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OTC Journal Members:
Be sure to check out a couple of
blog
entries from earlier this week after you're done with today's edition.
I touched on the iShares Brazil Index Fund (EWZ) trade, which we've
been gratefully holding for a while... we're getting very close to my target
price of $60.00.
I also updated our view of Nighthawk
Systems (NIHK), which is starting to look a little different than the
NIHK of yesteryear. I'm still not fully convinced the company's
time has finally come, but the chart's starting to hint perhaps it has.
It's worth keeping an eye on anyway.
Like I said, it's all in the blog.
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A Perfect Yield Storm is in the Forecast |
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The methodic unraveling of the economy
and stock market over the past year or two has created "A Perfect Storm."
I
know what you're thinking, "Oh, no. Not another gloom-and-doom commentary
about the crashing of GM, financials and the U.S. dollar."
You're in luck. I'm not going to
bore you by beating a dead horse. I'm talking about "A Perfect Storm of
Investment Opportunities" left behind by the steep sell-off in stocks over
the past year or two.
Let me explain. When picking stocks,
investors usually look for growth and appreciation, high-yield or those
following current hot trends (like emerging markets, commodities, etc.).
It usually depends on whether you're seeking growth or want to "play it
safe."
Imagine, though, if you could get
all of the above in one stock. It's like hitting the jackpot. Well, that's
precisely what I'm seeing in the market right now.
Remember, as stock prices drop, yields
rise. Since the March 9th low, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 has
dropped from 4.12% to 2.12%. At the same time, the yield on the 10-Year
Treasury Note has risen from a low of just over 2% to its current level
of 3.73%.
It's a rarity to find companies with
all of their stars aligned: high-yield that grows along with sales and
earnings and evidence of a rising price pattern.
But I've spotted a few.
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High Yields and Growth |
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With ties to China and Taiwan - and
a juicy 15.5% yield - I like the looks of Himax Technologies (Nasdaq:
HIMX), a leading producer of semiconductors used in flat-panel displays
found in computer monitors, laptops, mobile phones, digital cameras and
car navigation devices.
These are still selling well worldwide,
and will sell like hot cakes in countries like China and India with emerging
middle-class consumers hungry for Western-style goods. Himax is a recognized
category leader with a strong reputation, market share and huge growth
potential.
Although Q1 net income fell to $4.4
million, or 2 cents a share, from $34.1 million, or 18 cents a share, a
year earlier, the company forecast earnings of 7 cents to 9 cents a share
on sequential revenue growth of 52 percent to 55 percent.
Analysts look for global flat-panel
sales to grow 25-30% annually in the coming three to five years.
The next two companies fall under
a different umbrella than ordinary stocks. Both are publicly traded master
limited partnerships (MLPs) that operate pipelines and related infrastructure.
MLPs collect a fee for transporting
fuel and sometimes for processing or storing it; they don't drill for it
or sell to any end users. Typically, these businesses aren't directly affected,
in any great degree, to fluctuating prices for oil or natural gas.
On
the other hand, energy MLPs require a steady volume of goods passing through
the pipes to cover their fixed costs, While the economic downturn has slowed
sales of refined products (like gasoline and jet fuel), pipelines that
handle mostly natural gas have continued to thrive (like the two companies
I'm about to talk about.).
You can't simply focus on yield when
choosing an MLP. Its an expensive undertaking to building and maintain
a pipeline, so you want to focus on partnerships that can tap the debt
and equity markets even in today's unsettled climate. Again, the two MLPs
I like are well financed for 2009 and beyond, with plenty of cash flow
to cover quarterly distributions to shareholders.
The first MLP is Enterprise Products
Partners (EPD). Besides sporting an impressive growth record, the company
has raised its distribution for 18 quarters in a row and yields an eye-opening
8.1%.
Normally, I steer clear of the highest
yielders because they're often facing some kind of financial squeeze. In
this case, though, EPD's yield has risen for purely technical reasons:
The partnership issued $205 million of new shares during the second week
of January, depressing the price. EPD traded back down with the market
in early March but has since rebounded nicely from
The second MLP is ONEOK Partners
(OKS). Since 1994, it has racked up a total return of 382% and currently
yields 8.7%. Unlike EPD, which moves crude oil and petrochemicals as well
as natural gas, this MLP focuses exclusively on gas - the safest market
niche for a pipeline. Moreover, substantially all the gas gathered, processed,
stored and transported by this company comes from the U.S. and Canada,
limiting political risk.
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