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Market
Comment- NASDAQ Over 1800- A Blip on the Screen or A Precursor To Higher
Levels? |
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Did anyone notice the NASDAQ
traded up over 1800 yesterday for the first time since April of 2002? Intel
raised future revenue and earnings estimates, and the tech sector came
charging out of the gates.
Intel is probably the single
most important technology stock. Computer chips are in everything, and
Intel
is
the 1200 pound gorilla in a land of 200 pound chimps. Therefore, as Intel
goes, so goes the tech sector. Intel has risen 71% since March 6th,
the day many believe was the start of a new bull market.
At $27.50, Intel is now trading
at about 40 times next year's estimated earnings. EPS is estimated to be
about half the level they were when the company was at its peak in 1999.
This lofty valuation helps support my contention that PE ratios mean nothing.
Stocks go up and down based on investor perception of the future. If the
future looks better, stocks go up. If it looks worse, they go down.
NASDAQ ended down on the day,
which raises a few red flags. The news is about as good as it could be.
Business is improving at the corporate level, the economy is oozing positive
signals, but the recent attempted gains are not holding. Therefore, the
probability for a weak September looms. It may be time to revisit the idea
of owning a few puts on the QQQ's to offset the risk of your long positions,
as September has a history of being a tough month.
The anemic summer volume skews a
final determination. We'll be able to get a better handle on the situation
after Labor Day when Wall Street's big boys return from their 12,000 square
foot cottages in the Hamptoms and send the youngsters back to the mail
room.
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Irvine Sensors
(NASDAQ: IRSN) Delivers Big News In a Small Package |
|
If you're looking for a little excitement
from Irvine Sensors, they delivered the goods on Friday morning.
Much to my disappointment, there hadn't been much coming out of the company
for the last several months. Last week they unveiled their new BGA stacked
product, which has the potential to take the company to a whole new commercial
level. Friday they delivered more.
This company is like a duck. It appears
to be cruising along serenely on the water. You don't see their feet peddling
wildly below the surface.
You are looking at the world's smallest
fully featured computer, and it was unveiled by Irvine Sensors this
past Friday morning. It is powered by an Intel® 32-bit SA-1110 StrongARM®
206 MHz processor. It has solid state memory provided by 8Gb of solid-state
storage using 16 Samsung® Flash memory chips. In short, this mini computer
has horsepower equivalent to many specialized use laptops.
As you can easily see from the picture,
this computer isn't much bigger than a quarter. It's about 1 inch square
and 1/2 inch high. It could fit inside a large wrist watch. This unit becomes
a fully functioning computer when you attach a mouse, keyboard, and monitor.
Irvine Sensors is beginning
to prove they are the kings of small and powerful in the computing world.
I expect it to convert into recognition for the company, which hopefully
translates to enhanced volume and appreciation in the stock.
As you can see from the chart, Irvine
Sensors briefly touched off a new multi month high last week on the
heels of announcing they were taking orders for the new BGA stacked memory
products.
I believe a few more high volume
days like that one will peg the stock at a higher level. The stock needs
more consistent high volume days. Introducing the world's smallest full
featured computer is bound to bring some media coverage from somewhere,
which could lead to the enhanced volume the stock needs.
This stock is a good value proposition.
Although it's certainly not an apples to apples comparison, Intel is
up 70% since the beginning of March, and Irvine Sensors is only
up 24% since that day.
Intel trades at about 6 times annual
sales, and Irvine Sensors is only trading at 1 times annual sales.
Intel closed just over $27 on Friday, down from an all time high of $76.
Irvine
Sensors closed at $1.75, down from an all time reverse split adjusted
level of $350 per share. Intel has shrunk in the last few years. Last fiscal
year was the best Irvine Sensors had in their 20 year history, with
revenues increasing 50% over the previous year to $15 million.
Intel
makes money. Irvine Sensors is still reporting small losses.
Look for announcements of sales of
the new BGA stacked memory products to give the stock some traction. There
are no guarantees, but management has a very high level of confidence that
they are finally going to commercialize their $200 million 20 year investment
in technology.
Here is the complete text of yesterday's
news release for your review:
| Press Release Source:
Irvine Sensors Corporation
Irvine Sensors Demonstrates
Complete Stacked Computer
Friday August 22, 9:15
am ET
Neo-Stack(TM) Technology
Compresses Entire System Into 1/2 Cubic Inch Volume
COSTA MESA, Calif., Aug.
22 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Irvine Sensors Corporation (Nasdaq: IRSN,
Boston Stock Exchange: ISC) announced today that it has successfully developed
and demonstrated an entire computer system that could fit inside a wristwatch.
Using its patented Neo-Stacking(TM) technology, Irvine Sensors has stacked
and integrated a complete, commercially standard suite of electronics to
produce a miniaturized high performance computer in an assembly that is
approximately one inch square by 1/2 inch high. The system has interfaces
and support for a LCD display, mouse, keyboard, USB 1.1 host controller,
and various other forms of external input and output. It uses less than
two watts of power when operating.
The Neo-Stacked computer
includes an Intel® 32-bit SA-1110 StrongARM® 206 MHz processor,
the Intel SA-1111 StrongARM companion chip, a Xilinx® Coolrunner®
XCR3256XL CPLD, 256 Mb of Intel StrataFlash® boot flash, 1024 Mb of
Micron® SDRAM memory, 8Gb of solid-state storage using 16 Samsung®
Flash memory chips, a processor clock, a real time clock, arrays of required
resistors and capacitors, a variety of interface ports including USB, UART,
IrDA, SSP, PS/2, audio and video plus miscellaneous other parts required
for a complete computer system. Its standard operating system permits it
to use widely available commercial software.
"We undertook this development
to initially address military requirements for highly miniaturized embedded
computers. However, we expect that in sufficient volumes, the costs of
such computers could be reduced to levels that would be commercially attractive,"
said John C. Carson, Irvine Sensors President. "Since we have recently
seen industry announcements of much less ambitious packaging demonstrations,
we thought it was about time to let the world know about the rapidly increasing
maturity of our technology and what we believe can be accomplished with
Neo-Stacking today. We invite systems developers to get in touch with us
to discuss Neo-Stacking solutions to their applications challenges," Mr.
Carson concluded.
Irvine Sensors Corporation,
headquartered in Costa Mesa, California, is primarily engaged in the sale
of stacked chip assemblies and research and development related to high
density electronics, miniaturized sensors and cameras, optical interconnection
technology, high speed routers, image processing and low-power analog and
mixed-signal integrated circuits for diverse systems applications.
Neo-Stack and Neo-Stacking
are trademarks of Irvine Sensors Corporation. Other brands and products
mentioned in this release are trademarks of their respective holders.
Safe Harbor Statement
under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This news release
may contain forward-looking statements based on our current expectations,
estimates and projections about our industry, management's beliefs, and
certain assumptions made by us. Words such as "anticipates," "expects,"
"intends," "plans," "believes," "seeks," "estimates," "may," "will" and
variations of these words or similar expressions are intended to identify
forward-looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited
to, the potential application for, pricing of and success of our Neo-Stacking
technology and speak only as of the date hereof and are subject to change.
We undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward-looking
statements for any reason. These statements are not guarantees of future
performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions
that are difficult to predict. Therefore, our actual results could differ
materially and adversely from those expressed in any forward-looking statements
as a result of various factors.
Important factors that
may cause such a difference include, but are not limited to, general economic
and political conditions and specific conditions in the markets we address,
including our ability to successfully adapt our Neo-Stacking technology
to meet the specifications of potential military and commercial customers;
our ability to successfully commercialize and achieve broad market acceptance
for any resulting products; our ability to raise additional capital; our
ability to negotiate appropriate strategic relationships; our ability to
control costs and expenses; and the general economic slowdown in the technology
sector and semiconductor industry. Further information on Irvine Sensors
Corporation, including additional risk factors that may affect our forward
looking statements, is contained in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, our
Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, our Current Reports on Form 8-K and our
other SEC filings that are available through the SEC's website ( www.sec.gov
).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Irvine Sensors
Corporation |
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