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Newsletter
September 27, 2006
Volume VII, Issue 74
Home Page : www.otcjournal.com
Email Questions or Comments To: editor@otcjournal.com

To OTC Journal Members:
 

PhotoChannel Networks (OTC BB: PHCHF; TSX: PNI) - Shutterfly (NASDAQ: SFLY) IPO Imminent

I am informed that the aforementioned ShutterFly (NASDAQ: SFLY) should open for trading this Friday. It was aforementioned in this past weekend's intro edition on the reincarnated PhotoChannel. Shutterfly is raising about $80 million. Post financing the company will have a market value somewhere in the $350 million range depending on where the stock trades.

Here's the important issue you need to understand- if Shutterfly is a hot IPO, investors are going to be looking for other companies in the space- there is only one publicly traded- PHCHF (or PNI in Canada).

If you want to look at the Shutterfly profile, go to http://www.ipohome.com/common/ipoprofile.asp?ticker=SFLY - or just click here. The deal is supposed to be priced in the $13 to $15 range, and rumor has it the stock will trade at a nice premium to the IPO price.

Most importantly- Shutterfly is a mail order house only. They must advertise for customers, and have the fullfillment infrastructure in place. In the last year they made a $2 million profit on $90 million in sales.

I'll bet when we drill down, we will see that PHCHF has as much gross profit as Shutterfly, albeit on a much lower top line. The top line revenues flow directly to the store where you pick up your photos- PHCHF simply keeps a fee for facilitating the transaction.

Granted, the top line does not look as robust, but the bottom line per print will be equivalent. PHCHF, with it's $60 million market cap and 5,000 plus retail outlets looks cheap in comparison to the Shutterly and its $350 million market value.

Owning shares of PHCHF is almost an arbitrage trade on SFLY later this week. You are taking advantage of inefficiencies in the market to put profits in your pocket.

For PHCHF- upside target $.40 to $.50 this year. SSL- $.14. 
 

Correction From Original Presentation

Here's a quote from this past weekend's initial presentation on PHCHF:

"You can invest in Snapfish, but only if you buy shares of Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HP). HP bought the company several years ago. At the time of the purchase, Snapfish already had the WalMart relationship in place. According to industry scuttlebutt, WalMart is a bit unhappy with the relationship. Snapfish is very active in direct customer online printing and shipping services. This competes directly with WalMart's pick up service."

As it turns out, I was incorrect when I identified WalMart as being a bit unhappy with the HP/Snapfish relationship. In fact, the retailer who is rumored to be a bit unhappy with HP/Snapfish is Costco. Costco had the relationship in place with Snapfish prior to the HP buyout. Subsequently, PhotoChannel was awarded the Costco Canada business. One analyst believes this could be a harbinger of more to come. Many apologies for the mistake. It was not intentional.

PHCHF is the only pure play aside from Shutterfly in the online photofinishing space. The space is going to get hot. Own Photochannel now with an upside target of $.40 to $.50 this year, and an SSL of $.14.

If you want to read the original presentation from this past weekend, simply click here. I haven't included an updated chart since the stock has not moved much since Monday. The chart in original presentation is still current.

Get into PHCHF now, if for no other reason than owning the best value in this space. All of Wall Street will be looking at the space in short order.

Your feedback on this idea would be appreciated. If you like it, do you own it? If not, then why don't you like it? Email me at editor@otcjournal.com.

 

Comments On HDY and CPNE in the BLOG
 

On Monday after the close I posted another BLOG on the recent developments concerning HDY. There is some very interesting dialogue in the question and answer section of the previous BLOG, so you might check that out. For those who are confused about this issue, here it is. Cornell can convert the debt into shares of HDY at $2 anytime they want to so long as they don't exceed 4.9% ownership of the I&O. Guess what- they will never own a single share. Every share is sold and converted after the fact. HDY has 5 days to send them the cert. If you are disappointed in the price performance as a result of the news, there's your explanation. You can view this as a problem, or an opportunity. If you were looking to flip out of the stock on the news, they beat you to it. If you are looking to accumulate for the long term, their supply is just what the doctor ordered. 

On another note, I posted a new BLOG on the technical side of CPNE, which I believe is going to $2 plus this year. The current slight retracement is an opportunity to accumlate in my view. Check it out.

The BLOG is your opportunity to ask questions and offer comments. I will make an effort to answer every legitimate question. If I don't know the answer, I will contact the management and get the answer. Alternatively, if you have questions you don't want publicly displayed, you can always email me directly at editor@otcjournal.com.

To use the BLOG, simply go to the home page at www.otcjournal.com - the BLOG will scroll down automatically on the right side of your screen. The most current journal entries appear in the middle of your screen. Check back frequently for updates particularly when stocks are moving to overbought or oversold levels in volatile markets.
 
 
 
 

 

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The OTCjournal.com Newsletter is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected  publicly traded companies. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward  maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.  Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from certain of the companies which it features.  Likewise, this newsletter is owned by MarketByte, LLC.  To the degrees enumerated herein,  this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent publication.

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OTCJ: Chu On This
December 16, 2008

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