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Newsletter
October 1, 2002
Volume V, Issue 74
Email : info@otcjournal.com
URL : http://www.otcjournal.com

To OTC Journal Members:
 

Dear Mr. President- Follow Up Edition

As we suspected, this past weekend's edition, our letter to President Bush concerning the possibility of pending conflict with Iraq, sparked a great deal of controversy and some emotional responses. If you missed our September 28th edition, click here to read it. Next weekend's edition will also be a blockbuster, but not nearly as controversial and much more humorous.

The letter was biased for the argument in favor of avoiding war. We cited some of the evidence critics are using against the President's case which concerns a potential conflict of interest due to his and Vice President Cheney's well documented roots in the oil industry. We were forewarned by one reader to expect an IRS Audit.

We asked people for their thoughts and received hundreds of responses, many very strongly worded. People are decisive on this issue. They have made up their minds, and are not afraid to share their thoughts. It took about six hours to go through them all and tally the results. Not surprisingly we learned the opinions of OTC Journal readers who were willing to respond were split right down the middle. 51% sent in emails suggesting they were against war, 49% were in favor of war.

Although hardly a scientific poll, this is probably reflective of nationwide sentiment. In fairness to both sides, here are several of the well written responses we received which succinctly reflected the feelings of most people in favor of aggressive action against Iraq:
 

Comments From Our Readers Supporting President Bush

Steven S. Comments:
 

As significant as are the issues you present in your letter to President Bush, they pale in comparison to what is currently at risk. They pale to the point that they could some day in the not-too-distant future not matter at all.

Saddam Hussein can already wreck havoc with the mass killing weapons he has, and with which he has already demonstrated an unreasonable willingness to use. Stopping him now will not be easy and the price could be high. If Hussein gets nuclear weapons, that price will be much higher. Hussein could use a nuclear weapons threat to hold the U.S. and all other nations at bay while he forcefully takes over a swath of countries from west of China all the way across the top of Africa. He could do this with acts of terrorism and eventually all out military invasion (possibly with China's assistance).

Hussein routinely kills dozens of his own leaders in order to relieve his paranoia. Hussein is perfectly willing to sacrifice the majority of his own citizens if necessary for him to pursue his madness. Hussein's use of biological weapons could kill millions, not just in the U.S., but worldwide a larger death toll than ever before in history.

We, as U.S. citizens, and all other nations could never again know life without the constant threat of frequent terrorist events in our own cities, towns and neighborhoods.

Debate is good and necessary for our freedoms to survive. But, in the end, we must have the wisdom and courage to defend ourselves and our view of what worldwide life could be without the cruelty, injustice and greed that many times exist today. If we don't have this wisdom and courage, we and the world's citizens and our descendants for many generations to come may have little chance of living in a manner that we can develop to our fullest potential as individuals and contribute to moving civilization forward in a manner that serves every individual and every group.

Using our current petty interests in an attempt to hold our government at bay can only work to support Hussein's threats. We must set aside our special interests and look at the long term with wisdom and courage if we, our way of life and our view of an even better future are to survive nothing less than all of this is at stake.
 

Here is another well written reply from Craig W:
 

Sir,
    One of the difficulties of investing as with other aspects of life, is the inability to answer with absolute certainty the results of a chosen course of action.  However, evaluating past experience in somewhat similar circumstances we tend to build a range of choices which seem reasonably certain to give a positive outcomes in the present. Investing also calls for "pain" in the diversion of funds from availability for immediate consumption looking towards future gain. Of necessity, we compare short term risks and loss in the desire for long term results. 
    Evaluating Saddam Hussein from the lens of loss and gain, it seems apparent that from his past actions, (chemical weapons "used" against citizens of his own country;  invasion of Kuwait and attempted invasion of Iran, funding & training of Palestinian terrorism), his stated intentions (including the declaration that the war with the great satan is not over) makes for a very unstable Mid east and a dangerous future for all countries. 
    So our economy continues to tank. So be it for now. Economies regain strength, but lives lost cannot.  Mr. President, take the time necessary to minimize casualties as we carry a war forced on us to one of the primary sources of Terror.  Our economy will eventually recover, if protected from weapons of mass destruction. 
    However, given sufficient time who can doubt Saddam will act in line with his stated intention. What state will our economy be in then? Let's do it right this time with no half measures. 

Jerry W. reflects the simple sentiment of many readers:
 

You have to look back to the Gulf War.  Where were oil prices after the war?  Think about it.  Our choices today might be $1.75/gal. at the pump today for $1.00/gal. in 2003 (after Iraq regime change) or $1.50/gal. prices at the pump today and another Hitler(with nuclear capabilities, no less) looking for his next victim.  It's just my opinion, but I would prefer to sacrifice another few months of higher oil prices to the death and destruction that would come to many as an alternative.  To me, the choice is obvious. I believe the President shares this thinking.

Where's your heart?  Is it in your pocket book, or where it belongs?

Let freedom reign.

And Finally, from John E- Point well taken John
 

Dear OTC Jounal
     Many of your points are true in your eyes as you see them I am sure, and I agree with some of what you say. But I am not interested in your political views or how you want to communicate with the president. I have other sources I can access for information like this that I prefer to use, and I can write my own letters to the president or any other politician I wish to. I do let the politicians know what I think when I feel the need, and keep links to such access in my favorites list. 
     I would suggest you keep your political views to yourself and stick to the stock markets and companies within. With the knowledge you believe yourself to possess you should be able to make huge profits in the oil, gas, and energy related stocks and commodities markets. In other words, put your money where your mouth is! 

*Special note to those who sent specific objections to our emailing the letter on their behalf: We did not email it to the President. We provided his email address as found at www.whitehouse.gov in case you wished to forward it on your own behalf.
 

The Argument Against Attacking Iraq- The View of a Congressman From Texas

Congressman Ron Paul, a Texas, is opposed to war with Iraq. His September 9th column, published on his web site found at www.house.gov/paul is as follows:
 

IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ABOUT WAR IN IRAQ

As Congress reconvenes this week, the possibility of war with Iraq looms larger than ever. I believe the Constitution clearly requires a declaration of war by Congress before a military invasion of Iraq can take place. I also believe that Congress and the American people need to engage in a sober and thorough debate over the wisdom of such an invasion before we commit our young soldiers to a new war in Iraq. At a minimum, the following questions should be carefully considered:

Why do so many knowledgeable military experts, including former generals Anthony Zinni, Brent Scowcroft, Norman Schwarzkopf, and Colin Powell, caution against war in Iraq? These men understand the geopolitics and military realities of Iraq and the Middle East from their service during the first Bush administration. Are the brilliant military minds of a decade ago suddenly irrelevant? Note that those who actually have experienced war are the most reluctant to call for war, in stark contrast to the mostly non-veteran pundits clamoring to "take Saddam out."

Is Iraq a real danger to us, or have the war hawks wildly exaggerated the threat posed by this impoverished third-world nation?

Do you personally feel strongly enough about Iraq to leave your home, family, and job to join the war? If you are beyond the age of military service, would you want your children or grandchildren to do the same? After Pearl Harbor, almost all Americans would have answered yes to this question, but do we really have the same national unity and clear sense of purpose when it comes to Iraq?

What would you give up at home to provide the billions of dollars necessary to prosecute the war? Would you support a huge tax increase, or give up your Social Security benefits for a decade? I know many Americans would be happy to sacrifice, but we should be honest about what this war might cost us and judge whether it's worth it.

Everyone wants a regime change in Iraq, but who exactly will replace Hussein? Will we support a handpicked successor who later turns on us, much like bin Laden did after we funded his resistance to Soviet occupation of Afghanistan? Remember that the Kurds, our supposed friends in northern Iraq, have fundamentalist factions that are aligned with bin Laden and are allegedly hiding al Qaeda. We risk replacing the secular Hussein regime with a more fundamentalist Kurd regime that hates western values.

How long will we be in Iraq after Saddam Hussein is ousted? Will we be nation-building for decades, as we almost certainly will be in Afghanistan? We cannot afford to repeat the mistakes made in Korea and Vietnam by entering another conflict without clear objectives and a definite exit strategy.

Does an invasion of Iraq play into bin Laden's hands by turning the entire Islamic world against us? Will an Iraq war expand into a Middle East war against Israel? Will Islamic terrorists mount attacks in America and around the world to protest the war?

If we are justified in attacking Iraq, what about the dozens of other countries that pose much more of a threat to us? Why aren't the war hawks calling for an invasion of Iran or especially Saudi Arabia, which harbored most of the September 11th terrorists?

With American forces stretched thin in the Middle East and the administration preoccupied, will China take the opportunity to invade Taiwan? Will India and Pakistan engage in a full-fledged war? Will adversaries like Russia consider us weakened and move against us?

Finally, do the American people, and not just a handful of advisors to the President, really want this war?

All of these questions, and many more, need to be asked and answered in a full and robust congressional debate.
 

This ends our coverage of this issue. We will have more entertaining and less controversial coverage of market related criminal events in the weekend edition. Stand by for a memorable edition which will be a lot of fun.


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