Email : info@otcjournal.com
URL : http://www.otcjournal.com
To
OTC Journal Members:
There's a lot of news to cover in
this weekend's edition. The NASDAQ continues to put on a poor showing in
December, but as mentioned in a previous edition is entitled to pull back
to about the 1330 level. This would represent a 50% retracement of the
October/November gains. If we get down to that level we'll have a bargain
basement edition with some short term ideas. Most market watchers think
we will have a slight upside bias for the remainder of the year. Following
is important information on upcoming events and some of the stocks we are
currently following.
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Time To Go Hunting
for the Elusive Ten Bagger |
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In our December
7th edition we alluded to hunting for the "10 Bagger", a term made
famous by venerable mutual fund manager Peter Lynch (pictured here) in
his best selling bible for the individual investor entitled "One Up on
Wall Street". There were two inadvertent typos in the introduction as pointed
out by several loyal readers- Peter Lynch managed Fidelity Magellan from
1977 (not 1997) to 1990. We also described the book as infamous,
rather than famous, an incorrect use of the word. Special
thanks for pointing these mistakes out.
We have identified a company which
has the potential to be a Peter Lynch type "10 Bagger" for investors with
a two to five year time horizon. Currently trading at 1/250th of its year
2000 high, this NASDAQ listed technology company has been all but abandoned
by investors.
However, the company has extraordinary
technology. Over the last several quarters sales have been increasing while
losses have been decreasing, suggesting a return to profitability is possible.
To date, $200 million has been invested in product development.
This company's technology has significant
military and home land security applications, which bodes well for growth
over the next several years as the Bush Administration spends record amounts
in these areas.
In an interview on CNBC this past
week, pioneer market technician John Bollinger suggested investors should
be looking for "Busted Stocks" as year end tax selling abates in the last
two weeks of December. This stock would fit into that category. Once these
stocks are completely blown out, a little buying pressure can result in
substantial percentage gains.
In our November
20th edition we provided several examples of badly beaten down tech
stocks which had rebounded 300% to 400% from absurdly oversold levels.
This company has the potential to
follow that pattern. We are wrapping up the due diligence, and plan on
introducing a profile on this company next Tuesday, December 17th. Think
of it as a Christmas, Hanukkah, or seasonal gift to our members. This could
end up being the best idea we have ever covered. Check your inbox on Tuesday-
decide for yourself if you agree.
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Family
Room Entertainment (OTC BB: FMLY)- Stock Gives Ground But Is Rebounding
as Premier of NARC Draws Near and Movie Grabs Award Nominations |
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Family Room Entertainment (OTC
BB: FMLY), the entertainment production company we first featured in
a trading alert in our November
1st edition, dropped from $.38 to $.21 this Monday as there seemed
to be one seller around in a hurry to raise cash. Since that day, the stock
has firmed and clawed back up the charts on the best consistent volume
so far seen.
The rebound in the stock could be
attributed to Paramount's launch of an aggressive campaign to make NARC
a serious Oscar contender. Bargain hunters are taking advantage of temporary
weakness in the stock.
NARC premiers in LA and NY
next Friday, December 20th. It will premier nationwide on January 2nd.
Paramount is releasing the film in December in order to place NARC
in consideration for 2002 Oscars and other prestigious awards.
In fact, recent press on the film
has been outstanding, as borne out by the following commentary:
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The Hollywood Reporter, Dec 6-
"Ray Liotta delivers his best performance in years as a conflicted detective."
Christy Grosz, The Hollywood Reporter
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Cover of Daily Variety December
2- "A crackling movie from writer-director Joe Carnahan who revitalizes
the cop genre. A never-better Ray Liotta set off dangerous sparks as a
corrupt Detroit about to be busted by his partner Jason Patric"- Peter
Travers, Rolling Stone
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Two Pages inside Daily Variety
December 9- "...'Narc' a crackle of a noir by the director Joe Carnahan...The
film...has a greatest hits smell...it's compelling. 'Narc" has the velocity
of a hot slug from the barrel of a gun".- Elvis Mitchell, The New York
Times
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Cover of Variety December 9-
"Gripping and gritty! A compelling story that rings true- Jason Patric
gives the performance of a lifetime!" Bill Zwecker, WFLD Chicago
Family Room's wholly owned subsidiary
Emmett/Furla
Productions is executive producer of the film. NARC could represent
a major breakthrough for Emmett/Furla films akin to an FDA Approval for
a new drug to a biotech company.
This movie promises to be a big money
maker. NARC was made for about $6 million, and now major studios
are fighting for producer credits on the film. A recent low budget parallel
is "My Big Fat Greek Wedding". After it's production several big
Hollywood names fell in love with this movie. It is rumored to have made
about $80 million in profits already.
Emmett/Furla put up the required
capital to complete NARC when they were on the verge of halting
production, and as a result Emmett/Furla has a meaningful profit percentage
of the film, a number rumored to be north of 20%.
In a press release issued Friday,
Family Room announced NARC has already been nominated for three
IFP Independent Spirit Awards which include Best Supporting Actor (Ray
Liotta), Best Director (Joe Carnahan), and Best Cinematography (Alex Nepomniaschy).
The IFP Independent Spirit Awards ceremony will be televised live on The
Independent Film Channel (IFC) at 2:00 p.m. PST on Saturday, March 22,
2003 and will then be re-broadcast at 7:00 p.m. PST on Bravo later that
same day.
NARC could end up being as
important to shareholders of Family Room as a new drug discovery is to
a biotech company. With only a $5.3 million market valuation, Family Room
is an outstanding speculation for the high risk end of your portfolio.
The current valuation leaves lots of room for upside potential as this
company develops more entertainment projects and earns back end profits
from those already completed, which include NARC.
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Calypte
Biomed (OTC BB: CALY) Rebounds Friday on Breaking News at the Open |
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Calypte Biomed jumped out
of the gates Friday morning, kicking off what shareholders hope will be
a long overdue rebound in the stock. Calypte is the only company
in the world with an FDA Approval for an AIDS test kit which uses urine
as opposed to blood to determine if an individual is infected with the
HIV Virus. Urine testing is considerably easier and less expensive. In
2001 most major US life insurance companies migrated to this test, and
the company was rewarded with $6 million in sales in the first year of
commercial introduction.
While the AIDS test kit market is
substantial in North America, it pales in comparison to the market for
AIDS testing worldwide where the spread of HIV has reached epidemic proportions
and sample handling is considerably more difficult.
Shares of Calypte have been
under pressure recently due to an imbalance of supply vs demand. With capital
investment for small companies still non existent, Calypte has issued
shares to both raise capital and pay consultants. In spite of the excess
supply of stock, Calypte's average trading volume remains very robust
at 2.8 million shares daily.
Fueling Friday's rebound was news
which came out before the open. Calypte announced it had executed
a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Safe Blood for Africa Foundation,
giving exclusive rights to market and distribute Calypte's urine-based
HIV-1 antibody tests in sub-Saharan Africa as a blood donor pre-screening
tool. Click here
to read the entire text of the news release.
The company hopes the MOU will lead
to the Calypte test being used to screen the entire African blood
supply, which could translate into millions of dollars in sales. It is
estimated that 40% of the African blood supply is tainted with the HIV
virus, making detection the paramount mission of the Safe Blood for Africa
Foundation. 2001 estimates for HIV cases in North America stand at 750,000.
The estimate for the African Subcontinent is 14 million. Hence, the importance
of this news release to the company.
Because of the imbalance of supply
and demand, shares of Calypte should be accumulated for the long
term. Investor appetite for this stock is substantial as proven by the
2.8 million average daily volume, but it could take some time for the market
to absorb excess supply. However, because of the unique nature of their
technology, this could be one of the most exciting $.07 stocks of all time.
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Take-Two
Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO)- Shares Pounded This Week on Sector Downgrades |
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Take-Two Interactive, the
video game developer we featured in our October
30th edition, was hammered this week after a slew of negative comments
on their industry group.
Despite no specific comments about
Take-Two
individually, the stock dropped from $29 to just over the $23 during the
course of the week, giving back the nice gains we had logged from the $26
level when we first published on the stock.
Analysts, who were originally predicting
20% growth in the video game market this Holiday season, now believe this
market will only grow by about 7%.
In our October 30th edition we stated
we felt $24 would be the ideal entry level for this stock, but a drop below
$23 could signal a major trend reversal to the downside. With the stock
hovering near $23, it should be watched carefully.
If you still own it, look and hope
for a rebound when the company announces fiscal year end financial results
just before the market opens next Tuesday. Despite general weakness in
the group, this is by far the hottest video game developer for the Sony
PlayStation II. Their current monster hit, Vice City, is still hard
to find on the shelves. Take-Tow Interactive is expected to earn
$2 per share this fiscal year, and could sell as many as 10 million copies
of Vice City.
Charts Provided Courtesy
Of TradePortal.com
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