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It's a Lock: At Least 75%
Growth in 2009 |
|
China Energy Recovery formally
announced their backlog and timetable for same today pre open, and dynamic
growth in 2009 (what global recession?) is now officially a lock for this
one. There's no recession for CGYV.
Before getting into the particulars
of today's disclosure, let's have a gander at Goldman Sachs' most current
forecast for global GDP growth through 2012. Is it any wonder I'm totally
in favor of finding these gigantic profit generators in China.
The venerable Goldman Sachs- the
last man standing on Wall Street with any credibility, sees China delivering
nearly 8% GDP growth in 2009. Opposing China on this bar chart is the US
(-2%), Japan (-5%), and the UK (-4%). So, where do you think you're going
to find the most companies making the most money in 2009?
Now, let's fast forward to 2010.
Goldman Sachs is forecasting positive GDP growth 3 of 4- Japan being the
exception. Japan is expected to be negative in 2010 again, albeit less
than 1%. China goes back to 10%, while the other countries hover around
the 1% level. FXI (the China large cap ETF) remains planted on my strong
buy recommendation list, even at $31 (6 points above my very strong buy
recommendation).
I have two more ideas coming with
great growth and great earnings in the small stock world in China over
the next two months. Great growth, profits, and very low valuations.
China Energy Recovery
is going to be extremely busy for the remainder of 2009, and today's news
tells us just how busy- so far. CGYV disclosed today it currently
has $32.7 million in back log contracts to be completed over
the next 12 months.
So, let's look at what that means
to shareholders. Here's some numbers I've published ad nauseum, but I never
tire of reviewing them:
-
$5 million in 2006
-
$11.9 million in 2007
-
$23 million in 2008
-
$40 million plus in 2009 (my estimate)
That's phenomenal growth, and in any
normal market environment investors would be high fiving their astute investment
under $2 with the stock cruising through $4 on its way to
$10.
So, how could we eventually see $10
on this stock? It's all in the numbers. My estimate is over $40 million
in revenues this year, which equates to about $4 million to $5 million
in net profits.
With 30 million shares I&O we're
looking at about $.15 per share in EPS for 2009. Here's an old rule of
thumb, which always works over time. Stocks will generally eventually find
a PE ratio of at least 2 times their annual growth rate. CGYV will grow
at least another 80% this year. This company is entitled to have a PE of
160, which we all know won't happen in the immediate future- that would
put the stock at $6.40 right now, and $24 later this year.
So, what is realistic? A more reasonable
30 multiple puts the stock at $4.50 based on this year's numbers.
How do we see $10- look out to 2010. By then, China will be out
of it's non recession recession, and back into full growth mode.
I believe CGYV could deliver
a number approaching $100 million in 2010. Yes- near $100
million. It's not hard to swallow- look at the history to date,
and the year the company will have in 2009.
It's going to happen. The big question-
do you have the will and patience to wait for this one to get "discovered"
by the rest of the market? Will you still be a shareholder when the institutions
are willing to pay up for this growth again?
I've circled the 6 week consolidation
phase where the stock simply cannot get through the $2 level. If the fundamentals
keep improving at this pace, this stock will eventually break out of this
range and find higher levels.
More people are finding out about
this one. Eventually, this stock will break out, and you'll be in position
to make a huge return. All that's required is patience and capital.
Here's the complete text of today's
news for your review.
| Press Release Source:
China Energy Recovery, Inc.
China Energy Recovery
Announces Record Backlog Orders for 2009
Tuesday April 28, 2009, 7:00 am EDT
SHANGHAI, China, April 28 /PRNewswire-Asia/ --
--
Contract
values of backlog orders amount to RMB223 million (US$32.7
million), up by 86% year-over-year, to be completed in the next 12
months
-- Backlog orders will potentially help save 370 thousand tons of coal
and
reduce 1 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually
China Energy Recovery,
Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: CGYV - News; ISIN: US16943V2060; "CER"), a leader
in the waste heat energy recovery sector of the industrial energy efficiency
industry, today announced the company has record backlog orders of RMB223
million in contract value (approximately US$32.7 million based on the exchange
rate as of the date of this press release). This represents an 86% increase
compared to the backlog orders of RMB120 million (approximately US$17.6
million) at the same time in 2008. These orders are expected to be completed
in the next 12 months with the majority to be completed by the end of 2009.
"We're very pleased to
achieve this milestone in such a challenging economy both in China and
globally," commented Mr. Qinghuan Wu, Chairman and CEO of China Energy
Recovery. "It is encouraging to see that industrial firms are becoming
more proactive to include energy recovery systems in their plans for new
facility construction or retrofit projects of existing ones. Customers
are seeing the tremendous economic benefits of such systems in addition
to the need to achieve compliance to government mandates for environmental
protection and energy efficiency. Though there are currently impacts on
industrial manufacturers like us from the economic downturn and there will
be quarterly fluctuations as a result of our order-based business model,
our strong backlog orders provide us good visibility for our performance
in the next 12 months, especially for the second half of that period. Our
pipeline has also been expanding which is expected to further enhance our
performance for the whole year of 2009 and beyond."
The energy recovery systems
under these backlog orders, upon completion, are expected to generate nearly
174MW heat energy. This is equivalent to achieving a total annual saving
of roughly 370,000 tons of coal (coal equivalent), which would otherwise
be required to produce the same amount of power, and consequently the reduction
of roughly 1,000,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions from burning of that
coal each year.
As the numbers presented
above represent backlog orders estimated to be completed in the next 12
months until April 2010 based on contracts signed as of the press release
date, the actual revenue realized through that date is subject to the completion
of all these orders during the next 12-month period. The company acknowledges
that there may be cases where there would be causes which are out of the
company's control, such as those by customers, and would lead to delay
in the completion and/or shipments of these orders, thereby affecting the
revenue to be recognized for the company in the next 12 months. The contract
numbers presented above are the total contract values, which include a
17% value added tax ("VAT") and the retainage amounts for product warranty
purpose, which are 5-10% of the total contract values and will be recognized
as deferred revenues. VAT and the retainage amounts are excluded for revenue
recognition for the current period according to US GAAP. The numbers presented
represent values based on current exchange rates. Changes in the currency
exchange rates would result in a commensurate change in contract value.
What is Waste Heat Energy
Recovery?
Industrial facilities
release significant amounts of excess heat into the atmosphere in the form
of hot exhaust gases or high-pressure steam. Energy recovery is the process
of recovering vast amounts of that wasted energy and converting it into
usable heat energy or electricity, dramatically lowering energy costs.
Energy recovery systems are also capable of capturing harmful pollutants
that would otherwise be released into the environment. It is estimated
that if energy currently wasted by all the U.S. industrial facilities could
be recovered, it could produce power equivalent to 20% of U.S. electricity
generation capacity without burning any additional fossil fuel, and could
help many industries to meet stringent environmental regulations.
About China Energy Recovery,
Inc.
CER is an international
leader in designing, manufacturing and installing waste heat energy recovery
systems which provide facilities with greater energy efficiency. The company's
primary focus is on the Chinese market. CER's technology captures industrial
waste energy to produce low-cost electrical power, enabling industrial
manufacturers to reduce their energy costs, shrink their emissions footprint,
and generate sellable emissions credits. CER has deployed its systems throughout
China and in such international markets as Egypt, Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia.
CER focuses on numerous industries in which a rapid payback on invested
capital is achieved by its customers, including: chemical, paper manufacturing,
refining (including methanol refining), etc. CER continues to invest in
R&D and plans to build China's first state-of-the-art energy recovery
system research and fabrication facility to allow it to meet the increased
demand for its products and services. For more information on CER, please
visit: http://www.chinaenergyrecovery.com/s/Home.asp . Information on CER's
website does not comprise a part of this press release.
Forward-Looking Statement
Disclaimer
This press release includes
"forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Securities Litigation
Reform Act of 1995, as amended. All statements, other than statements of
historical fact, included in the press release that address activities,
events or developments that CER believes or anticipates will or may occur
in the future are forward-looking statements. These statements are based
on certain assumptions made based on experience, expected future developments
and other factors that CER believes are appropriate under the circumstances.
Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties,
many of which are beyond the control of CER and may not materialize, including,
without limitation, the efficacy and market acceptance of CER's products
and services, CER's ability to execute on its business plan and strategies
and CER's ability to successfully complete orders and collect revenues
therefrom. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees
of future performance. Actual results or developments may differ materially
from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of many
factors. Furthermore, CER does not intend (and is not obligated) to update
publicly any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. The
contents of this release should be considered in conjunction with the warnings
and cautionary statements contained in CER's filings with the Securities
and Exchange Commission, including CER's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed
with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 30, 2009.
For
more information, please contact:
Media
Sean Mahoney
Tel: +1-310-867-0670
Email: seamah@gmail.com
Investor
Relations
Jim Blackman
Tel: +1-713-256-0369
Email: jim@prfmonline.com
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