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To
OTC Journal Members:
The S&P 500 opened Friday morning
within four points of the first trading day of 2004. The market has achieved
a perfect standoff between the bulls and the bears this year. Perceived
future interest rate hikes, combined with rising oil prices and Middle
East/terrorism fears, versus outstanding corporate earnings and growth
have balanced each other out. Put buying is at an all time high, volume
is low, and stocks have stopped selling off. This indicates fund managers
are not selling their positions. In fact, they are simply buying puts as
an insurance policy against some unforeseen terrorism event, and hanging
on to their stocks. They are willing to give up some of their upside in
return for downside protection.
This was an interesting week. When
we look back, this week could be the "tipping point" which set up a summer
rally. In April and May, good news was bad news and bad news was bad news
as I chronicled in the April
24th edition. On Friday, for the first time in two months, good news
became good news again as the Intel mid quarter update sent the
semi conductor index back up the charts, and payroll numbers showed 250,000
new jobs were created in May. This economy has now created nearly 1
million new jobs in the past three months. The NASDAQ charged up
18 points and attempted to regain the 2000 level. The DOW added 47 and
remained solidly above its 200 day moving average. Back in April and May
the market would have sold off on this good news on fears of higher interest
rates.
In today's edition I am introducing
a new company. The timing could be perfect out in front of a potential
summer rally. The upside potential is too compelling to pass up. I first
met them back in September, and felt they needed to achieve a commercial
breakthrough before they were ready for coverage. They delivered.
Here's some background:
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The
Taser (NASDAQ: TASR) Phenomenon |
 |
You are looking at a chart of Taser,
the company that manufacturers and markets non lethal weapons designed
for police and self defense. The Taser shoots 50,000 volts through
a suspect, temporarily paralyzing the target without any permanent damage.
Taser was probably the most
talked about stock on the NASDAQ during the first quarter. Short sellers
who bet against the company's fundamentals were met with nasty upside surprises
for three consecutive quarters. This is the chart of a classic short squeeze.
Taser
achieved $13.1 million in sales in the March quarter, up from $3.4
million the previous year in the same quarter. You would think the
company delivered $1 billion in revenues from looking at the chart.
Despite the major correction in the
April/May sell off, the market is still placing a huge premium on the company's
growth potential. They make a product which could end up in every police
car in the US eventually, and the market is willing to pay up for this
potential.
There are many similarities between
today's new company and Taser, as follows:
-
Both companies are located in Scottsdale,
AZ within site of each other.
-
Both companies use the same attorney
for patent work and Intellectual Property Protection
-
Both companies have unique products
with no real competition which could end up in the hands of many law enforcement
officers.
-
In its first year of commercial introduction,
Taser
achieved $2.5 million in sales. Our new company's first commercial contract
was announced last week: you guessed it- $2.4 million.
There are also some differences:
-
Our new company has much larger market
potential- it includes all emergency response agencies (i.e. Fire, Police,
Paramedics, etc.).
-
This new company's business has much
less potential liability as they don't injure anyone.
Over the past six months I have been
approached by at least a dozen "Taser Wannabe's". I passed on all
of them. However, this company is the real deal. Aegis has very
powerful technology solutions for the well chronicled problems of inadequate
and unreliable wireless communications for pubic safety organizations.
Simply put, when the police, fire
department, paramedics, and any other emergency responder shows up at a
disaster site, they cannot talk to each other. The 911 commission and SAFECOM
findings have put this issue in the forefront of emergency response problems.
Here is the solution, just on the
heels of their first of what I believe will be many future contracts:
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Aegis Assessments
(OTC BB: AGSI): First Major Commercial Breakthrough |
|
| "Fifty-two [Los Angeles, California] County
law enforcement agencies which serve and protect our citizens have very
little ability to communicate with one another. It is literally easier
for officers from different departments to yell out of their car to each
other than it is for them to dial up on their radio frequencies — that
is unacceptable."
Rep. Jane Harman, the Ranking Democrat
on the House Subcommittee on Terrorism and Homeland Security |
The primary arm of the US Department
of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Division is known as "SAFECOM".
On March 10, 2004, SAFECOM published a statement of requirements
for Public Safety Wireless Communications and Interoperability. Click
Here if you wish to read the report. Here is the opening statement:
"Inadequate
and unreliable wireless communications have been plaguing public safety
organizations for decades"
In short, emergency response teams,
whether they be fire, police, paramedics, or military cannot communicate.
The problem is in the headlines nearly every day, and was brought out in
detail during the recent 911 hearings.
Aegis Assessments has the
most elegant, and cost effective solution to the problem on the market
today. If anyone knows of anything better, please email me the information.
You are looking at a picture of the
company's revolutionary new "Radio Bridge" product. Local
law enforcement, fire departments and emergency medical personnel often
are in a situation where they are equipped with hand-held radios that cannot
communicate with one another. When they show up at a major disaster, they
cannot talk to each other. Currently, they are operating on different frequencies
or use different modulation schemes. The SafetyNet™ Radio Bridge™
solves this problem inexpensively and with no pre configuration. The SafetyNet™
Radio Bridge™ interconnects these radios instantly and bridges these
devices far beyond their normal capabilities.
I have seen a demonstration of the
product in front of a committee from SAFECOM. It's about the size
of a large brief case and battery operated. It's amazingly simple. Once
a commander shows up at an emergency site, he opens the case, and plugs
in a hand set from each of the emergency response units. They can then
talk to each other over their own individual wireless devices with no modifications.
The devices can separate them into groups, and allow them to talk with
each other either in mass or selectively simply by adjusting the dials.
The product sells to the end user
for $20,000 per unit, and the company booked its first $2.4
million order early last week. I believe this is the first of many
orders the company will receive this year. Click
Here to read the press release.
For competitive reasons, the company
does not want me to disclose their profit margins. However, I can tell
you they are outstanding.
There are two other products Aegis
has
developed, which are now being commercially introduced.
 |
Mobile
Command Center and Wireless Safety System |
 |
This is Aegis's mobile command
center. This is a more advanced version of the Radio Bridge product, and
acts as a complete mobile command post for directing relief efforts in
a emergency situation.
There are a couple different versions.
Another has multiple video screens for monitoring remote video camera deployments.
Voice, data, and video are all combined with this unit, and they communicate
through a self created WAN (wide area network). Visit the Aegis's
web site at www.aegiscorporate.com
for more pictures and descriptions.
The wireless communications have
a range of about 5 miles, and work on the new 802.11G wireless IP protocol.
In essence, the unit sets up its own local wireless internet to facilitate
communications.
The mobile video camera you see here
can be deployed throughout any kind of disaster site. The commander can
then monitor activity throughout the emergency site through both voice
and video, and deploy teams as needed.
Aegis has also developed a
Wireless
Safety version of this product designed for installation in high rise
buildings. It is being unveiled later this week at the Associated Builders
and Owners of Greater New York Tradeshow beginning June 8, 2004 at the
Jacob Javits Convention Center in New York City.
The battery powered mobile video
cameras can be easily installed at strategic points. They don't require
and external power source, are very inexpensive, and will broadcast an
encrypted signal over 802.11G.
In the event of a fire, a commander
could then pull up in front of the building with the Wireless Safety
System Command Center. He can simply open the case, activate the internal
cameras, and see where the danger spots are. Firefighters are put at risk
most in situations where they don't know what they will be encountering.
This is an inexpensive and universal solution to the problem.
Internal video monitoring systems
can be useful in these situations, but don't work on a universal platform.
Responders need to locate the control room and get access. This can cost
precious seconds in an emergency situation when lives and property are
at stake.
 |
Conclusion |
 |
The market for the Radio Bridge
product is mind boggling. It is estimated there are 2.5 million public
safety first responders in the US alone, represented by 44,000
different agencies. None of them can talk to each other at an emergency
site. As Congresswoman Harman points out, they'd be better off rolling
down their windows and yelling at each other.
In FY 2003, Congress appropriated
$154
million, earmarked exclusively for Communications Inter Operability.
That money is just beginning to find its way towards investment in solutions
now.
Working in Aegis's favor is
the unfortunate reality that emergency response agencies are highly competitive.
Each wants to take command at a site, and there are no clearly defined
hierarchy boundaries. Therefore, once one agency has the Radio Bridge
Product, they will all have to have it in order to compete for control.
You are getting an exclusive first
look at a company few people know about. They just received the first order
for 200 units, and these are earmarked by the distributor for NY
City alone. The rest of the country should follow suit shortly.
I expect the company to start delivering
sales on the Mobile Command Center and Wireless Safety Systems
later this year.
On the slightly negative side there
are two issues. First, with 12.7 million shares issued and outstanding
the market is valuing the company at just under $50 million. The company
must deliver more sales to justify this valuation. If they achieve even
a small market penetration, this obstacle should be easily overcome.
Second, the balance sheet is weak
and will need to be improvement. Management has self financed to this point,
but I expect an outside funding source will get involved soon to help them
ramp up for major production.
As stated above, very few people
know about this company. The stock is thinly traded, and there are no registration
statements pending which could create an excess supply. The stock could
be volatile on light volume. The company estimates there are only about
1.2 million shares in the public float.
The best strategy in a situation
like this is to use a limit order and have some patience in accumulating.
The stock closed at $3.80 on Friday. My suggestion is to use a limit
order of $4, and keep it out there even if it takes a few days to
fill. I strongly recommend everyone have at least some of this stock in
their microcap portfolio. The upside is extremely compelling.
The unfortunate reality of today's
world suggests there are likely to be more terrorism events on US soil.
If so, this stock could trade well as the rest of the market tanks, thereby
acting as an insurance policy for your microcap portfolio against an event
related sell off.
FY 2006 will bring a Homeland Security
budget of $170 billion. A very small piece of that pie should equate
to a big return in AGSI.
Charts Provided Courtesy
Of TradePortal.com |