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New
Ideas in this Market? |
 |
Let's face it, the market is terrible
right now. The market is convinced sky high oil prices have derailed the
economic recovery. Chain store sales are weakening (i.e. Wal-Mart, Sears,
etc.). Cost conscious consumers shop at these stores, and the $50 fill
up is definitely slowing their spending habits. This slow down has also
curtailed the job recovery. Since the consumer represents 70% of GDP, prolonged
exposure to this environment threatens the economy. Hence, a nasty sell
off in the market.
Today I am going to share another
new microcap idea- it is the second new idea this week. You might ask yourself
why buck the trend in this tough environment? Two reasons: First, I don't
believe this is a bear market. The NASDAQ comp could fall all the way to
1715 for a 50% retracement of the bull which began in March of 2003, and
we would still be in an uptrend, albeit a shaky one. Secondly, while $45
to $50 a barrel oil would be a major drag on our economy, I don't believe
it is going to hold up over the long term. Parabolic rises in commodities
never hold (ask any who bought silver at $8.50 in March).
If you believe, as I do, that oil
prices will settle in at about $35 per barrel (just a reasonable guess)
when the mania subsides, the market will get back on track. Oversold stocks
will bounce, and they'll bounce hard.
You must visualize yourself as a
farmer in today's environment. It's planting time. You have to plant the
seeds today in order to deliver a healthy crop and cash in when it's time
to harvest.
For you naysayers who don't believe
in an aggressive approach during a tough market, you might consider some
of the past ideas:
-
10/12/02:
CMVT at $7.11; 12/02/02: $12.50
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10/12/02:
AMD at $3.76; 12/02/02: $9.30
-
10/12/02:
QLGC at $21.86; 12/02/02: $44.15
-
12/17/02:
IRSN at $1.72; 2/6/04: $4.76
In all fairness, since the fall of 2002
I've suggested plenty of ideas which did not pan out. I hearken back
to the Fall of 2002, because that market environment was similar to today's.
The perception of a failed economic recovery (everyone thought Greenspan
was behind the curve) fostered the belief stocks could never move up again.
Guess what- they can and they will.
Today's idea is an unknown company
that has developed a revolutionary new microprocessor. The last idea I
published on a small company with new concepts in the chip space was Irvine
Sensors on 12/17/02 at $1.72- as you see above. The stock took
some time to get going, but made a high of $4.76 when market conditions
improved.
I first looked at today's idea three
months ago, and told them to come back when they notched their first sale.
Since that time two things have changed. They have not notched their first
sale, but today they announced their revolutionary new chip has completed
testing phase, and is ready for commercial sale. That by itself would not
have resulted in this publication. However, the stock has been cut in half
over the last week. The two combined led to the publication of this idea.
Therefore, you have potential breakthrough technology at a grossly diminished
price. Very risky, but lots of upside. For your consideration:
 |
Perfisans Holdings
Inc (OTC BB: PFNH) |
|
I remember the installation of my
first high speed internet connection. It was about seven years ago. The
Time Warner Cable service technician came to my house. At the time, my
desktop computer did not have an ethernet card. It did not have the TCP/IP
connection. The phone modem was my computer's only connection to the outside
world, and it was a separate little box.
The technician installed the TCP/IP
ethernet card in my computer for about $180, plugged in the cable modem,
and magically I had a high speed connection for $39.95 per month.
Those older generation desktops only
had one chip which ran all the functions in the whole machine. Today's
desktops are geared up to handle a lot more functionality than the early
generations. Today our computers are bombarded with data in all forms from
external sources: i.e. audio, video, data, graphics, etc. All this information
flows in and out of your computer through your ethernet card.
When our parents were children they
had one family doctor. You went to your family doctor for all ailments;
broken arms, stomach pains, headaches, and diseases were all treated by
your family doctor. Today you have a specialist for every conceivable ailment.
Twenty years ago one chip ran your
computer. The computer chip has evolved like the medical profession. Today
you have specialist chips within your computer. The main CPU handles the
majority of the processing. However, you may have a special graphics card
with an associated special graphics chip which helps alleviate the load
on the main CPU.
You are looking at a picture of Adaptec's
latest and greatest ethernet card. It contains a high tech chip which works
on a specialized TCP/IP architecture known as TCP/IP Offload Engine
or
TOE(you
know how the techies love acronyms for everything). Both Intel and Broadcom
make a similar product.
This ethernet card comes with a highly
specialized chip designed to handle the massive amounts of data which can
flow in and out of your computer through whatever network you are on. Without
this new high tech architecture, the main CPU helps process the data, which
slows down every thing else it should be working on. As more information
flows through your network, the ethernet card becomes a much tighter bottleneck.
You won't find this new high speed
ethernet card in your typical $1,000 Dell box. The reason is simple.
If you go into your local Comp USA you will find that this new high speed
ethernet card costs about $650. The one Dell puts in a $1,000
box runs about $60. The cost difference is mostly due to the price
of the special high speed chip on the card.
According to Moore's law, processing
speed doubles and the prices get cut in half every 18 months. The subject
of today's idea, Perfisans, is in the business of making sure Mr.
Moore's law lives on.
|
Perfisans
(OTC BB: PFNH): Ready to Compete With a Lower Priced Product |
|
This is the Perfisans specialized
microprocessor, more commonly known as a computer chip. It has been in
development since 2001. $4.5 million has been invested in the development
of this chip, and the majority of the experimentation was done in China,
where $4.5 million could equate to $15 million in the US.
After the market closed Friday, Perfisans
announced
it had completed product development and is currently demonstrating the
ACC-1001 Accelerator chip to networking companies world wide.
This is a specialized chip which
is designed to be included in the architecture of an ethernet card. It
is not faster than any other chip currently on the market, but it is considerably
cheaper.
When installed in a desk top computer,
processing speed will improve considerably as these smart NICs (network
interface cards) will take up to 80% of TCP network processing overhead
off network host computers. According to VP Steve Gormley “This frees the
rest of the system to concentrate on pumping the payload data,”.
“It's a powerful solution that provides meaningful cost-savings and other
benefits to users of enterprise networks."
In short, your networked computer
will be much faster with this chip on your ethernet card. The chip is so
much cheaper that the Adaptec product with the TOE architecture
we covered above could drop in cost from $650 to $65. If this is the case,
this chip could end up on the cards which are included in the aforementioned
$1,000 Dell box.
As you can see from the chart, PFNH
has had a rough time of it over the last week. The stock has been chopped
in half. For this reason, in conjunction with the announcement that they
are introducing their new low cost solution to manufacturers, I believe
this highly speculative stock is worth a small punt.
It is a totally unknown and very
thinly traded stock. Therefore, it could be subject to violent swings in
price both up and down on light volume levels.
Hopefully, after being cut in half
over the past week, Friday's news will get this one headed back north.
A couple of very thinly traded new ideas rocketed in the past- specifically
NWIS
which traded from $.80 to $6 in four days when first introduced, and NTDL
which traded from $.73 to $1.50 in two days. Nimble traders made a lot
of money on those two ideas.
PFNH should be viewed as highly
speculative. The company has generated minimal revenues to date. If they
deliver their first orders in the near term with a household name manufacturer,
the whole picture could change.
Nevertheless, certainly worth a roll
of the dice with a couple of thousand of your high risk money. If they
start announcing orders, you'll wish you had more.
Here is the complete text of Friday's
news release for your review:
| Press Release Source:
Perfisans Holdings, Inc.
Perfisans Technology
Positioned to Spark Next Generation of Network Products From OEM Manufacturing
Community
Friday August 6, 4:03
pm ET
Proprietary Architecture Expected
to Boost Gigabit Ethernet Network Speeds Over 200% Without Increasing Product
Costs
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS
WIRE)--Aug. 6, 2004-- Perfisans Holdings Inc. (OTC BB: PFNH - News), a
next generation technology company focused on the burgeoning Gigabit Ethernet
market, announced the completion of its flagship product, ACC-1001 Accelerator
chip. Network product manufacturers worldwide are getting their first looks
at the new technology, a revolutionary system-on-chip product that offers
a new cost and performance paradigm in Ethernet speeds for small and mid-size
business networks.
Despite its revolutionary
speed improvements, the ACC-1001 architecture provides the flexibility
and compatibility the OEM networking industry requires. Because the Perfisans
architecture is compatible with industry standard data transfer protocols,
they will allow fast adoption of the new technology at the core of the
ACC-1001, enabling development of a new generation of servers, motherboards,
Network Interface Cards and storage area networks.
Most importantly, the
Perfisans system-on-chip designs will allow OEM manufacturers to bring
true Gigabit Ethernet speeds - and enterprise quality network applications
-- at costs affordable to customers in the small office/home office and
entry-level enterprise markets.
"Our proprietary acceleration
technology leapfrogs existing performance standards," said Steve Gormley,
Vice President of Perfisans. "It will enable makers of computers, servers
and other network products to develop their products cheaper, faster and
better than ever before."
The Perfisans ACC-1001
technology will enable Gigabit Ethernet networks to run 200 to 300% faster
than standard available Gigabit networks.
The Perfisans ACC-1001
is a system-on-chip product based on Perfisans' proprietary TCP/IP Offload
Engine (TOE) architecture. The additional functionality of the Perfisans
accelerator technology brings a new level of processing intelligence to
Network Interface Cards; these smart NICs will take up to 80% of TCP network
processing overhead off network host computers. "This frees the rest of
the system to concentrate on pumping the payload data," said Gormley. "It's
a powerful solution that provides meaningful cost-savings and other benefits
to users of enterprise networks."
Business end-users with
Perfisans-powered networks will benefit directly from the higher data throughput
with increased workplace and CPU efficiency, and decreased computing overhead
of enterprise applications. Home users will enjoy superior performance
in Internet surfing, as well as vastly improved speed and ease-of-use in
popular bandwidth-hungry applications such as music and video downloads.
The ACC-1001 technology
is fully scalable, and backward compatible with legacy 10/100 Megabit Ethernet
systems, enabling even smaller enterprises to realize the benefits of Gigabit
network speeds without requiring costly, system-wide upgrades.
Perfisans officials say
their TOE architecture will enable the creation of entire suites of third-party
products at a broad range of price points. The company, whose officers
are veterans of the semiconductor and ASIC industries internationally,
is positioned to maximize global market share with its proprietary chip
designs.
The ACC-1001 is targeted
specifically at the Windows 2000 and Windows XP small business customer
base, the most important component of networked-based home office and entry-level
enterprise businesses. Market analysts project that these small and midsize
organizations will spend more than $100 billion on information technology
products in the United States in 2004, a rate that's expected to increase
in 2005 and beyond.
About Perfisans Holdings,
Inc.
Founded in 2001, Perfisans
Holdings, Inc. is an emerging advanced ASIC design house focused on developing
leading edge, cost-effective, system-on-chip (SOC) integrated circuits
(IC) and delivering innovative solutions that address the performance needs
of next generation network systems. Rapidly being recognized by industry
leaders for its innovative network interface products, the Company's technologies
have applications in telecommunication, data communication, storage networks,
content delivery networks, broadband networks, and rich streaming media.
More information can be obtained from the Company's web site at www.perfisans.com.
Cautionary Statement
This press release contains
statements relating to future results of Perfisans (including certain projections
and business trends) that are "forward-looking statements" as defined in
the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may
differ materially from those projected as a result of certain risks and
uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited
to: the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and the markets addressed
by the company's and its customers' products; demand for and market acceptance
of new and existing products; successful development of new products; the
timing of new product introductions; changes in product mix; product obsolescence;
the availability of manufacturing capacity; fluctuations in manufacturing
yields; pricing pressures and other competitive factors; the ability to
develop and implement new technologies and to obtain protection for the
related intellectual property; the uncertainties of litigation; our ability
to attract and retain qualified personnel; as well as other risks and uncertainties,
including those detailed from time to time in Perfisans's Securities and
Exchange Commission filings. These forward-looking statements are made
only as of the date hereof, and the company undertakes no obligation to
update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of
new information, future events or otherwise.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Contact:
Investor Relations:
Trilogy Capital Partners, Inc.
Michael Briola, 800-251-1770
michael@trilogy-capital.com
or
Perfisans Holdings, Inc.
Leigh Lombardi, 800-592-6067
ir@perfisans.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Perfisans Holdings,
Inc.
|
Charts Provided Courtesy
Of TradePortal.com |
