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China Energy (OTC BB: CGYV):
Trade Opportunity Close At Hand |
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China Energy's (OTC BB: CGYV)Q1
numbers came out Friday after the close, and if not properly understood,
could create a great trading opportunity for my readers with an itchy trigger
finger for profits, and a fantastic accumulation opportunity for those
of you with a longer term perspective.
Last year, CGYV delivered
$23
million in revenues, and about $1.5 million in profits. That
was up from about $12 million in 2007. Outstanding growth, even in the
global recession.
In 2009, CGYV announced it's
backlog of contracts signed, sealed, and delivered in 2009 to be $32.5
million, thereby insuring another year of about 80% growth- another
strong accomplishment.
However, the Q1 numbers came out
Friday, and the company delivered a mere $1.5 million in revenues, which
at first look might be thought a major disappointment to investors. Therein
lies the opportunity.
If one doesn't look a little deeper
and quickly review the slate of recent press releases, it's easy to assume
the company has fallen on hard times, and its fortunes have been reversed.
So, let's dig a little deeper. Here's
what I can tell you. CGYV books its revenues when it ships out projects
for delivery to the customer. If a major project happens to fall on the
south side of the cut off line for the quarter, the company cannot book
the revenues.
10 days ago on May 5, CGYV
announced it had shipped a $4.85 million project to a customer
in New Guinea. In the same disclosure, CGYV also announced those
revenues would fall in Q2.
Consider the facts. With the $4.85
million delivery in April, and the $1.5 million booked in Q1, CGYV
will have generated $6.35 million in the first four months of the year,
substantially higher than the previous year.
So, here's where the opportunity
could lie. At the open Monday, there could be shareholders who see these
quarterly numbers without the benefit of an understanding the revenues
were simply a week later on the calendar. They might assume the company's
business has been derailed.
You now know that is not the case,
can CGYV will deliver a far bigger year in 2009 than in 2008, Q1
not withstanding.
If the knee jerk reaction is a sell
off in the stock, this would represent and outstanding opportunity for
both traders and investors in my view. Consider the action in the stock
last November as shown in this chart.
In early November the stock had been
trading down for two months in conjunction with the worst ninety day blow
off in stock market history. The stock finally made a volume and price
crescendo blow off, and within three trading days CGYV reversed
from $.90 at the low to a high of about $2.
Here's the lesson- opportunistic
investors and traders saw their money appreciate 122% in just three
trading days. Not bad.
My suggestion is to watch this stock
in the early going Monday morning. If the stock sells off, be ready for
the smart money to pile in and take advantage of a bottom basement steal.
I'll try to post a eLearning Video
chart over the weekend for everyone's benefit. I suspect CGYV will
make some sort of explanatory news release in short order.
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About a year ago I asked my etches
if there was any way we could get ideas to investors with text messaging
to cell phones. I was prepared to spend some money as I saw this as the
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The folks at TWITTER did it
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quick updates and coming events.
Just go to www.twitter.com,
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go directly to http://twitter.com/otcjournal.
Sign up today, join as a follower,
and I'll start using it to everyone's benefit. Tell your friends to sign
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