.
I still believe the stock is going to $200. A BLOG on my guess on
a good entry level next week.
I was hoping the summer of 2007 would
be absent the typical violent sell off. However, it seems the market affords
us this kind of big drop about twice a year during a bull market- this
year is no different. It's been a doozy, but it sets us up for a strong
six to nine months.
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