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September
27, 2006 |
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Volume
VII, Issue 74 |
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Home Page : www.otcjournal.com
Email Questions or Comments To:
editor@otcjournal.com
To
OTC Journal Members:
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PhotoChannel
Networks (OTC BB: PHCHF; TSX: PNI) - Shutterfly (NASDAQ: SFLY) IPO Imminent |
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I am informed that the aforementioned
ShutterFly
(NASDAQ: SFLY) should open for trading this Friday. It was aforementioned
in this past weekend's intro edition on the reincarnated
PhotoChannel.
Shutterfly
is
raising about $80 million. Post financing the company will have
a market value somewhere in the $350 million range depending on
where the stock trades.
Here's the important issue you need
to understand- if Shutterfly is a hot IPO, investors are going to
be looking for other companies in the space- there is only one publicly
traded- PHCHF (or PNI in Canada).
If you want to look at the Shutterfly
profile,
go to http://www.ipohome.com/common/ipoprofile.asp?ticker=SFLY
- or just click
here. The deal is supposed to be priced in the $13 to $15
range, and rumor has it the stock will trade at a nice premium to the IPO
price.
Most importantly- Shutterfly is
a mail order house only. They must advertise for customers, and have the
fullfillment infrastructure in place. In the last year they made a $2 million
profit on $90 million in sales.
I'll bet when we drill down, we will
see that PHCHF has as much gross profit as Shutterfly, albeit
on a much lower top line. The top line revenues flow directly to the store
where you pick up your photos- PHCHF simply keeps a fee for facilitating
the transaction.
Granted, the top line does not look
as robust, but the bottom line per print will be equivalent. PHCHF,
with it's $60 million market cap and 5,000 plus retail outlets looks cheap
in comparison to the Shutterly and its $350 million market value.
Owning shares of PHCHF is
almost an arbitrage trade on SFLY later this week. You are taking
advantage of inefficiencies in the market to put profits in your pocket.
For PHCHF- upside target $.40
to $.50 this year. SSL- $.14.
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Correction
From Original Presentation |
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Here's a quote from this past weekend's
initial presentation on PHCHF:
"You can invest in Snapfish, but
only if you buy shares of Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HP). HP bought the company
several years ago. At the time of the purchase, Snapfish already had the
WalMart relationship in place. According to industry scuttlebutt, WalMart
is a bit unhappy with the relationship. Snapfish is very active in direct
customer online printing and shipping services. This competes directly
with WalMart's pick up service."
As it turns out, I was incorrect
when I identified WalMart as being a bit unhappy with the HP/Snapfish
relationship. In fact, the retailer who is rumored to be a bit unhappy
with HP/Snapfish is Costco. Costco had the relationship
in place with Snapfish prior to the HP buyout. Subsequently, PhotoChannel
was
awarded the Costco Canada business. One analyst believes this could
be a harbinger of more to come. Many apologies for the mistake. It was
not intentional.
PHCHF is the only pure play
aside from Shutterfly in the online photofinishing space. The space
is going to get hot. Own Photochannel now with an upside target
of $.40 to $.50 this year, and an SSL of $.14.
If you want to read the original
presentation from this past weekend, simply click
here. I haven't included an updated chart since the stock has not moved
much since Monday. The chart in original presentation is still current.
Get into PHCHF now, if for
no other reason than owning the best value in this space. All of Wall Street
will be looking at the space in short order.
Your feedback on this idea would
be appreciated. If you like it, do you own it? If not, then why don't you
like it? Email me at editor@otcjournal.com.
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Comments On HDY and CPNE in the BLOG
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On Monday after the close I posted
another BLOG on the recent developments concerning HDY. There
is some very interesting dialogue in the question and answer section of
the previous BLOG, so you might check that out. For those who are
confused about this issue, here it is. Cornell can convert the debt
into shares of HDY at $2 anytime they want to so long as
they don't exceed 4.9% ownership of the I&O. Guess what- they will
never own a single share. Every share is sold and converted after the fact.
HDY
has 5 days to send them the cert. If you are disappointed in the price
performance as a result of the news, there's your explanation. You can
view this as a problem, or an opportunity. If you were looking to flip
out of the stock on the news, they beat you to it. If you are looking to
accumulate for the long term, their supply is just what the doctor ordered.
On another note, I posted a new BLOG
on
the technical side of CPNE, which I believe is going to $2 plus
this year. The current slight retracement is an opportunity to accumlate
in my view. Check it out.
The BLOG is your opportunity
to ask questions and offer comments. I will make an effort to answer every
legitimate question. If I don't know the answer, I will contact the management
and get the answer. Alternatively, if you have questions you don't want
publicly displayed, you can always email me directly at editor@otcjournal.com.
To use the BLOG, simply go
to the home page at www.otcjournal.com
- the BLOG will scroll down automatically on the right side of your
screen. The most current journal entries appear in the middle of your screen.
Check back frequently for updates particularly when stocks are moving to
overbought or oversold levels in volatile markets.
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