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Newsletter
October 28, 2004
Volume V, Issue 105
Home Page : www.otcjournal.com
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To OTC Journal Members:
 

Bloody Wednesday: Cash At Any Price

It has certainly been a lousy week for several current ideas. eReasearch (NASDAQ: ERES) and M Systems (NASDAQ: FLSH) both sold off on great earnings reports. I'm still hanging in there on both of those ideas as we are now coming into the seasonally strongest time of the year to be in stocks. If I sell them, it won't be on a knee jerk reaction from a market that only cares about energy. I'll wait until everyone loves them again and they have some momentum to the upside. If they had poor earnings reports it would be a different story.

In an even more bizarre twist of events, yesterday four of the OTC Journal's favorite microcap situations got clobbered for about two hours during the middle of the trading day. It was as if someone with a large block in each of the issues put in a market order and the stocks just tanked. VTSI, NTDL, NWKI, and NWAV all had inexplicable big red candles on their charts yesterday.

By the end of the day the selling subsided, and three out of four are starting to rebound. 

I have a couple of theories as to what might have happened. One relates to the timing. Many funds have their year ends at the end of October. A few hedge fund managers could have been cleaning up positions in order to have these stocks out of their portfolios before year's end. They were raising cash at any price to clean up the positions.

At any rate, yesterday's action was indicative of someone or several investors who were raising cash at any price. The bizarre part was that it all happened on exactly the same day. 

Despite this one day set back, three of the four stocks remain in uptrends as measured off their 2004 lows. Here are some thoughts.


Network Installation went into a free fall yesterday, but has since stabilized and is now trying to rebound. As measured off the 2004 low in August, the stock's uptrend remains intact. 

In fact, of the four stocks that got beat up yesterday, I believe this one represents the best opportunity. More thinly traded microcap stocks are vulnerable to these kinds of violent swings. As long as this stock remains above the $1.47 level, the uptrend remains intact and a rebound is highly likely. This one could be the best buying opportunity of the four.


NeWave gave some ground on extremely light volume. This stock is very thinly traded, but made a beautiful 50% move off the August low. The company is growing like crazy, has very high margins, and is moving into several new and exciting arenas of business.

I believe volume and interest will pick up considerably in this issue as we get nearer the end of the year. The uptrend clearly remains intact on this issue. This stock should be accumulated in the $4 range for the risk end of your portfolio.


VirTra Systems gave a lot of ground yesterday as someone decided to raise cash at any price. The chart has a big volume spike, but not nearly as big a spike as it had when the stock last traded up on good news. The up days having higher volume is a good technical sign.

VTSI's inability to break through the $.41 level earlier this month after they announced the huge sale to the Mexican FBI was a big disappointment on the technical side, but a major breakthrough on the fundamental side. This was the first major multi unit order the company had received. 

After the market closed yesterday, Chairman Kelly Jones sent out a letter to investors via email assuring everyone that nothing had changed at the company. He disclosed that the company was working on a proposal to debt holders which would allow for a conversion of debt to equity, and improve the balance sheet considerably.

The company has had a great year fundamentally. The stock has not followed suit. If the company continues on its current expansion path, the stock will follow suit at some time in the future. Perhaps the next try at $.41 will lead to the big breakthrough.

Technically, the stock broke below the uptrend line savagely, but turned around and headed straight back up. I would like to see the stock stay above $.34 to be convinced the uptrend is still intact. It is camped right at that level today. It appears the stupid seller is out, and the stock is ready to rebound. 


NuTech Digital also inexplicably got clobbered yesterday. I know of no fundamental reason for the sellers to suddenly appear, but they were certainly there.

Volume has been way above average for the last two trading days. The buyers seem to be matching the sellers at about the $.22 level. This stock has been nothing but a nightmare since the company's registration statement went effective earlier this year.

The uptrend off the September lows has been broken, and the stock is not showing any signs of rebounding the way VTSI rebounded. Technically, the only positive I could point out is that the stock has not traded below the September low, and seems to be trying to claw its way back up a little.

As far as I know, NTDL's business remains robust. Their are cash flow positive from operations, and we will see a revenue improvement in the September numbers.

This one could be good for a trade back to the downtrend line if the aggressive sellers run out of stock.



Some thoughts on the market and election in the weekend edition.


 
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