To OTC Journal Members: 
 

Managing The Fear Factor

In 1698 London coffee shop owner John Castaing posted a list of stock and commodity prices called "The Course of the Exchange and Other Things".  This was the first known stock exchange, and fostered a network of coffee house exchanges. The first speculative bubble known as the "South Sea Bubble" burst in 1720.

In 1773, 150 brokers erected a building in Sweeting's Alley known as "New Jonathan's" The name was changed to the Stock Exchange later that year.

The first shares of stock changed hands in 1698. That was 310 years ago. We are currently embroiled in the worst environment since that first trade. Rather amazing when you think about it. The worst 2 months in 310 years- about 14 generations of investors. It became official last week- nothing in history compares to the sell off investors have lived through- not 1720, 1929, 1937, the late 70's and early 80's, 1987, or 2000. September and October 2008 are the worst.

At this point, it's forced liquidations that are killing the stock market. All leverage is being imploded out of the financial system in one gigantic black hole, and it's a rather painful and frightening experience. Hedge funds are closing down and their Prime Brokers are just liquidating everything with no regard for value.

Earlier this week I read some thoughts from life performance coach Tony Robbins. I hope you find this useful. Here's what he had to say:
 

The Pickle Gets Panned

I had a rather entertaining day on Friday when I checked the early quotes and scanned the stocks I follow for news. Much to my surprise, a columnist from MarketWatch decided to write a rather nasty editorial piece on Spicy Pickle Franchising (OTC BB: SPKL) entitled "Stupid Investment of the Week".

I strongly recommend everyone who owns this stock or has any interest read his column. Surprisingly, except for the headline and the way he characterizes the company, I pretty much agreed with what he had to say. I can't quite figure out why he would pick on Spicy Pickle vs the other four thousand $.30 stocks that are losing money out there in the speculative world. There are a lot of stocks with a lot less substance to pick on. In fact, I don't think anybody really cares what this guy had to say about the company in today's environment when Freddie and Fannie have been seized by the government, Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns no longer exist, and AIG is on life support from the taxpayers. I mean, really- who cares. The stock price didn't get hurt in any big way.

Factually, he had some good points, most of which I have already pointed out in past writings. Spicy Pickle is still losing money and at some point they will need additional capital. It will probably require $1 million to $1.5 million sometime in the next six months to get to the point of positive cash flow. One year ago today I thought they'd be profitable by now. One year ago today I did not factor in a nasty recession and a complete implosion of the entire credit world. My mistake.

Needless to say, everyone who wants to be sensational tweaks the presentation to fit their theme. Author Chuck Jaffe does not bother to mention Spicy Pickle had 12 stores open about 2 1/2 years ago, has over 50 stores today, and has a top line growing at about 300% per quarter- the revenue number is small, but the underlying stores are delivering somewhere in the range of $25 to $30 million in annual revenues.

He also points out I still own 1.7 million shares in my disclosure, and that I might just decide to go ahead and sell them all. First of all, it's really about 1.4 million shares. I have made some money on the stock, but I also wrote the check and took the risk. I paid for every single share I've ever sold just like any other investor. He doesn't bother mentioning that I took most of my profits between $1.50 and $2, which corresponds with the exact time I published a BLOG suggesting everyone else take their profits on the stock as well.

So, let's be clear. Things have changed in the last six months. It is a tough environment for Spicy Pickle. They are not as stable as much larger, much better financed chains. They did pull off a great coup closing the Bread Garden acquisition in Western Canada in a stock only transaction, which added 11 locations to their network. Here's what's likely to happen to Spicy Pickle over the next six months: Revenues will continue to rise, overhead will go down, and they will raise small amounts of money in tiny increments. They'll come out the other end of the recession in good shape.

I plan to hold the position I own through the recession, and will only sell the shares if I have to because I need the money. I am not recommending buying the shares today for anyone with anything but the highest risk tolerance. I would prefer to have a better vision of the "path to profitability" before suggesting anyone get aggressive. If you like the company and have a little faith in the management, there's nothing wrong with holding on to what you have. I believe the company will find its way to profitability, and will grow and prosper once the recession ends. It could be a painful trip to getting there- I don't know. Also, I don't control all the shares in the disclosure on the site, so some associates might sell some to raise cash. 

I am a big believer in hearing both sides of the story, so I recommend you read Mr. Jaffe's article. It's also available in audio form, complete with movie sound bites that are rather entertaining. His audio version comes out somewhere between Howard Stern and Cramer. It's a lame attempt at a sort of irreverent sensationalized humor.

And, another point I want to clarity: I am not recommending anything but cash for anyone with less than a six month time horizon on investing. I heard one analyst today say it's time to buy broken stocks, not broken companies. Let me be very clear about what I am recommending for bottom fishing courageous investors aside from the standard ideas widely covered (all profitable, growing, good balance sheets):

• FXI (Closed End China Fund on NYSE): This security trades on the NYSE and represents a portfolio of China Blue Chip companies. The stock is down over 60% this year, yet the behemoths with the portfolio are doing fine. The companies within the portfolio have an average PE of 10, and continue to grow anywhere from 10% to 40% annually. GDP growth in China is expected to slow from about 12% to 7%, but I believe slowing growth is priced in. At its current price, there is about a 4% dividend. Eventually, the global investment community will remember China, and realize slower growth is not the same thing as a recession. 1.3 billion people are still there.
• China Energy Recovery (OTC BB: CGYV): Through the first 6 months of 2008, $9.8 million in revenues and $564k in profits. 172% growth rate over 2007. $6.7 million in cash. Has technology that gets rid of pollution and recycles energy in coal burning plants in the Far East. Stock has been decimated by forced liquidations from dissolving institutions. I anticipate no need to raise capital, ongoing profitability, and growth well into 2009.
• PhotoChannel Networks (OTC BB: PNWIF): Cash was a little low last filing for the June quarter, but no debt. The company should reap the benefits of massive customer roll out for Costco in the first half of 2008. They provide online photo processing services for customers of major retail chains like Costco, Sam's Club, CVS, Walmart Canada, and many more. Upload your photos online, order, pick up in store in one hour. Could do surprisingly well in the coming Holiday Season as consumers will spend a lot less than normal, and framed photos make great, inexpensive gifts. Also decimated by forced liquidations of funds. PNWIF is cash flow positive and should remain that way from here forward.

I hope that clears up any misconceptions fostered by Jaffe's article. To read the article simply Click Here. To hear the audio version, which is highly entertaining, Click Here. Please take the time to do this. If you are a shareholder and disturbed by the content, simply sell the stock and get out. Be done with it. For the most part, no one seemed to care.

I know you probably don't care today with all the distractions. I understand. I am overwhelmed with problems as well. Eventually, investors will come around, greed will creep back in from fear ruling the roost, and interest will resurface. Those stocks you see listed above probably won't be as cheap, but there's multi year moves left in all three of them when the irrational selling ends.

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