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Newsletter
November 25, 2003
Volume VI, Issue 119
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What I'm Thankful For - The Return of the Bull Market

Thanksgiving Day is set aside to remind us all to be thankful. Personally, I have more to be thankful for than I can possibly count.  Rather than regress into some sort of lament about my personal life, I will confine today's remarks to the stock market. After all, it's what you faithful readers tune in for.

I am very thankful for the return of the bull market. If you think this was a relief rally in an ongoing bear market, you are simply wrong. Growth fuels bull markets, and growth is back in a big way.

I like to keep everyone updated on earnings projections for the S&P 500. This is the broadest measure of large cap stocks, and in many ways representative of the health of the economy. Here are the most current figures as of the end of last week:

  • Trailing 52-week Operating Earnings now total $53.08. This puts the trailing 52 week operating PE at 19.5.
  • The Forward 52-week Consensus Operating EPS estimate for the SPX now stands at $60.71. Reported earnings for the past quarter rose $12.37. 
  • In the past three months, forward looking estimates have increased 17.1%.
Investors and analysts alike would do well to remember that most companies used the bear market to take significant write-downs and as many non-cash charges as possible. Companies are less burdened with outdated inventories and depreciation schedules. Small increases to the top line will therefore be magnified on the bottom line. 

Also consider this morning's revision of 3Q03 GDP. It was revised up to an 8.2% annualized rate of growth. That's the largest GDP rise since 1984. Meanwhile Consumption dipped 0.1% to 6.4%, which is strong, and exports surged more than originally estimated (no doubt fueled by a weak dollar).

In today's economic reports it was disclosed that business investment grew at a 14% rate, and corporate profits were up 10%. All in all, a rosy economic picture.

If you think there's no more upside consider this: The S&P 500 spiked to 1015 in mid June. Since that time, the index has only tacked on a 3.7% gain. There is plenty of room to run.

Certainly there will be pullbacks and rallies in the coming months. Nevertheless, if you're hanging on to your bearish argument, the facts are leaving you in the dust.

It was a pretty tough bear market. The toughest since the 1930's. Boy, am I Giving Thanks it's over.

Here's another news item which suggests I may have more to be thankful about.
 

Amnis Systems (OTC BB: AMNM) Delivers Strong Top Line Growth

I've been a bit discouraged about Amnis of late, but the stock seems to be perking back up. There has been a substantial excess supply orginating from recent financings, and it pushed the stock price down. However, the market seems to have absorbed the supply, and the stock is finally rebounding with some vigor.

Today, just after the market closed, Amnis announced the September quarterly revenues more than doubled the June quarter revenues, and came in at $516,000, suggesting this potential turnaround situation is definitely headed in the right direction. Ongoing losses were still substantial- most non-cash charges related to financings.

I think there is about a 7 in 10 chance this stock is finally headed for higher ground. It has certainly been one of the few problem children in 2003 for the OTC Journal. This is certainly one of the riskiest ideas I cover. If you are concerned about a potential loss, simply set a mental stop loss at $.025 or $.03, and just sell if it gets there. Take your lumps and move on.

Stand by for more good stuff out of this company in the coming weeks.

Here is the complete text of today's news release for your review:
 

Press Release Source: Amnis Systems Inc.

Amnis Systems Exceeds Third Quarter Revenue Goals

Tuesday November 25, 4:01 pm ET 

Amnis Systems Grows Revenues and Expands Presence in the Government Sector 

PALO ALTO, Calif., Nov. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Amnis Systems Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AMNM - News), a leading global provider of networked streaming video systems, today announced it has exceeded its revenue goals for the third quarter ending September 30, 2003. Sales for the period reached $516,185, a two-fold increase over the previous quarter. Contributing to the increase in sales are fourteen (14) separate accounts, which include Boeing, Hughes Networks, Best Buy, Matsushita (Panasonic) and Northrop Grumman. "I am very encouraged by the upward trend in revenues," said Steve Peltier, President and CEO of Amnis Systems. "This is a testament to our leadership position in the growing enterprise network video market."
In addition to the increase in revenue, the company also launched a new product line and signed two new resellers. "We had an exceptionally productive third quarter," said Mr. Peltier, "Not only did we exceed our revenue targets, we also made significant progress in other areas of the business that will ensure future revenue growth." The company recently expanded its market presence in the Government sector by opening an office in the Washington, D.C. area. "Homeland Security initiatives and other measures taken by the Federal Government have created exceptional opportunities for the company," said Mr. Peltier. " We were recently invited to attend a conference for the organizations responsible for setting video standards within the Federal Government. In addition, we will be exhibiting at the Government Technology Video Expo in Washington, D.C. We see a great deal of momentum building in this sector."

About Amnis Systems Inc.

Amnis Systems Inc., which acquired Optivision, Inc. in 2001, is the market leader in the networked streaming video market. The company develops, manufactures and delivers MPEG network video products for high-quality video creation, management and distribution worldwide both directly and through leading industry partners. Based in Palo Alto, California, Amnis Systems products are used in diverse applications such as such as surveillance, distance learning, content distribution, corporate training, telemedicine, video-on-demand and high-quality video conferencing. To find out more about Amnis Systems Inc., visit our website at www.amnisinc.com or phone 1-800-239-0600. Amnis Systems is not affiliated or related to Amnis Corporation of Seattle, Washington.

"Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products and pricing, product demand and market acceptance, new product development, reliance on key strategic alliances, availability of raw materials, the regulatory environment, fluctuations in operating results and other risks detailed from time to time in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our forward-looking statements are based on currently available information which management has assessed but which is dynamic and subject to rapid and even abrupt change due to risks and uncertainties that affect our business, including the unpredictability of future revenues and limited visibility into future demand on which to base our forecasts; the current uncertainty in our marketplace which may impact expected demand, customer selection criteria and sales cycle; our ability to execute on product deliverables and major customer contracts, slower economic growth generally, slower adoption of broadband technology, or cutbacks in information technology spending; and factors beyond our control such as power outages or work stoppages at key customers. 

    Contact Information:
     Scott Mac Caughern
     Amnis Systems Inc.
     650-855-0209
     smac@amnisinc.com
 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Amnis Systems Inc.



 


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The OTCjournal.com Newsletter is an independent electronic publication committed to providing our readers with factual information on selected  publicly traded companies. All companies are chosen on the basis of certain financial analysis and other pertinent criteria with a view toward  maximizing the upside potential for investors while minimizing the downside risk, whenever possible.  Moreover, as detailed below, this publication accepts compensation from certain of the companies which it features.  Likewise, this newsletter is owned by MarketByte, LLC.  To the degrees enumerated herein,  this newsletter should not be regarded as an independent publication.

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