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It's a Lock: At Least 75% Growth in 2009

China Energy Recovery formally announced their backlog and timetable for same today pre open, and dynamic growth in 2009 (what global recession?) is now officially a lock for this one. There's no recession for CGYV.

Before getting into the particulars of today's disclosure, let's have a gander at Goldman Sachs' most current forecast for global GDP growth through 2012. Is it any wonder I'm totally in favor of finding these gigantic profit generators in China. 

The venerable Goldman Sachs- the last man standing on Wall Street with any credibility, sees China delivering nearly 8% GDP growth in 2009. Opposing China on this bar chart is the US (-2%), Japan (-5%), and the UK (-4%). So, where do you think you're going to find the most companies making the most money in 2009?

Now, let's fast forward to 2010. Goldman Sachs is forecasting positive GDP growth 3 of 4- Japan being the exception. Japan is expected to be negative in 2010 again, albeit less than 1%. China goes back to 10%, while the other countries hover around the 1% level. FXI (the China large cap ETF) remains planted on my strong buy recommendation list, even at $31 (6 points above my very strong buy recommendation).

I have two more ideas coming with great growth and great earnings in the small stock world in China over the next two months. Great growth, profits, and very low valuations.

China Energy Recovery is going to be extremely busy for the remainder of 2009, and today's news tells us just how busy- so far. CGYV disclosed today it currently has $32.7 million in back log contracts to be completed over the next 12 months.

So, let's look at what that means to shareholders. Here's some numbers I've published ad nauseum, but I never tire of reviewing them:

  • $5 million in 2006
  • $11.9 million in 2007
  • $23 million in 2008
  • $40 million plus in 2009 (my estimate)
That's phenomenal growth, and in any normal market environment investors would be high fiving their astute investment under $2 with the stock cruising through $4 on its way to $10.

So, how could we eventually see $10 on this stock? It's all in the numbers. My estimate is over $40 million in revenues this year, which equates to about $4 million to $5 million in net profits.

With 30 million shares I&O we're looking at about $.15 per share in EPS for 2009. Here's an old rule of thumb, which always works over time. Stocks will generally eventually find a PE ratio of at least 2 times their annual growth rate. CGYV will grow at least another 80% this year. This company is entitled to have a PE of 160, which we all know won't happen in the immediate future- that would put the stock at $6.40 right now, and $24 later this year.

So, what is realistic? A more reasonable 30 multiple puts the stock at $4.50 based on this year's numbers. How do we see $10- look out to 2010. By then, China will be out of it's non recession recession, and back into full growth mode. 

I believe CGYV could deliver a number approaching $100 million in 2010. Yes- near $100 million. It's not hard to swallow- look at the history to date, and the year the company will have in 2009. 

It's going to happen. The big question- do you have the will and patience to wait for this one to get "discovered" by the rest of the market? Will you still be a shareholder when the institutions are willing to pay up for this growth again?

I've circled the 6 week consolidation phase where the stock simply cannot get through the $2 level. If the fundamentals keep improving at this pace, this stock will eventually break out of this range and find higher levels.

More people are finding out about this one. Eventually, this stock will break out, and you'll be in position to make a huge return. All that's required is patience and capital.

Here's the complete text of today's news for your review.
 

Press Release Source: China Energy Recovery, Inc.

China Energy Recovery Announces Record Backlog Orders for 2009

        Tuesday April 28, 2009, 7:00 am EDT

        SHANGHAI, China, April 28 /PRNewswire-Asia/ --

    -- Contract values of backlog orders amount to RMB223 million (US$32.7
       million), up by 86% year-over-year, to be completed in the next 12
       months
    -- Backlog orders will potentially help save 370 thousand tons of coal and
       reduce 1 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually

China Energy Recovery, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: CGYV - News; ISIN: US16943V2060; "CER"), a leader in the waste heat energy recovery sector of the industrial energy efficiency industry, today announced the company has record backlog orders of RMB223 million in contract value (approximately US$32.7 million based on the exchange rate as of the date of this press release). This represents an 86% increase compared to the backlog orders of RMB120 million (approximately US$17.6 million) at the same time in 2008. These orders are expected to be completed in the next 12 months with the majority to be completed by the end of 2009.

"We're very pleased to achieve this milestone in such a challenging economy both in China and globally," commented Mr. Qinghuan Wu, Chairman and CEO of China Energy Recovery. "It is encouraging to see that industrial firms are becoming more proactive to include energy recovery systems in their plans for new facility construction or retrofit projects of existing ones. Customers are seeing the tremendous economic benefits of such systems in addition to the need to achieve compliance to government mandates for environmental protection and energy efficiency. Though there are currently impacts on industrial manufacturers like us from the economic downturn and there will be quarterly fluctuations as a result of our order-based business model, our strong backlog orders provide us good visibility for our performance in the next 12 months, especially for the second half of that period. Our pipeline has also been expanding which is expected to further enhance our performance for the whole year of 2009 and beyond."

The energy recovery systems under these backlog orders, upon completion, are expected to generate nearly 174MW heat energy. This is equivalent to achieving a total annual saving of roughly 370,000 tons of coal (coal equivalent), which would otherwise be required to produce the same amount of power, and consequently the reduction of roughly 1,000,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions from burning of that coal each year.

As the numbers presented above represent backlog orders estimated to be completed in the next 12 months until April 2010 based on contracts signed as of the press release date, the actual revenue realized through that date is subject to the completion of all these orders during the next 12-month period. The company acknowledges that there may be cases where there would be causes which are out of the company's control, such as those by customers, and would lead to delay in the completion and/or shipments of these orders, thereby affecting the revenue to be recognized for the company in the next 12 months. The contract numbers presented above are the total contract values, which include a 17% value added tax ("VAT") and the retainage amounts for product warranty purpose, which are 5-10% of the total contract values and will be recognized as deferred revenues. VAT and the retainage amounts are excluded for revenue recognition for the current period according to US GAAP. The numbers presented represent values based on current exchange rates. Changes in the currency exchange rates would result in a commensurate change in contract value.

What is Waste Heat Energy Recovery?

Industrial facilities release significant amounts of excess heat into the atmosphere in the form of hot exhaust gases or high-pressure steam. Energy recovery is the process of recovering vast amounts of that wasted energy and converting it into usable heat energy or electricity, dramatically lowering energy costs. Energy recovery systems are also capable of capturing harmful pollutants that would otherwise be released into the environment. It is estimated that if energy currently wasted by all the U.S. industrial facilities could be recovered, it could produce power equivalent to 20% of U.S. electricity generation capacity without burning any additional fossil fuel, and could help many industries to meet stringent environmental regulations.

About China Energy Recovery, Inc.

CER is an international leader in designing, manufacturing and installing waste heat energy recovery systems which provide facilities with greater energy efficiency. The company's primary focus is on the Chinese market. CER's technology captures industrial waste energy to produce low-cost electrical power, enabling industrial manufacturers to reduce their energy costs, shrink their emissions footprint, and generate sellable emissions credits. CER has deployed its systems throughout China and in such international markets as Egypt, Korea, Vietnam and Malaysia. CER focuses on numerous industries in which a rapid payback on invested capital is achieved by its customers, including: chemical, paper manufacturing, refining (including methanol refining), etc. CER continues to invest in R&D and plans to build China's first state-of-the-art energy recovery system research and fabrication facility to allow it to meet the increased demand for its products and services. For more information on CER, please visit: http://www.chinaenergyrecovery.com/s/Home.asp . Information on CER's website does not comprise a part of this press release.

Forward-Looking Statement Disclaimer

This press release includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in the press release that address activities, events or developments that CER believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. These statements are based on certain assumptions made based on experience, expected future developments and other factors that CER believes are appropriate under the circumstances. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of CER and may not materialize, including, without limitation, the efficacy and market acceptance of CER's products and services, CER's ability to execute on its business plan and strategies and CER's ability to successfully complete orders and collect revenues therefrom. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements as a result of many factors. Furthermore, CER does not intend (and is not obligated) to update publicly any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. The contents of this release should be considered in conjunction with the warnings and cautionary statements contained in CER's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including CER's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 30, 2009.

    For more information, please contact:

    Media
     Sean Mahoney
     Tel:   +1-310-867-0670
     Email: seamah@gmail.com

    Investor Relations
     Jim Blackman
     Tel:   +1-713-256-0369
     Email: jim@prfmonline.com
 

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