Email : info@otcjournal.com
URL : http://www.otcjournal.com
To
OTC Journal Members:
This edition of the OTC Journal
is sent primarily for the benefit of our AOL Members. Our newsletter
is on the AOL "White List", meaning that AOL will not block
its delivery. Recently, we changed the IP address of our mail server, and
because of this move AOL inadvertently blocked the delivery
of our last several newsletters. The problem has now been resolved.
If you wish to review our newsletters
in chronological order, simply go to the following web address: http://listserv.otcjournal.com/
Here are two very important excerpts
from our last two newsletters. If you are not an AOL subscriber
and have already read this material please delete this edition. We apologize
for any inconveniece.
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July
MVP Award |
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Our July MVP Award was featured
last Wednesday, but many of you did not receive the edition. It is a free,
no strings attached 10 week subscription to the Wall Street Journal.
If you are a new member and not familiar with this feature, we use the
marketing leverage of our 300,000 strong membership group to obtain special
offers each month on behalf of our members. Monthly you are awarded 150
Membership Value Points which you can redeem for our monthly special.
Apologies to our valued members outside
the Continental United States. If you live in Alaska, Hawaii, or anywhere
else outside the United States you do not qualify for this MVP Award. This
is out of our control.
We have been in nasty bear market
since April. Although stocks have stopped free falling, there has been
very little life to the upside. When this market turns back up we will
be there with money making ideas in micro cap stocks, and many of our currently
covered companies will rebound dramatically. Until then, here is a no cost
benefit for you:
To thank you for your continued membership
in the OTC Journal you have just been awarded 150 new Membership
Value Points, which you can redeem right now for a 10-week subscription
to The Wall Street Journal. There are no strings attached, no bills;
you earned your points and your reward.
Click
Here to claim your MVP Award
or go the following web address:
http://otcjournal.mvpprogram.com
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Rules For Successful MicroCap
Investing
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For some time we have been planning
on publishing a section on the basic rules for successful microcap investing.
The current wretched state of the market offers the perfect opportunity
to review some of the basic rules which will work over the long term.
We will be placing this edition up
on the Home Page as a reference section. You can refer to it from time
to time if you need a refresher course during psychologically challenging
market conditions.
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MicroCap
Investing- An Overview |
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In today's market environment most
investors define a microcap company to be any stock with a market cap below
$200 million. Market capitalization is determined by multiplying the price
of the stock by the number of issued shares- this gives you the value which
the market is placing on the company.
Microcap stocks do not lend themselves
to traditional analysis. There is usually no history of revenues and earnings
from which one can predict future performance. There are few or no analysts
publishing formal financial and price projections. There is generally very
little information from which one can make a "logical" decision
to invest in a micro cap stock. Investing in MicroCap stocks tends to be
more emotionally driven.
Dr. Richard Geist, Harvard PhD
in psychology, long time observer of the psychology of investing, and
contributing editor to the OTC Journal, says there are four primary
factors that contribute to success in the micro-cap market:
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Financial understanding--knowing
how to evaluate a company's performance and its management.
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Experience--a good intuitive
feel for products and services that will impact society.
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Luck--unpredictable good fortune
blessing a few of your holdings.
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Psychology--understanding enough
about yourself to avoid emotional mistakes.
The most successful microcap investors
make decisions more from the gut than the head. Investing in the
unpredictable futures of companies that have revolutionary ideas but no
history of success requires a certain amount of intuition and luck, and
the rewards can be unparalleled when an investment pays off.
Before deciding to invest in a microcap
stock be certain that you like the company. If you have no feel for the
company's business model please do not invest. Never invest on the basis
of a hot tip or the advice of this newsletter. We will continue to come
up with about eight ideas each year, but you must make the ultimate decision.
It is your money, and you will suffer the consequences of any loss and
enjoy the benefits of any gains. We already know that we are going to be
wrong about some of the companies we profile. Therefore, you should expect
the same.
After reading the section below
if you feel that you cannot adhere to these basic principles please do
not invest in microcap stocks. It is not the area for you. We recognize
that this is only one small corner of the entire investment world. However,
it is one that we believe every investor with a small amount of discretionary
capital should be involved in.
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Basic
Investing Rules For MicroCap Stocks |
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Here are several rules to which you
must adhere to be a successful microcap investor:
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Never invest more than you can afford
to lose. Since microcap stocks are highly risky, only a small percentage
of your assets should be committed to microcap stocks. Consult a professional
licensed financial advisor if you are unsure about a suitable amount to
invest in this high risk end of the market.
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Be prepared to invest with at least
a one to two year time horizon. Peter Lynch, one of the most successful
fund managers of all time, said that he made his best returns starting
the second year he held a stock, often waiting five years to fully maximize
his profits. While one month might seem like an eternity to a short sighted
investor, one year is a small fragment in the life cycle of a successful
company. A specific example is Comverse Technologies (NASDAQ: CMVT).
One of our editors traded this stock in 1987 at $.375. Today (July
28, 2000), the stock is trading at $78 ($234 split adjusted) after a 2:1
and 3:2 split. It would be interesting to learn if there are any shareholders
who purchased this stock at $.375 in 1987 still holding it today.
A 10,000 share purchase for an investment of $3,750 in 1987 would be worth
$2,340,000 today.
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Learn to accept losses. There
is a much higher failure rate among micro-cap companies. Successful micro
cap investors have to develop the capacity to tolerate a loss. You must
be secure in the knowledge that a few really large winners will result
in success. Most unsuccessful investors become pre-occupied with their
mistakes, blaming brokers, analysts, company management, or the OTC
Journal. Successful investors expect mistakes. Most successful investors
enjoy the process of investing as much as they enjoy making money. Stocks
can go up infinitely, but they can only go down to zero. Therefore, whenever
you invest for the long term in a microcap stock your upside potential
is much greater that your downside risk.
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Learn to Tolerate Bear Markets.
Microcap Stocks, as with all stocks, will always trade both higher and
lower than you ever thought possible. We go through extended periods of
time when market conditions are unfavorable for microcap stocks which can
be psychologically damaging to undisciplined investors. Because microcaps
generally trade less volume than their bigger brethren, market makers can
manipulate price levels in their favor in both up and down markets. The
absence of buyers in microcap stocks during a bear market allows market
makers to drop prices dramatically on very little volume. High percentage
pull backs on light volume in a microcap stock can be excellent buying
opportunities. However, in order to take advantage of such opportunities
you must have capital, the courage of your convictions, and the patience
to wait for an upturn in market conditions. You must discipline yourself
against allowing the psychological impact of tough market conditions to
affect your belief in the future of the companies you own.
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Trading
Strategies For MicroCap Stocks |
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Here are some tried and true trading
strategies that have proven successful over time in microcap stocks:
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Never invest the entire amount you
are willing to commit on the first trade. We have never profiled a
company that did not trade below our profiled price at some point in time.
Unfavorable market conditions can be excellent opportunities to add to
positions. Also, small companies stumble in the execution of their business
plans leading to depressed prices in their stocks. If they right the ship
at a future point in time this can represent a buying opportunity. If the
stock is trading in your favor you can always add to a position at higher
levels if the company is performing beyond your expectations.
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Always use limit orders. Market
Makers in microcap stocks are in business to make money on your trade,
and they are ruthless. Microcaps trade less volume than larger stocks and
are therefore more easily subject to manipulation by market makers. We
have often watched market makers fill a market order to the detriment of
the investor. Even if you are willing to pay the current market price,
please place it as a limit order. The next generation of direct execution
brokerage firms will help eliminate the predatory practices of market makers.
However, stocks on the OTC Bulletin Board do not trade within the electronic
systems which allow investors to bypass the market makers. We hope the
regulators will make a change soon.
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Never Place an Order to Buy a Stock
at the Market Price when it Gaps Open. A Gap occurs when a stock opens
at a much higher price than it closed at the previous day based on some
news or event. When market makers have market orders for a stock at the
open, they will often take the stock up and fill the market orders at an
exaggerated higher price. When shareholders sell into the newly established
higher price the stock will drop back down and fill the price gap that
was created. Market Makers have been using gaps to line their pockets
with money from investors for years. Generally, if you want to purchase
the stock that day, place a limit order at the previous day's closing price.
You will nearly always get your order filled.
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Never Sell a MicroCap Stock At the
Market When it Gaps Down at the Open. Traders use the same tricks
on bad news. If they have an excess of market sell orders at the open,
they will fill those orders at a ridiculously low price. Always wait for
the inevitable bounce before liquidating your position if the news if bad
enough and you are looking to preserve your remaining capital.
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Don't Be Afraid to Add To Positions
During Unfavorable Markets. If you have followed the rules and not
committed the entire amount you are willing to invest, bear markets can
be excellent buying opportunities. Microcap stocks will generally drift
down in the absence of buyers, and can drop to ridiculously low levels
during bad markets. Profits can be made when you purchase during those
periods of time when no one wants the stock. As a general rule, a microcap
stock will make 90% of its move up in 10% of the time that it trades. Before
adding to a position make your best effort to determine that the company
is still on track to execute its business plan. Try not to put good money
after bad if you can get the information required to make an informed decision.
Don't be afraid to pick up the phone and contact the company directly.
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Take Some Profits When the Stock
Is Hot. Since microcaps tend to make 90% of their moves in 10% of the
time there is nothing wrong with taking a profit when your stock is climbing
the charts. One tried and true strategy is to sell 50% of your position
after the stock doubles in value. This allows you to recoup your initial
investment and hold the remainder for the long term with no risk. However,
don't sell your entire position. You never know how high a stock will go.
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Conclusion |
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There is a whole world of investment
opportunities in securities and microcap stocks are just a small part of
it. However, they represent the basic tenant of the American Dream. Hard
working entrepreneurial management can use revolutionary ideas and technologies
to make extraordinary returns for the average investor.
We have seen it happen hundreds of
times- $2 stocks that go to $50, and $2 stocks that go to $0. Our challenge
is to uncover the hidden gems amongst the 5,000 microcap stocks that trade.
This is the role of the OTC Journal- to uncover those hidden gems
with the potential to go from $2 to $50.
We are only a provider of ideas-
You must ultimately decide if an idea we present is right for you. We will
have winners and losers. We have already had several huge winners. We can
only hope that you like something that we profile and are along for the
ride on at least one of our huge winners.
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