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What I'm Thankful
For - The Return of the Bull Market |
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Thanksgiving Day is set aside to
remind us all to be thankful. Personally, I have more to be thankful for
than I can possibly count. Rather than regress into some sort of
lament about my personal life, I will confine today's remarks to the stock
market. After all, it's what you faithful readers tune in for.
I am very thankful for the return
of the bull market. If you think this was a relief rally in an ongoing
bear market, you are simply wrong. Growth fuels bull markets, and growth
is back in a big way.
I like to keep everyone updated on
earnings projections for the S&P 500. This is the broadest measure
of large cap stocks, and in many ways representative of the health of the
economy. Here are the most current figures as of the end of last week:
-
Trailing 52-week Operating Earnings
now total $53.08. This puts the trailing 52 week operating PE at
19.5.
-
The Forward 52-week Consensus Operating
EPS estimate for the SPX now stands at $60.71. Reported earnings
for the past quarter rose $12.37.
-
In the past three months, forward looking
estimates have increased 17.1%.
Investors and analysts alike would do
well to remember that most companies used the bear market to take significant
write-downs and as many non-cash charges as possible. Companies are less
burdened with outdated inventories and depreciation schedules. Small increases
to the top line will therefore be magnified on the bottom line.
Also consider this morning's revision
of 3Q03 GDP. It was revised up to an 8.2% annualized rate of growth.
That's the largest GDP rise since 1984. Meanwhile Consumption
dipped 0.1% to 6.4%, which is strong, and exports surged more than originally
estimated (no doubt fueled by a weak dollar).
In today's economic reports it was
disclosed that business investment grew at a 14% rate, and corporate profits
were up 10%. All in all, a rosy economic picture.
If you think there's no more upside
consider this: The S&P 500 spiked to 1015 in mid June. Since that time,
the index has only tacked on a 3.7% gain. There is plenty of room to run.
Certainly there will be pullbacks
and rallies in the coming months. Nevertheless, if you're hanging on to
your bearish argument, the facts are leaving you in the dust.
It was a pretty tough bear market.
The toughest since the 1930's. Boy, am I Giving Thanks it's over.
Here's another news item which suggests
I may have more to be thankful about.
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Amnis
Systems (OTC BB: AMNM) Delivers Strong Top Line Growth |
 |
I've been a bit discouraged about
Amnis
of late, but the stock seems to be perking back up. There has been a substantial
excess supply orginating from recent financings, and it pushed the stock
price down. However, the market seems to have absorbed the supply, and
the stock is finally rebounding with some vigor.
Today, just after the market closed,
Amnis
announced the September quarterly revenues more than doubled the June quarter
revenues, and came in at $516,000, suggesting this potential turnaround
situation is definitely headed in the right direction. Ongoing losses were
still substantial- most non-cash charges related to financings.
I think there is about a 7 in 10
chance this stock is finally headed for higher ground. It has certainly
been one of the few problem children in 2003 for the OTC Journal. This
is certainly one of the riskiest ideas I cover. If you are concerned about
a potential loss, simply set a mental stop loss at $.025 or $.03, and just
sell if it gets there. Take your lumps and move on.
Stand by for more good stuff out
of this company in the coming weeks.
Here is the complete text of today's
news release for your review:
| Press Release Source:
Amnis Systems Inc.
Amnis Systems Exceeds
Third Quarter Revenue Goals
Tuesday November 25,
4:01 pm ET
Amnis Systems Grows
Revenues and Expands Presence in the Government Sector
PALO ALTO, Calif., Nov.
25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Amnis Systems Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: AMNM
- News), a leading global provider of networked streaming video systems,
today announced it has exceeded its revenue goals for the third quarter
ending September 30, 2003. Sales for the period reached $516,185, a two-fold
increase over the previous quarter. Contributing to the increase in sales
are fourteen (14) separate accounts, which include Boeing, Hughes Networks,
Best Buy, Matsushita (Panasonic) and Northrop Grumman. "I am very encouraged
by the upward trend in revenues," said Steve Peltier, President and CEO
of Amnis Systems. "This is a testament to our leadership position in the
growing enterprise network video market."
In addition to the increase
in revenue, the company also launched a new product line and signed two
new resellers. "We had an exceptionally productive third quarter," said
Mr. Peltier, "Not only did we exceed our revenue targets, we also made
significant progress in other areas of the business that will ensure future
revenue growth." The company recently expanded its market presence in the
Government sector by opening an office in the Washington, D.C. area. "Homeland
Security initiatives and other measures taken by the Federal Government
have created exceptional opportunities for the company," said Mr. Peltier.
" We were recently invited to attend a conference for the organizations
responsible for setting video standards within the Federal Government.
In addition, we will be exhibiting at the Government Technology Video Expo
in Washington, D.C. We see a great deal of momentum building in this sector."
About Amnis Systems Inc.
Amnis Systems Inc., which
acquired Optivision, Inc. in 2001, is the market leader in the networked
streaming video market. The company develops, manufactures and delivers
MPEG network video products for high-quality video creation, management
and distribution worldwide both directly and through leading industry partners.
Based in Palo Alto, California, Amnis Systems products are used in diverse
applications such as such as surveillance, distance learning, content distribution,
corporate training, telemedicine, video-on-demand and high-quality video
conferencing. To find out more about Amnis Systems Inc., visit our website
at www.amnisinc.com or phone 1-800-239-0600. Amnis Systems is not affiliated
or related to Amnis Corporation of Seattle, Washington.
"Safe Harbor" statement
under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: This release
contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties,
including, but not limited to, the impact of competitive products and pricing,
product demand and market acceptance, new product development, reliance
on key strategic alliances, availability of raw materials, the regulatory
environment, fluctuations in operating results and other risks detailed
from time to time in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange
Commission. Our forward-looking statements are based on currently available
information which management has assessed but which is dynamic and subject
to rapid and even abrupt change due to risks and uncertainties that affect
our business, including the unpredictability of future revenues and limited
visibility into future demand on which to base our forecasts; the current
uncertainty in our marketplace which may impact expected demand, customer
selection criteria and sales cycle; our ability to execute on product deliverables
and major customer contracts, slower economic growth generally, slower
adoption of broadband technology, or cutbacks in information technology
spending; and factors beyond our control such as power outages or work
stoppages at key customers.
Contact
Information:
Scott Mac Caughern
Amnis Systems Inc.
650-855-0209
smac@amnisinc.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Amnis Systems
Inc. |
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